SouthPAC: NORA - Tropical Cyclone

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

94P INVEST
As of 18:00 UTC Mar 20, 2018:

Location: 8.2°S 136.8°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb






Some models suggesting this disturbance may evolve into a gnarly cyclone down stream.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 35 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 110 kilometres of 9.4 degrees South 136.4 degrees East, estimated to be 315 kilometres north of Nhulunbuy and 340 kilometres north northeast of Milingimbi.

Movement: south southwest at 13 kilometres per hour.

A tropical low is developing north of Nhulunbuy in the Arafura Sea. While the tropical low will initially move towards the west or southwest, it is expected to turn eastwards, towards the Gulf of Carpentaria, early on Thursday morning before taking a more southeasterly path on Friday.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

GFS goes with a deep cyclone in GOC. Very good divergence/convergence and a jet for the outflow to the south.... Shear is ???able atm.









mb's are in the low 930',

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

WTPS31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 10.2S 136.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 349 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE
BAND WRAPPING IN FROM THE WEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF
35 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM ADRM,
COUPLED WITH A 220054Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF 30-35
KNOT WINDS IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS
MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SSTS (29-30C). TC 16P IS
BEING STEERED BY A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE TO ITS EAST. THE STORM
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 BEFORE TURNING TO
THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY TO THE WEST AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER
CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE STORM WILL INTENSIFY, SLOWLY AT FIRST, THEN
MORE RAPIDLY AS VWS DECREASES. THE PEAK INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 85
KNOTS BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A LARGE SPREAD, WITH
SEVERAL MODELS BRINGING IT SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAPE OF YORK AND OTHER
MODELS TURNING IT BACK TO THE WEST AFTER COMING ASHORE IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CARPENTARIA. THIS SPREAD IS LEADING TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z,
230900Z AND 231500Z.//

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

look like the cyclone had established a core.



Lots of low level cloud looks the precursor to a eyewall formation in the not to distant future down stream.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Looking a Nachon fuelled special is brewing here.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

FKAU01 ADRM 221938
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20180322/1800Z
TCAC: DARWIN
TC: NORA
NR: 03
PSN: S0954 E13642
MOV: SLW
C: 992HPA
MAX WIND: 35KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 23/0000 S1006 E13718
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 40KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 23/0600 S1030 E13754
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 45KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 23/1200 S1106 E13836
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 50KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 23/1800 S1148 E13912
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 55KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20180323/0130Z

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm
RSMC Initialized


Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 MAR 2018 Time : 231000 UTC
Lat : 9:53:34 S Lon : 136:40:39 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.2 / 975.6mb/ 69.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.2 4.7 5.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.6mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -33.3C Cloud Region Temp : -71.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 12.5 degrees

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 03222108
SATCON: MSLP = 993 hPa MSW = 46 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 46.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 48 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 215 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA

Member Estimates

ADT: 1000 hPa 41 knots Scene: CDO Date: MAR222030
CIMSS AMSU: 992 hPa 48 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 03221107
ATMS: 982.0 hPa 54.5 knots Date: 03221557
SSMIS: 991.0 hPa 57.0 knots Date: 03222108
CIRA ATMS: 993 hPa 45 knots Date: 03221558

[Yellow Evan]

SH, 16, 201803222330, 10, DVTS, CI, , 990S, 13690E, , 2, 35, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , P, KNES, JV, VIM, 3, 2525 /////, , , HMWRI8, LLCC, T, DT=2.5 BO CBND MET=1.5 PT=2.0 FTBO DT

I beg to differ.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

35KTS looks undercooked to me. Around 50 maybe.



JTWC going for 120kts. Hwrf was forecasting that intensity a few days ago.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

on 2nd thoughts given there is a pin/E i would go with a cat1 >64 T4

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

upgraded on the run
CATEGORY 2 (tropical cyclone)
Minor house damage. Significant damage to signs, trees and caravans. Heavy damage to some crops. Risk of power failure. Small craft may break moorings.
A Category 2 cyclone's strongest winds are DESTRUCTIVE winds with typical gusts over open flat land of 125 - 164 km/h. These winds correspond to Beaufort 10 and 11 (Storm and violent storm).

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0150 UTC 23/03/2018
Name: Tropical Cyclone Nora
Identifier: 22U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 9.9S
Longitude: 137.0E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: east [090 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [5 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 986 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5 6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 23/0600: 10.4S 137.7E: 030 [055]: 055 [100]: 984
+12: 23/1200: 10.9S 138.4E: 035 [065]: 060 [105]: 980
+18: 23/1800: 11.5S 139.1E: 040 [075]: 060 [115]: 977
+24: 24/0000: 12.2S 139.7E: 050 [090]: 070 [125]: 973
+36: 24/1200: 13.6S 140.4E: 070 [130]: 080 [145]: 964
+48: 25/0000: 14.7S 140.7E: 090 [165]: 085 [155]: 957
+60: 25/1200: 15.4S 140.8E: 110 [200]: 085 [155]: 958
+72: 26/0000: 15.8S 140.9E: 125 [235]: 080 [150]: 960
+96: 27/0000: 16.1S 140.7E: 170 [315]: 075 [135]: 966
+120: 28/0000: 16.9S 138.1E: 260 [480]: 060 [105]: 982
REMARKS:
Satellite imagery depicts an increasingly organised system with deep convection
encircling the system and strong convective bursts apparent near the LLCC.

Confidence in the location of the LLCC is reasonably good, based on a
combination of VIS satellite imagery and RADAR imagery, with the system centre
now visible on the edge of the Gove radar. Microwave imagery is consistent with
satellite and radar imagery. After recent slow movement to the east, radar
imagery in the last hour indicates the system has commenced a more southeasterly
track, consistent with official forecast track.

Dvorak analysis at 0000Z yielded a CI of 3.5, based on a 3h averaged DT of 3.5
using a 0.8 wrap. MET was set at 3.0 while PAT equaled 3.5. At 0000UTC, CIMSS
ADT was 3.3 while NESDIS ADT was 3.6. SATCON estimate of 46 knots at 22_2108UTC.
Intensity is set at 50 knots [10 min-mean]. Cape Wessel Automatic Weather
Station [66nm south of the system] reported gales between 2300 and 2400UTC, but
has since reduced as the system tracked further east away from the station. UTC.


CIMSS at 0000UTC indicated the vertical wind shear is northeasterly between 5
and 10 knots, with Nora lying beneath an upper ridge. CIMMS analysis also
depicts poleward and equatorward outflow channels, suggesting significant
further development is likely during today.

The system is expected to reach peak intensity as a Category 3 [85 kn] tropical
cyclone Saturday night/Sunday morning. During Sunday, an increase in vertical
wind shear and land interaction are expected to restrict further development and
ultimately weaken the system. NWP is varied in the maximum intensity of this
system.

The system is currently being steered to the east southeast by a westerly wind
surge, which will take it into the Gulf of Carpentaria during today. A weakness
in the mid-level ridge over southern Queensland allows the system to adopt a
southwards track into the southern Gulf of Carpentaria during Saturday and
Sunday. Most NWP tracks follow this scenario although UK and ACCESS-G take a
more easterly track over Cape York Peninsula. The influence of a mid-level ridge
over Western Australia is expected to slow the movement of the system from
Sunday over the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria and from Monday, west-southwest is
expected to take the system over inland Australia.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 23/0800 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm
RSMC Initialized


Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 MAR 2018 Time : 011000 UTC
Lat : 9:55:49 S Lon : 136:46:40 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.2 / 976.3mb/ 69.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.8 3.7 3.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +4.3mb

Center Temp : -68.5C Cloud Region Temp : -69.3C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 12.5 degrees

[1900hurricane]

Shear is low and the surrounding environment is considerably more moist than the one that was surrounding Marcus. With an inner core building and provided it avoids too much land interaction, Nora will probably go up fast.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

I put this down to a intensifying system where the dvorak technique fails.
There was a hurricane a few years back in the ATL had v/poor dvorark numbers recon found a cane. Ascat would good atm. Koba ci likely is better match with kts for this cyclone.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

16P NORA 180323 0600 10.6S 138.1E SHEM 65 980

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

FKAU01 ADRM 230118
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20180323/0000Z
TCAC: DARWIN
TC: NORA
NR: 04
PSN: S0954 E13700
MOV: SLW
C: 986HPA
MAX WIND: 50KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 23/0600 S1024 E13742
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 55KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 23/1200 S1054 E13824
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 60KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 23/1800 S1130 E13906
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 60KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 24/0000 S1212 E13942
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 70KT
RMK: NIL

They are going c4 aussie

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

FKAU01 ADRM 230729
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20180323/0600Z
TCAC: DARWIN
TC: NORA
NR: 05
PSN: S1024 E13800
MOV: ESE 11KT
C: 980HPA
MAX WIND: 60KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 23/1200 S1054 E13842
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 70KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 23/1800 S1130 E13918
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 80KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 24/0000 S1212 E13954
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 90KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 24/0600 S1254 E14024
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 95KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20180323/1330Z

[doomhaMwx]

Rapidly organizing/strengthening.

[euro6208]

Such a big difference between JTWC and SAB. Both are well underestimating this.

TXPS25 KNES 230630
TCSWSP

A. 16P (NORA)

B. 23/0530Z

C. 10.3S

D. 137.7E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM
IR DATA. 9/10 W BANDING FOR A DT=4.0 INCLUDING +0.5 FOR W TEMP
ADJUSTMENT. MET=2.5. PT=3.0. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING MAX FT
TO 2.5 DURING FIRST 24 HRS OF DEVELOPMENT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEE

TPPS11 PGTW 230935

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA)

B. 23/0900Z

C. 10.96S

D. 138.40E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T4.5/4.5/D3.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 5.5. MET 3.0. PT 4.0. DBO CONSTRAINTS. BROKE CONSTRAINTS DUE
TO SIGNIFICANT CNVCTN AND EYE DEVELOPMENT. EYE DIAMETER 20NM.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
23/0607Z 10.55S 138.15E SSMI


DAVIS

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 MAR 2018 Time : 104000 UTC
Lat : 10:57:38 S Lon : 138:40:25 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 984.6mb/ 63.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.8 4.3 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -26.7C Cloud Region Temp : -79.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 110km
- Environmental MSLP : 1005mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 13.1 degrees

****************************************************