#319 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Jul 22, 2018 9:57 pm
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
Another older storm I'm going to look at is Hurricane David of 1979:
(Red - stronger, Green - weaker, Blue - new point)
AL091979, DAVID, 61,
19790825, 0000, , TD, 11.8N, 32.0W, 25, 1010, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790825, 0600, , TD, 11.8N, 34.1W, 30, 1008, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790825, 1200, , TS, 11.7N, 36.1W, 35, 1006, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790825, 1800, , TS, 11.7N, 38.2W, 45, 1003, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790826, 0000, , TS, 11.7N, 40.3W, 45, 1003, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790826, 0600, , TS, 11.6N, 42.2W, 50, 1001, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790826, 1200, , TS, 11.6N, 44.0W, 55, 998, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790826, 1800, , TS, 11.6N, 45.5W, 60, 995, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790827, 0000, , HU, 11.7N, 47.0W, 65, 992, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790827, 0600, , HU, 11.8N, 48.5W, 75, 983, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790827, 1200, , HU, 11.8N, 50.0W, 90, 968, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790827, 1800, , HU, 11.9N, 51.5W, 105, 954, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790828, 0000, , HU, 12.2N, 52.9W, 120, 944, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790828, 0600, , HU, 12.5N, 54.4W, 125, 941, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790828, 1200, , HU, 12.8N, 55.7W, 130, 937, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790828, 1800, , HU, 13.2N, 56.9W, 120, 943, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790829, 0000, , HU, 13.7N, 58.0W, 105, 952, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790829, 0600, , HU, 14.2N, 59.2W, 115, 945, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790829, 1200, , HU, 14.8N, 60.3W, 125, 938, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790829, 1645, L, HU, 15.2N, 61.3W, 130, 936, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790829, 1800, , HU, 15.3N, 61.6W, 130, 935, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790830, 0000, , HU, 15.6N, 62.8W, 140, 927, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790830, 0600, , HU, 16.0N, 64.2W, 140, 924, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790830, 1200, , HU, 16.3N, 65.2W, 135, 924, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790830, 1800, , HU, 16.6N, 66.2W, 125, 931, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790831, 0000, , HU, 16.8N, 67.3W, 130, 931, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790831, 0600, , HU, 17.0N, 68.3W, 135, 928, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790831, 1200, , HU, 17.2N, 69.1W, 140, 926, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790831, 1800, , HU, 17.9N, 69.7W, 145, 921, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790831, 2030, L, HU, 18.3N, 70.0W, 150, 918, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790901, 0000, , HU, 18.8N, 70.4W, 95, 945, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790901, 0600, , HU, 19.3N, 72.0W, 65, 985, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790901, 1200, , TS, 19.7N, 73.7W, 50, 1002, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790901, 1800, , TS, 20.6N, 74.6W, 45, 997, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790902, 0000, , TS, 21.3N, 75.2W, 50, 992, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790902, 0600, , TS, 21.9N, 75.5W, 55, 990, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790902, 1200, , HU, 23.0N, 76.3W, 65, 981, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790902, 1800, , HU, 23.9N, 77.4W, 70, 979, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790902, 1930, L, HU, 24.1N, 77.6W, 75, 975, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790903, 0000, , HU, 24.6N, 78.2W, 80, 968, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790903, 0600, , HU, 25.3N, 79.1W, 80, 972, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790903, 1200, , HU, 26.3N, 79.6W, 85, 967, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790903, 1600, L, HU, 26.7N, 80.1W, 90, 960, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790903, 1800, , HU, 27.2N, 80.2W, 90, 960, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790904, 0000, , HU, 28.0N, 80.5W, 85, 965, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790904, 0230, L, HU, 28.4N, 80.6W, 85, 968, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790904, 0600, , HU, 29.1N, 80.8W, 85, 968, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790904, 1200, , HU, 30.2N, 80.9W, 85, 969, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790904, 1800, L, HU, 31.5N, 81.2W, 85, 966, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790905, 0000, , HU, 32.5N, 81.1W, 65, 972, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790905, 0600, , TS, 33.5N, 80.9W, 50, 976, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790905, 1200, , TS, 34.9N, 80.6W, 45, 980, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790905, 1800, , TS, 36.2N, 80.1W, 40, 982, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790906, 0000, , TS, 37.6N, 79.5W, 40, 987, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790906, 0600, , TS, 39.2N, 78.5W, 40, 989, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790906, 1200, , TS, 41.5N, 76.3W, 40, 991, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790906, 1800, , EX, 43.3N, 73.7W, 40, 992, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790907, 0000, , EX, 45.0N, 70.0W, 40, 991, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790907, 0600, , EX, 46.5N, 66.0W, 45, 988, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790907, 1200, , EX, 47.5N, 61.5W, 45, 987, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790907, 1800, , EX, 50.0N, 57.0W, 45, 986, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19790908, 0000, , EX, 52.5N, 52.5W, 45, 985, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
* Genesis, with uncertainty, is moved up 12 hours. The first images I find, a few hours after the time of HURDAT genesis (at 25 kt) suggests around T3.0-3.5 already. I conservatively went with 45 kt at that point and backed it up to 0000Z.
* Pre-Recon intensities are increased based on satellite images, and at the first Recon flight (952 mb) I went with 105 kt.
* Little change is made in the rapid intensification on August 27-28, but around midday on the 28th, it appears David underwent an ERC and the pressure rose quite a bit, hence a brief lowering to 105 kt (after a peak of 130 kt) early on the 29th.
* The long period as a cat 5 in the eastern Caribbean is broken up. David crossed Dominica (south of where Maria did) as a cat 4, then peaked soon after at 140 kt. Thereafter, an ERC occurred again and the intensity is brought down as low as 125 kt (instead of 145-150 kt).
* After the ERC, it was clear that David was deepening. Pressure fell from 931 to 924 in the morning of the 31st. Unfortunately, there were no more Recon flights before landfall. Satellite images suggested even further deepening occurred and it may have been rapid. As a result, a possibly conservative pressure of 918 mb was estimated - the new minimum - and the original intensity of 150 kt was maintained.
* Very rapid weakening occurred early on September 1st over Hispaniola. By the time David emerged, pressure was 1002! Satellite didn't suggest a well organized storm either. Intensity is brought down to 50 kt, and then 45 kt shortly thereafter despite the lower pressure - the signature was even worse then.
* Steady re-strengthening began thereafter. However, surface obs over Florida (at multiple locations) suggest much lower pressures than Recon, which bottomed out in the low 970s. The lowest pressure was 960 mb in Vero Beach. Based on that data, it is estimated that David actually made landfall (not a near miss) in SE Florida at 90 kt with the 960 pressure. Due to the parallel track, another landfall is added at Cape Canaveral.
* The intensity largely held steady until final landfall in the middle Georgia coast. The lowest pressure in GA was 970 mb at the Savannah airport (west of town). Based on slight weakening in the few hours before that time (it was over marshland), the landfall intensity is set at 966 mb and 85 kt.
* No significant changes are made to the post-landfall track.
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