WTIO30 FMEE 141822 RRA 2018073 1906
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/7/20172018
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7
2.A POSITION 2018/03/14 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1 S / 55.0 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.0/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :93 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/03/15 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 53.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/03/15 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 51.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/03/16 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 50.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/03/16 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 49.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/03/17 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 49.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/03/17 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 49.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/03/18 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 50.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/03/19 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5- CI=2.0
wxtlist.k: done
WTXS21 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2S 56.2E TO 15.1S 52.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.5S 55.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.2S
56.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 55.7E, APPROXIMATELY 650 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY AND A 140024Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW FLARING
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A COHESIVE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) FROM ALL SIDES. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW (10-15 KNOTS) OVER
99S WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN WARM (27-29 CELSIUS) IN THE VICINITY OF MADAGASCAR. GLOBAL
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON 99S REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH (34
KTS) IN 12-24 HOURS, WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF JGSM AND ECMWF
DEVELOPING IT MUCH LATER. MODELS ARE IN GOOD NEAR TERM AGREEMENT AS
99S TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150300Z.//
NNNN
https://www.mtotec.com/page-satellite