Texas Winter 2017-2018

[bubba hotep]

Euro Weeklies are once again showing a wet look for the eastern half of Texas on into Louisiana with temps slightly above normal but cooling as it moves through March.

Without looking, I can envision that rain line is somewhere around Canton or Tyler.

Things look pretty good for most of Texas with the exception being the Panhandle. There is persistent western troughing with systems kicking out across the state, so many chances for soaking rains.

[Ntxw]

0z NAM out to Sat evening has DFW approaching freezing with precip coming in from the west

[Ntxw]

Euro Weeklies are once again showing a wet look for the eastern half of Texas on into Louisiana with temps slightly above normal but cooling as it moves through March.

Without looking, I can envision that rain line is somewhere around Canton or Tyler.

Things look pretty good for most of Texas with the exception being the Panhandle. There is persistent western troughing with systems kicking out across the state, so many chances for soaking rains.

SOI still in the tank. All of February has been negative. This signal is money in winter for QPF

[Ntxw]

And like that 0z NAM shuts the faucet off after scattered stuff

The main difference from 18z is no disturbance coming out of northern Mexico, the blind spot

[Theepicman116]

NAM Giveth, NAM taketh

[Ralph's Weather]

It looks like txdot is pre treating roads in NTX and not taking the chance. Good for them

Same around Tyler.

[Brent]

I knew the NAM couldn't stay consistent

[Quixotic]

NAM was money with the last system. Money.

[Haris]

And like that 0z NAM shuts the faucet off after scattered stuff

The main difference from 18z is no disturbance coming out of northern Mexico, the blind spot

We need that to come in order for atx to see anything. I hope it reappears 06z

[Brent]

NAM was money with the last system. Money.

I dunno, it failed on the icy DFW Tuesday Night it showed on some runs

[orangeblood]

And like that 0z NAM shuts the faucet off after scattered stuff

The main difference from 18z is no disturbance coming out of northern Mexico, the blind spot

Seems like the main difference is it isn't nearly as deep with the trough cutting through northern NM, doesn't bring the lift mechanism far enough south....still time for it to shift though

[downsouthman1]

And like that 0z NAM shuts the faucet off after scattered stuff

The main difference from 18z is no disturbance coming out of northern Mexico, the blind spot

Seems like the main difference is it isn't nearly as deep with the trough cutting through northern NM, doesn't bring the lift mechanism far enough south....still time for it to shift though

Models don't forecast anything coming out of Mexico well. We've all seen that time and again.

[Brent]

Euro is just barely too warm for frozen it appears in DFW this weekend(though it does show some very light precip)

then the cold air vanishes

Big rain event though in DFW next weekend with temps in the 60s

[orangeblood]

With continued cold across our source region, a sustained -EPO and a STJ that appears to be coming to life, I'm really liking the setup for the later 1/4th of the winter period. 2m temp forecasts on the EPS looks way off.... with the -EPO push, I seriously doubt we're going to be seeing warm anomalies such as this

[Yukon Cornelius]

Looking at the weekend and next weeks forecast, I have never seen so many back and forth forecasted highs and lows. One day in the 50s, a few hours later its been changed to the 30s, back to the 50s maybe 60 a few hours later, the next morning its changed back to the 30s. If someone has no understanding of weather and relies on NOAAs forecast strictly I'm sure its extremely confusing during this period.

[bubba hotep]

Overnight model runs were pretty blah with basically all guidance cutting back totals across DFW for this weekend.

[orangeblood]

Overnight model runs were pretty blah with basically all guidance cutting back totals across DFW for this weekend.

Yep, can't catch any breaks around here...going on for years now

[Portastorm]

Hope you're right about that, orangeblood. I have to admit that what I am seeing in the models is overwhelming my knowledge that the models may not be very accurate past 5 days due to all of the volatility that we have talked about. I kinda have that "well, is this it?!" feeling about winter. Gotta keep the faith!

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS with an epic winter storm for portions of NW Texas and Oklahoma, just misses DFW to the NW.

[losf1981]

12z GFS with an epic winter storm for portions of NW Texas and Oklahoma, just misses DFW to the NW.

tell me more of this.....