#3 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jan 26, 2018 4:38 am
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 2.8N 155.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 1.8N 153.9E, APPROXIMATELY 350
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FLARING CONVECTION. A 252347Z AMSU-B 89GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS THE ELONGATED LLCC WITH POCKETS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER WITH SHALLOW FRAGMENTED BANDING PRESENT, BUT WITH WEAKER
DEFINITION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA WITH GOOD
DIFFLUENCE, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS), HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM LACKS
SUFFICIENT POLEWARD DISPLACEMENT AND IS UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP AS IT
TRACKS GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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