Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Rgv20]

Little tidbit from the afternoon discussion from the NWS Brownsville.....I can't recall when was the last time they have issued a Wind Chill Warning

In addition to the cold ambient temperatures, life-threatening wind
chill values are expected Tuesday into Wednesday. A Wind Chill
Advisory goes into effect for all of Deep South Texas early
afternoon on Tuesday with a Wind Chill Warning for the Rio Grande
Valley (Cameron, Willacy, Hidalgo, Starr) starting at 10chill values PM CST.
Wind chill values are expected to drop into the teens overnight and
will likely remain in the 20s throughout the entire day Wednesday.

[Ralph's Weather]

Discounting the NAM, which I think is safe at this point, all models are showing me (15mi NW of Tyler) to get 0.3-0.5" liquid while temps are subfreezing. Say the first 0.1" is sleet or freezing rain that still yields 3-6" of snow here which is about what the models are showing. All models besides the NAM also have me at 15-20 for a low in the morning with light snow still ongoing. And a high in the 20-25 range. Wed morning in the 5-15 range here. Gonna be a crazy ride here. Everyone stay safe.

[Brent]

I can already tell an all nighter is not in the cards for me, unless it is snowing around 9 tonight. What I might do is set my alarm an hour or two earlier than the usual 3:30. If anyone can guesstimate, about what time might we start seeing some snow fly?

if it's not snowing in Dallas by 9-10pm tonight I dont think its happening(or certainly not worthy of seeing). Our window is so narrow and early. It looks like by midnight most of it is over with in the metro.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I know we are focused on our storm but a Huge volcanic eruption in the Philippines happened today. These things tend to have an effect on weather.

Interesting. Usually as to what sort?

Last several large eruptions tend to cool the globe significantly. I believe there was an eruption in 1984 that led to our severe January 1985 winter.

There are several articles out there on volcanic eruptions and the succeeding weather patterns

[gpsnowman]

I can already tell an all nighter is not in the cards for me, unless it is snowing around 9 tonight. What I might do is set my alarm an hour or two earlier than the usual 3:30. If anyone can guesstimate, about what time might we start seeing some snow fly?

if it's not snowing in Dallas by 9-10pm tonight I dont think its happening(or certainly not worthy of seeing). Our window is so narrow and early. It looks like by midnight most of it is over with in the metro.

That is what I was afraid of. Guess I will just wake up normal time and see if anything fell.

[opticsguy]

I remember going into my back yard at night during the Dec 2013 ice storm in Dallas. It was calm and quiet, except for the sound of a branch breaking every few seconds, and about every 15 seconds or so I could see the flash of a powerline going down or a transformer exploding. That's when I learned how important it is to cover you solar panels during freezing rain.

I don't think it will be that bad, but there has been a lot of tree growth next to power lines in the last 4 years.

[orangeblood]

I can already tell an all nighter is not in the cards for me, unless it is snowing around 9 tonight. What I might do is set my alarm an hour or two earlier than the usual 3:30. If anyone can guesstimate, about what time might we start seeing some snow fly?

In DFW, the bulk will be between 8pm to Midnight/1am

[Browndog]

Discounting the NAM, which I think is safe at this point, all models are showing me (15mi NW of Tyler) to get 0.3-0.5" liquid while temps are subfreezing. Say the first 0.1" is sleet or freezing rain that still yields 3-6" of snow here which is about what the models are showing. All models besides the NAM also have me at 15-20 for a low in the morning with light snow still ongoing. And a high in the 20-25 range. Wed morning in the 5-15 range here. Gonna be a crazy ride here. Everyone stay safe.

I'm with you Ralph. I agree with your assumptions. Can't wait for this to start. Gonna be an all nighter!

[wxman57]

Stopped by my local neighborhood Walmart Grocery store on the way home (not the big store) and I think the word got out that the world is coming to an end soon. I've never seen so many people waiting in line. I left and went to Belden's, where there were no lines. All I needed for my winter storm supplies was a bag of potato chips.

I'm taking a change of clothes and toiletries to work tomorrow in case I can't drive home (from Hobby) tomorrow after work. I know I can take surface streets all the way home (W. Belfort) but just in case...

An "all-nighter"? Yeah. I'll be sleeping all night.

[cheezyWXguy]

In addition to the HRRR trend of increasing accumulations with each successive run, I am noticing that the window of ice in DFW between rain and snow is decreasing too, which seems more reasonable given our setup and the callouts made earlier. It is possible that the HRRR is overstating totals, but as said this morning, I think this will end up closer to the HRRR than the NAM.

[Ntxw]

I can already tell an all nighter is not in the cards for me, unless it is snowing around 9 tonight. What I might do is set my alarm an hour or two earlier than the usual 3:30. If anyone can guesstimate, about what time might we start seeing some snow fly?

if it's not snowing in Dallas by 9-10pm tonight I dont think its happening(or certainly not worthy of seeing). Our window is so narrow and early. It looks like by midnight most of it is over with in the metro.

That is what I was afraid of. Guess I will just wake up normal time and see if anything fell.

You might miss the near blizzard conditions if it snows!

[wxman57]

Very limited moisture up north in the DFW area. Not so limited farther south. Going to be a messy day tomorrow.

[Browndog]

Stopped by my local neighborhood Walmart Grocery store on the way home (not the big store) and I think the word got out that the world is coming to an end soon. I've never seen so many people waiting in line. I left and went to Belden's, where there were no lines. All I needed for my winter storm supplies was a bag of potato chips.

I'm taking a change of clothes and toiletries to work tomorrow in case I can't drive home (from Hobby) tomorrow after work. I know I can take surface streets all the way home (W. Belfort) but just in case...

An "all-nighter"? Yeah. I'll be sleeping all night.

Haha!!! Yeah, my stuff will be here between 12a and 6a, so I gotta stay up. You sleep in wxman57, and I'll send you pictures of the frozen north!!!

[gpsnowman]

if it's not snowing in Dallas by 9-10pm tonight I dont think its happening(or certainly not worthy of seeing). Our window is so narrow and early. It looks like by midnight most of it is over with in the metro.

That is what I was afraid of. Guess I will just wake up normal time and see if anything fell.

You might miss the near blizzard conditions if it snows!

I would hate to miss that for sure. We will see, maybe the radar in a few hours changes my mind

[Ntxw]

For you NAM huggers, there are radar returns in SE Oklahoma for which the NAM had none

[WeatherDuck]

Several Central Texas ISDs have already announced closures for tomorrow.

[longhornweather]

Very limited moisture up north in the DFW area. Not so limited farther south. Going to be a messy day tomorrow.

I’m sure you are busy but if you have time, I would love to hear your thoughts for Austin area.

[Yukon Cornelius]

35 here with a windchill of 16. This wind ain’t no joke.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Is DFW about to get duped again??? Probably no snow??

Seems as such...yet again. This winter has been a big ol bust so far. Just cold weather doesn't make a winter.

[PineyWoods]

Very limited moisture up north in the DFW area. Not so limited farther south. Going to be a messy day tomorrow.

Do you have any thoughts on available moisture in Tyler for this event tonight?
Thanks