Texas Winter 2017-2018

[DFWLady]

Not looking good for us in the DFW area. WHYYYYYYY

Why do you say that?

[iorange55]

Not looking good for us in the DFW area. WHYYYYYYY

It's looking the exact same. Not good nor bad at the moment.

[rwfromkansas]

Got dark quickly in north Fort Worth. Chilly, too. Hope we can squeeze enough out tonight to at least get a late start.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

I’m a longtime lurker, don’t post much. The tweet from channel 8 bothers me a bit. Nws is pretty solid here in dfw, if I ranked weather stations WFAA is not in the top 2 on their forecasts unless they retweet something from Steve McCauley. In fact they were one of the stations predicting an inch of snow back in 2010’s snowmaggedon when there was already 6 inches of snow on the ground on the way to the 10-14 inches that eventually fell in dfw that day. So I would put much stock in any naysaying coming from that source.

[cheezyWXguy]

HRRR is trending slightly higher across dfw on totals with each run. 20z has close to 2 inch totals not too far from dallas

[Brandon8181]

You might be correct. I think at one point the NAM was too strong and the HRRR was too weak, so maybe a blend of the models will work best.

Also just realized NWS issued a winter storm warning as close as Ellis County. I'm about 5 miles from the dallas county/ellis county line...I can pretend I'm included in this warning, right?

Yes a nice jog N a few miles and you are good! The winter storm warnings in the FW office are for a combination of ice and snow that works for their criteria. Think 0.25-0.50 of ice is warning. Not enough snow to actually be warning worthy which is 4" or greater

If the 18z HRRR sets a trend for the rest of the 18z suite I could see a slim possibility of them upping Dallas county to WSW, though probably not since there isn't much motivation not to be conservative right now. Whats interesting is that the band that is forecast to produce the 1-2" amounts to our SE has actually shifted a bit north on that 18z run. I dont understand why the snowfall totals look so low in DFW on the HRRR though, as it shows a couple of hours of precip falling before accumulations begin to show up. Maybe its because it is forecasting it as sleet/ice during that time?

I had the same question about East Texas. It looks like SEVERAL HOURS of winter weather, but only saying 2-3 inches, or 4? Seems like this would be a 4-7 inch even for east Texas based on everything I'm looking at.

[Theepicman116]

Not looking good for us in the DFW area. WHYYYYYYY

What makes you say that?

[Rgv20]

By 7pm the Radar should start lighting up just north of Denton according to the HRRR. Its a wait and see for you guys in DFW!

[gpsnowman]

Ok, home from work. Now for some nowcasting. Certainly darker outside and slightly cooler, no major wind shift yet. Can't decide if this will be worth an all-nighter yet or not.

[Brandon8181]

Just outside of Tyler, TX we are currently setting about 62 degrees, Mostly cloudy, with light wind. About time to start NOW CASTING

[GeauxTigers]

O.K I'm bout 25 miles north of Denton near Denton and Grayson county line. We are hoping to see something here, although I understand most of it will be south of Denton, but who knows we might get lucky!

[wxman57]

From Jeff Lindner at Harris County Flood Control:

***Winter Storm Warning issued for SE TX for Tuesday for areas along and N of I-10***

***Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for areas south of I-10 to the coast***

Hazardous travel is likely to develop across the region on Tuesday during the day

***Unlike other winter weather events this region has experienced in recent years where impacts tend to lessen during the day…impacts with this event will worsen throughout the day on Tuesday into Tuesday evening.***

Discussion:
Arctic boundary is moving into TX this afternoon and will surge into the region overnight and off the coast early Tuesday. Temperatures will rapidly fall to freezing initially over our NW counties and then spread SE during the day reaching the coast by early afternoon. This will result in a rapid change of rain early to freezing rain/sleet/snow across the region during the day on Tuesday.

P-type:
Freezing rain is the likely precipitation type from the coast northward to I-10 where the freezing rain will begin to mix with sleet. North of HWY 105 freezing rain early Tuesday will change to sleet and all snow by Tuesday afternoon.

Accumulation:
Ice accumulation up to .10 of an inch is now likely across the entire region with sleet and snow accumulations N of HWY 105 up to 1-2 inches. Ice accumulations south of I-10 will likely average near .05 of an inch

Accumulations of this magnitude will likely result in hazardous travel developing across the region on Tuesday especially bridges and overpasses. Travel throughout the day on Tuesday will become increasingly difficult especially where bridges and overpasses are encountered.

Decision Support:

• NW of LaGrange to Huntsville: Onset freezing rain 300-400am Tuesday. Ice accumulation up to .10 of an inch, with sleet and snow accumulation of 1-2 inches. Hazardous travel all day

• N of HWY 105: Onset freezing rain 500-700am Tuesday. Ice accumulation up to 10 of an inch. Sleet accumulation likely up to .25 of an inch. Hazardous travel early Tuesday morning

• N of US 59 including metro Houston: Onset freezing rain 800-1000am. Ice Accumulation up to .10 of an inch. Hazardous travel starting mid-morning

• Coastal areas: Onset of freezing rain 1100am-100pm. Ice accumulation up to .05 of an inch. Hazardous travel starting around noon

• Precipitation should gradually end from N to S Tuesday evening, but very cold temperature will maintain icy conditions through mid-morning on Wednesday.


There remains some uncertainty on exactly where any meso scale bands may develop which could produce some locally higher amounts, but feel the current ice accumulation amounts are decent for now. Snow and sleet accumulations depending on how quickly transitions occur could be locally higher under any banding of heavier precipitation

Key Messages:

• Winter Storm Warning in effect along and N of I-10
• Winter Weather Advisory in effect along and S of I-10
• Ice accumulation up to .10 of an inch is likely across much of SE TX on Tuesday
• Sleet and snow accumulations may reach 1-2 inches from Brenham to Livingston
• Travel will become increasingly difficult on Tuesday across the region with bridges and overpasses the most likely to experience ice formation
• Hard freeze likely for portions of the region Wednesday morning with low temperatures into the low and mid 20’s

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Euro is stronger than all other models with the HP i believe. 1051 MB into Neb is the highest ive seen.

[WeatherNewbie]

I’m a longtime lurker, don’t post much. The tweet from channel 8 bothers me a bit. Nws is pretty solid here in dfw, if I ranked weather stations WFAA is not in the top 2 on their forecasts unless they retweet something from Steve McCauley. In fact they were one of the stations predicting an inch of snow back in 2010’s snowmaggedon when there was already 6 inches of snow on the ground on the way to the 10-14 inches that eventually fell in dfw that day. So I would put much stock in any naysaying coming from that source.

delkus is one of the worst "look at me" weathermen out there.

[Texas Snow]

NBC5's S-Band Radar seems to have some small rain echoes near Greenville and Sulphur Springs, which COULD mean the HRRR and x may be onto something. Radar watching vs. model projection time!

We won't know much until around 6-7pm when the more significant returns should begin showing up

My point was the other models weren't showing that, so it could be a precursor to begin correct.

[aggiecutter]

Just took a quick glance at the Weather Channel. Their snowfall forecast has a 3"-5" swath of snow from NE Texas through SW Arkansas and points NE. This seems to be the consensus of most of the models this afternoon.

[Ralph's Weather]

Thankfully many East Texas schools have already announced closings or delays. I assume the delays 2ill become closures by this evening. Some even already have announced late starts Wed.

[dhweather]

My daughter reports serious rain at Firewheel at PGBT. I'll have to work with her on terminology.

[DFWLady]

My daughter reports serious rain at Firewheel at PGBT. I'll have to work with her on terminology.

Ill be driving through there in about 30 minutes lol! Hope its not to serious!

[Brent]

I dunno what to expect in DFW but it sure turned wintry looking fast after a really not wintry day