Texas Winter 2017-2018

[stormlover2013]

Euro should be running, what is it showing I can’t get to it

[utweather]

Morning folks! Latest 16z HRRR shows ice then a band of snow! Austin TX looks to be getting a decent storm

Ice accumulations IMO will be 1/10"
Snow and sleet up to 1"

Good morning, sounds good. Hopefully only enough ice to not have to go to work so that we can enjoy the snow but not enough to cause any power issues. A little more or longer duration snowfall would be gravy.

[Ralph's Weather]

I do wish the column was colder to really support some 20:1 ratios tomorrow morning, low 20s at the surface but upper 20s through a lot of the saturated column. Still should have 15:1 tomorrow morning.

[Shoshana]

Definitely. I've been told that many local ISDs will be doing conference calls this afternoon to determine status for Tuesday. And I'm thinking by this evening most, if not all, local ISDs will be closed tomorrow. Government agencies and businesses likely to follow.

The only trend I have noticed besides a quicker front is that the latest NAM ups our precip total by .20". And that would mean more frozen stuff (more aggressive).

Thanks for the confirmation Portastorm. I looked and see the front is moving quickly. What is you ETA today vs. the after midnight that is forecast?

Based on what I have seen in the last hour (models, actual temps up north, etc.) I think the front will be through Travis County before midnight. I also think NWS will adjust their forecast accordingly in the afternoon package of products. We'll probably see a changeover from freezing rain/drizzle to sleet by 2-3 am. I'd expect light snow to mix in with that sleet by 9-10 am. I also think the precip may end sooner than thought. May be finished right after lunch. We shall see.

I’m sure hoping roads will be clearing up by late afternoon, I am supposed to be at work 5pm! Looks like there is a big chance that me and many coworkers will be calling in......

[dhweather]

17Z HRRR just finished running.

[wxman22]

Euro should be running, what is it showing I can’t get to it

It's more aggressive at least for Southeast Texas



http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf_usa.php

[JDawg512]

Thanks for the confirmation Portastorm. I looked and see the front is moving quickly. What is you ETA today vs. the after midnight that is forecast?

Based on what I have seen in the last hour (models, actual temps up north, etc.) I think the front will be through Travis County before midnight. I also think NWS will adjust their forecast accordingly in the afternoon package of products. We'll probably see a changeover from freezing rain/drizzle to sleet by 2-3 am. I'd expect light snow to mix in with that sleet by 9-10 am. I also think the precip may end sooner than thought. May be finished right after lunch. We shall see.

I’m sure hoping roads will be clearing up by late afternoon, I am supposed to be at work 5pm! Looks like there is a big chance that me and many coworkers will be calling in......

Whatever falls will stick around since temps will be dropping lower throughout the day.

[stormlover2013]

Every model run today has came in more aggressive.

[iorange55]

Every model run today has came in more aggressive.

I haven't had the chance to verify this with the actual output their spittin', but by the looks of the short term models, it does appear they have been stronger with the precip. It doesn't seem like the precip shield has become much more widespread, but what is there appears to be heavier.

This is why I think we here in DFW still have a chance of an inch or possibly two in some places. You have one heavy band come through while we're in the 20s? and it's night time? game over.

[Haris]

17Z HRRR just finished running.

That’s a lot of ice and snow for Austin

[Hurricane_Apu]

What's with the persistent dry pocket in south Louisiana that shows up on HRRR and other short range models?

[BigB0882]

Is that solid area of snow going to make it to SELA? A lot of models seems to totally kill it off before it gets down here. So upsetting.

[JSDS]

I’m not good with following model links. Can anyone show that Euro graphic above where it includes SE Louisiana?

[wxman22]

I’m not good with following model links. Can anyone show that Euro graphic above where it includes SE Louisiana?

[Ntxw]

FW picking up on the wind potential for DFW. Blizzard conditions is sustained or frequent gusts 35mph or greater with visibility 0.25 miles or less for 3 consecutive hours

Tonight
A chance of rain and sleet before 9pm, then a chance of rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet between 9pm and midnight, then a chance of snow after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 23. Windy, with a north wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

[Browndog]

Back from lurking mode here in Longview. Looking at the NWS Little Rock discussion this morning, they alluded to the very high liquid/snow ratios observed in the northern part of their state (25:1 ratios). They anticipate 20:1 ratios in the southern part of the state tonight and tomorrow morning which should translate well across northern Texas. This would essentially double the anticipated snowfall outputs from the various models. If that's the case, a swath of 3-6" amounts would be possible in the zone from about Corsicana to Texarkana. We'll see if this actually occurs, but it is worth considering. I'm pretty pumped to be in the "sweet spot" as we approach initiation of this event! The last great snow we had here was Feb. 25, 2015 when we received about 7". I'm not expecting that much this time around due to less available moisture, but you never know.

[Wntrwthrguy]

Is there any chance the Austin area sees more snow then what is currently forecast? Like 3-6 inches? If so, what will need to happen for that to occur?

[Cpv17]

Models are definitely favoring the NW quadrant of SETX. Showing a good 3-5” in that area.

[JayDT]

I just saw that there was 189 guests a few mins ago.. I don’t remember seeing that many guests before.. Maybe there has been but I didn’t pay attention... Still a lot though lol

Now It’s 200

[missygirl810]

How do you figure the liquid ratios everyone is talking about?