Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Rgv20]

Not everyday you see Winter Storm Watches/Warnings and Winter Weather Advisory from North Texas down to the Rio Grande Valley!

[Brandon8181]

That looks to be more snow in our area Tyler/Longivew/Lindale rather than just 2-3 inches @Ralph'sWeather

[Lagreeneyes03]

15Z HRRR is optimistic for North Texas.

http://i67.tinypic.com/10gzo87.gif

It seems to stick with most of the precip outside the immediate Dallas/Fort Worth area though, especially FTW side, but it's hard to see without a close up county map

[bubba hotep]

15Z HRRR is optimistic for North Texas.

http://i67.tinypic.com/10gzo87.gif

Latest HRRRx has about 11 hours of precipitation for DFW, change over time will play a big role.

[iorange55]

It seems to stick with most of the precip outside the immediate Dallas/Fort Worth area though, especially FTW side, but it's hard to see without a close up county map

The key is that the precip is around and it’s very close.

[Ntxw]

There is also a period before changeover of freezing rain and sleet. Not going to be pretty here in the metroplex when that happens and its 20s before changeover to snow. We keep looking at snow but forget it won't be all snow start to end. Once you hit 20s it sticks like glue.

People I think are in mindset of 32F when roads are just wet and things melt on contact, very wrong in this case.

[DFWLady]

Good late morning everyone! Sitting at my office in Dallas, and everyone is buzzing around hoping for a snow day tomorrow! Fingers crossed we get some good precipitation! !

[Ralph's Weather]

That looks to be more snow in our area Tyler/Longivew/Lindale rather than just 2-3 inches @Ralph'sWeather

Could be, especially if the changeover from sleet happens sooner than expected. With .25 to maybe over .5" QPF totals could get impressive if snow begins early.

[Haris]

Morning folks! Latest 16z HRRR shows ice then a band of snow! Austin TX looks to be getting a decent storm

Ice accumulations IMO will be 1/10"
Snow and sleet up to 1"

[CaptinCrunch]

Remember what I posted about the crazy Halloween analogy, and how cold La lina's have happened more than warm ones since 1950, and in the 104 years of records there hasn't been 3 consecutive warmer than average winters. This is a classic cold La Nina, and there has been at least 1 or 2 good winter events for NTX when these cold La Nina's happen, and party is just getting started.

FYI, the average monthly mean is currently - 3.5 and will continue to drop this week. We are also just .62" below the the monthly precipitation, this will improve.

[cheezyWXguy]

Remember also the ratios. Models are showing snowfall amounts based on a 1:10 ratio. At first this will likely apply, but as the cold air continues to usher in, especially in N and NE Texas, ratios will likely climb, allowing for slightly higher accumulations.

[Ntxw]

Remember what I posted about the crazy Halloween analogy, and how cold La lina's have happened more than warm ones since 1950, and in the 104 years of records there hasn't been 3 consecutive warmer than average winters. This is a classic cold La Nina, and there has been at least 1 or 2 good winter events for NTX when these cold La Nina's happen, and party is just getting started.

It is also an elusive east based Nina. We haven't seen one in a long while. 2013/2014 almost qualified as east based Nina but came up just short of 5 trimonthlies at nino 3.4. We want west based El Nino, or East based Nina. The placement of forcings is just better for their respective ENSO events.

[hamburgerman7070]

Remember what I posted about the crazy Halloween analogy, and how cold La lina's have happened more than warm ones since 1950, and in the 104 years of records there hasn't been 3 consecutive warmer than average winters. This is a classic cold La Nina, and there has been at least 1 or 2 good winter events for NTX when these cold La Nina's happen, and party is just getting started.

FYI, the average monthly mean is currently - 3.5 and will continue to drop this week. We are also just .62" below the the monthly precipitation, this will improve.

Hi captain. There may be signs of trough retrogression. Imo, the trough has been too far East, but perhaps that will change. I'm more than ready for a blockbuster winter storm. It's been missing it here in Jonesboro Arkansas unfortunately.

[hamburgerman7070]

I think main concern may ultimately be fzr and sleet events over snow, depends on depth of cold air

[iorange55]

Latest run of the HRRRX continues to look very good for DFW area...

[DFWLady]

Latest run of the HRRRX continues to look very good for DFW area...

I am praying this verifies! The kids and I would love a snow day!

[Theepicman116]

So will we see the freezing rain, sleet and snow before it dips below freezing or after?

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

At noon it is 57 and sunny in Richardson. South winds and some clouds moving in from the south. My wife just said “it’s a beautiful day, you really think it’s gonna snow tonight?”

[Ntxw]

Nothing yet on radar but by this afternoon, every pixel of qpf will be over-analyzed by us! Leave no puff of cloud unturned...

[dhweather]

16Z HRRR still offers hope.