Texas Winter 2017-2018

[dhweather]

I know this sounds like a wish-cast, and honestly it is to some degree, but I believe the HRRR/HRRRx will pull out a win today. HRRR initializes the high pressure dome in canada at 1047mb, while the NAM/GFS initialize it at 1055-1056mb. Looking at real-time surface maps, the High is currently being analyzed at 1048mb.

If the HRRR is correct, and the High stays in the 1048-1052mb range most of today (as opposed to strengthening into the 1056-1059mb range), it seems likely that a bit more moisture would hang around. Even despite having an over-strengthened high, the 6z NAM has back-built the precip shield to the NW noticeably and light accumulations are once again shown in the DFW area.

Not a wish cast - Little things like this can make a significant difference in what happens in North Texas. The high doesn't come barreling in quite as quickly, which doesn't dry the column up as quickly, which could lead to better chances of us seeing some precip. My son is going crazy to see snow, so it would be welcomed for him. After all, if its going to be this cold, it may as well snow!

[dhweather]

RGEM holds firm. Looks nice for metroplex, even nicer totals in east/ne TX

KAUS gets 1-2" from it

For our friend Portastorm, I hope this happens! He has endured countless freezing drizzle episodes at best. Two snow events in two months would be fabulous for him.

[Rgv20]

RGEM holds firm. Looks nice for metroplex, even nicer totals in east/ne TX

KAUS gets 1-2" from it

Im rooting for you all in Dallas for some of that white stuff!

Have you gotten a chance to take a look at wintry precipitation chances for South/Deep South Texas?

[dhweather]

Very impressive that we MAY see frozen precip of some sort from near the Red River to near Brownsville. That does not happen very often.

[losf1981]

Very impressive that we MAY see frozen precip of some sort from near the Red River to near Brownsville. That does not happen very often.

like Wichita Falls red river??? Sorry, I'm begging for something here...

[bubba hotep]

Nice 0.05" bump in QPF across DFW from the latest SREF run. That gets DFW just over 0.10" and gets the eastern burbs over 0.15", that could go even higher on the next run given there is a solid cluster that keeps trending higher each run.

[iorange55]

Nice 0.05" bump in QPF across DFW from the latest SREF run. That gets DFW just over 0.10" and gets the eastern burbs over 0.15", that could go even higher on the next run given there is a solid cluster that keeps trending higher each run.

I know i'm working with a bias, but I have to believe this over the NAM runs. As others have mentioned, it's too strong with the high from the start, which means it's working with a flawed premise. It's going to have some plot holes.

[Ntxw]

RGEM holds firm. Looks nice for metroplex, even nicer totals in east/ne TX

KAUS gets 1-2" from it

Im rooting for you all in Dallas for some of that white stuff!

Have you gotten a chance to take a look at wintry precipitation chances for South/Deep South Texas?

I haven't looked too deeply down that way but I wouldn't be surprised if some sleet fell as far S as Laredo

[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville just issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the threat of Freezing Rain and a Freeze Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
933 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

...Low wind chill index values Tuesday afternoon...

.An arctic blast will push through on Tuesday, producing breezy
north winds and much colder temperatures in the afternoon,
resulting in low wind chill index readings through Wednesday.
As colder air arrives and temperatures fall below freezing
any on going rain will transition into a freezing rain with some
sleet mixing in Tuesday afternoon, Tuesday night and Wednesday
morning. Ice accumulations will generally be less than one tenth
of an inch. This will make travel dangerous across South Texas.

TXZ252>255-160000-
/O.NEW.KBRO.WW.Y.0001.180117T0300Z-180117T1500Z/
/O.EXT.KBRO.WC.Y.0002.180116T2100Z-180118T0000Z/
Starr-Hidalgo-Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-
Including the cities of Rio Grande City, Roma, McAllen, Edinburg,
Pharr, Mission, Weslaco, Raymondville, Brownsville, and Harlingen
933 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM
CST WEDNESDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM TUESDAY TO 9 AM
CST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Very cold wind chills expected.
The ice will result in very slippery conditions on sidewalks,
roads and bridges. Total ice accumulations of a light glaze are
expected. Expect wind chills to range from 20 to 28 degrees
above zero.

* WHERE...Starr, Hidalgo, Inland Willacy and Inland Cameron
County.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, 9 PM Tuesday to 9 AM
Wednesday. For the Wind Chill Advisory, 3 PM Tuesday to 6 PM
Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold wind chills will cause frostbite
in as little as 30 minutes to exposed skin. Any ice
accumulations will make for very difficult driving conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain
will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads.
Slow down and use caution while driving. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and the wind will
combine to create low wind chills. Frost bite and hypothermia can
occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and
gloves.

&&

$$

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
916 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

...Rapidly falling temperatures Tuesday to fall below freezing for
much of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley...

.A very strong arctic cold front will push through on Tuesday.
Temperatures to fall rapidly behind the front with temperatures
approaching and dipping below freezing across the northern
Ranchlands before sunset Tuesday and after sunset across much of
the Rio Grande Valley Tuesday night. Temperatures to remain at or
below freezing through at least Noon Wednesday.

TXZ252>255-160000-
/O.NEW.KBRO.FZ.W.0004.180117T0300Z-180117T1500Z/
Starr-Hidalgo-Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-
Including the cities of Rio Grande City, Roma, McAllen, Edinburg,
Pharr, Mission, Weslaco, Raymondville, Brownsville, and Harlingen
916 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM TUESDAY TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

The National Weather Service in Brownsville has issued a Freeze
Warning, which is in effect from 9 PM Tuesday to 9 AM CST
Wednesday.

* TEMPERATURE...29-32 degrees, 6-12 hours of temperatures at or
below freezing.

* IMPACTS...Subfreezing temperatures will threaten tender
vegetation across the region. Protect outside pets and livestock
by providing adequate shelter and a safe source of heat. Exposed
pipes could freeze.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other
sensitive vegetation.

&&

$$

[EnnisTx]

If moisture keeps increasing, I believe that Winter Storm Warning will move North a few counties.

[Ntxw]

Initial front (wind shift and halt of warming) is somewhere in southern Oklahoma

[Ralph's Weather]

RGEM temps for tomorrow morning with snow falling is 18 here, only rising to 22 tomorrow then down to 5 on Wed. Have to believe that is a bit overdone but some single digits are likely with this. HRRR also gets down to 21 at the end of its run at 2AM this morning so the RGEM may not be too far off on temps.

[Ntxw]

By the way congratulations to the thread for 300 pages!!! This marks an important milestone in the limited years we have carried. 300+ pages is the earmark for a great winter if you look back

[stormlover2013]

Rgem is more aggressive also

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS bumps the 0.10" line a tad NW and the eastern portions of DFW are starting to look a little better.

[cheezyWXguy]

Rgem is more aggressive also

12z GFS is also more aggressive, showing accumulation over all of the immediate metroplex, and about an inch for most of dallas county and points east

[downsouthman1]

RGEM holds firm. Looks nice for metroplex, even nicer totals in east/ne TX

KAUS gets 1-2" from it

For our friend Portastorm, I hope this happens! He has endured countless freezing drizzle episodes at best. Two snow events in two months would be fabulous for him.

It would actually be the 3rd snow for Austin, surprisingly. I actually think it's my fault.

3 days before the 1st snow, we had visitors at work from Oregon. It was warm here and they said they like the climate here. I told them it doesn't snow in Austin. At most, we get some freezing drizzle. The rest is history.

[longhornweather]

I’m not great at reading the models but from what I can tell there aren’t any major changes for Austin area with the GFS.

[stormlover2013]

Cmc colder with more precip

[Portastorm]

RGEM holds firm. Looks nice for metroplex, even nicer totals in east/ne TX

KAUS gets 1-2" from it

For our friend Portastorm, I hope this happens! He has endured countless freezing drizzle episodes at best. Two snow events in two months would be fabulous for him.

Thank you! This winter is already shaping up to be one of the more memorable ones which I've experienced in AUS in decades. Seriously. Should tomorrow's event verify, it would cinch it for making my list of top 3-4 winters. And it's only mid January! LOL.

I feel for you Metroplexers as you have been desperate for snow and seeing it happen in places where it usually doesn't happen, just makes it worse. Trust me, y'all know if anyone can relate to your pain, it's me (and my fellow Austin-area peeps). But I do think before March gets here, you're going to get at least one good snow. February also seems to have good events for North Texas. And even early March.