Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Cpv17]

Seems like around the Houston area, its not showing quite as much precip as other areas. Not quite sure how to feel about this. I get the front will rush down central Tx quicker, which will provide more lift but our area should have more moisture available due to the proximity of the GOM. Lets hope this plays out.

The WRF is showing a bigger high than the GFS in Neb, which could be why the precip is so much higher.
Based on surface analysis, GFS seems to be handling the strength of the high fairly well. Last couple runs have a 1057 MB high crossing the border. Runs before that were slightly weaker, great trend.

Center of the trough bringing down the air continued to nudge westward, good sign for us. Better than being further east for sure.

Were abut halfway through this winter season and so far its been entertaining. Continuing to learn alot and have fun doing it with you guys. Lets hope we are satisfied from this event on Tuesday.

I believe it’s trending better for us, my friend! It’s sure entertaining. I absolutely love learning about all of this!

[Cpv17]

Ntxw can answer this way better than me, but I believe suppression from the strength of the massive high pressure is what’s killing DFW’s chances for snow/ice. It’s a rare case where these high pressures are so strong it favors the southern half of the state for precip more than the northern half because it’s basically too cold up there for precip. Basically squashes everything down south. Around here in Texas you have better odds at seeing winter weather in the 28-32 degree range than you do anything colder than that.

[WeatherDuck]

I see that the NWS has recently issued a Winter Storm Warning for the counties just north and east of my location.

Is it just a matter of time for a warning to be issued for the Austin area?

[Cpv17]

06z GFS slightly more bullish on precip chances across Southeast TX compared to the 0z run and also slightly colder as well.

[Cpv17]

I see that the NWS has recently issued a Winter Storm Warning for the counties just north and east of my location.

Is it just a matter of time for a warning to be issued for the Austin area?

Srain (who I hold in very high regard) just said on another website that if it were up to him he would issue Winter Storm Watches basically from central TX all the way down towards the western part of SETX.
Edit: Winter Weather Advisory has now been issued for all of SETX.

[Ntxw]

Mos output is getting cold. GFS Mos has DFW down to 11F. Hard freeze watch for northwestern counties due to possible single digits

[Cpv17]

06z GFS shows a massive snowstorm for West TX and the panhandle in fantasy land.

[cheezyWXguy]

I know this sounds like a wish-cast, and honestly it is to some degree, but I believe the HRRR/HRRRx will pull out a win today. HRRR initializes the high pressure dome in canada at 1047mb, while the NAM/GFS initialize it at 1055-1056mb. Looking at real-time surface maps, the High is currently being analyzed at 1048mb.

If the HRRR is correct, and the High stays in the 1048-1052mb range most of today (as opposed to strengthening into the 1056-1059mb range), it seems likely that a bit more moisture would hang around. Even despite having an over-strengthened high, the 6z NAM has back-built the precip shield to the NW noticeably and light accumulations are once again shown in the DFW area.

[Ntxw]

WPC surface analysis at 10z (4am) is at 1052mb in Saskatchewan

[Cpv17]

Winter Storm Warning has now been issued for all of the Austin and San Antonio areas.

[srainhoutx]

Winter Storm Warning issued for all of the EWX Forecast Area. Also HGX mentioning possible upgrade to Winter Storm Watch/Warning later today into tonight.

[gpsnowman]

Winter Storm Warning issued for all of the EWX Forecast Area. Also HGX mentioning possible upgrade to Winter Storm Watch/Warning later today into tonight.

I would like to see the counties warned creep northward throughout the day.

[Ralph's Weather]

I am hoping for the HRRR to be right. It gives the I20 corridor by fast the best snow is any model I have seen so far this morning. Hoping for a weaker high which is rare down here.

[Ntxw]

RGEM is also pretty favorable.

[Ntxw]

This cold is for real. If we get any kind of snow on the ground, and skies clear Tues night Weds morning, we might have an outside shot at single digits for DFW

[orangeblood]

Canadian model temp output from several days ago

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: Canadian model temp output from several days ago

I remember on Friday or some point last week I was saying GFS with a low for the outbreak was 27F for one of its runs was laughable. What a joke..

It was going mid 20s late last week. This model for me has lost credibility highly as far as outbreak temps this winter

[Ntxw]

Starting to see signal for an outbreak of cold Jan 25-31st. Both EPS and GEFS has that dagger that comes down the Plains. Western Canada remains very cold throughout the rest of this month. 500mb heights during that period looks low, which could mean stormy.

[Ralph's Weather]

Starting to see signal for an outbreak of cold Jan 25-31st. Both EPS and GEFS has that dagger that comes down the Plains. Western Canada remains very cold throughout the rest of this month. 500mb heights during that period looks low, which could mean stormy.

That is a much better pattern for snow for us.

[Ntxw]

Starting to see signal for an outbreak of cold Jan 25-31st. Both EPS and GEFS has that dagger that comes down the Plains. Western Canada remains very cold throughout the rest of this month. 500mb heights during that period looks low, which could mean stormy.

That is a much better pattern for snow for us.

-PNA look with some Greenland blocking.

Some wicked cold in Siberia this week. Pattern is conducive to help it move by next weekend into the following week