Texas Winter 2017-2018

[South Texas Storms]

The mood in here sure has gone sour for our north TX members today. Let me remind yall that in the early December snow event in south central TX, not one model showed snow in Austin and San Antonio. These areas saw 1-2" of snow with that system. Don't give up hope yet.

Expectations have increased from DFW folks. You can hear it in the cynical tones . They will be happy to see snow fall from the sky in the end.

By chance do you know why the HRRRx date is sporadic and incomplete? Any other sources to view than tidbits?

Here's the other links I know to view it: https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRR/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_jet&domain=t5&run_time=14+Jan+2018+-+20Z

WeatherBell: http://models.weatherbell.com/hrrr/hrrrx.php (paid site)

Since it is experimental, it doesn't always run every hour and sometimes the data is missing for some hours.

The 0z/12z runs normally go out to 48 hours, and the 6z/18z runs normally go out to 36 hours. All other runs go out to 18 hours.

[stormlover2013]

South Texas storms: will tonight be when we get a good grasp on this.

[DFWLady]

While it is hard to stay hopeful in DFW when every time we think we are gonna have some type of winter weather, it gets taken away, I am still hopeful!!! We still have tomorrow to go and mother nature is a fickle lady! She changes her mind as quickly if not quicker than us real ladies! Don't give up yet DFW people!!!

Also please remember, we still have all of February! Our notoriously snowiest month in DFW!

Come on snow! I'm still happy and hopeful!!!!

[South Texas Storms]

South Texas storms: will tonight be when we get a good grasp on this.

I think we should have a pretty good idea by the 12z runs tomorrow (by midday).

[stormlover2013]

Good deal!! What is ur gut telling u? Will it be dry or wetter?

[South Texas Storms]

Good deal!! What is ur gut telling u? Will it be dry or wetter?

I think some areas will see a pretty significant winter event (hence NWS offices putting out Winter Storm Watches). Central TX looks like they could see some ice accumulations reach up to 0.20" and snow up to 1-2". However any areas that see heavier bands could see more.

[stormlover2013]

Anything around Beaumont area ?

[orangeblood]

For DFW folks, there was always a threat towards this becoming a minor event if the Arctic HP was stronger than what was being modeled...that appears to be coming to fruition - approaching high 1050's will force the action further south under this setup. Good news for those in the southern half of the state though.

[Brent]

The mood in here sure has gone sour for our north TX members today. Let me remind yall that in the early December snow event in south central TX, not one model showed snow in Austin and San Antonio. These areas saw 1-2" of snow with that system. Don't give up hope yet.

Expectations have increased from DFW folks. You can hear it in the cynical tones . They will be happy to see snow fall from the sky in the end.

I saw snow fall in Chicago... its time for a snowstorm. We've been teased enough.

[longhornweather]

Good deal!! What is ur gut telling u? Will it be dry or wetter?

I think some areas will see a pretty significant winter event (hence NWS offices putting out Winter Storm Watches). Central TX looks like they could see some ice accumulations reach up to 0.20" and snow up to 1-2". However any areas that see heavier bands could see more.

If this happens in the Austin area, it could really shut things down.

[South Texas Storms]

Anything around Beaumont area ?

Probably only light accumulations, if any. Better chances north and west of there.

[Ntxw]

The mood in here sure has gone sour for our north TX members today. Let me remind yall that in the early December snow event in south central TX, not one model showed snow in Austin and San Antonio. These areas saw 1-2" of snow with that system. Don't give up hope yet.

Expectations have increased from DFW folks. You can hear it in the cynical tones . They will be happy to see snow fall from the sky in the end.

I saw snow fall in Chicago... its time for a snowstorm. We've been teased enough.

This event was never going to be a true snowstorm. We've all made clear it was isentropic lift, frontal type event which the ceilings are not high, exists due to cold ratios.

[Cerlin]

Looking like it's gonna be yet another bust for DFW. Would kill to get half an inch...

[starsfan65]

Looking like it's gonna be yet another bust for DFW. Would kill to get half an inch...

It ain't going to be a bust.

[missygirl810]

Looking like it's gonna be yet another bust for DFW. Would kill to get half an inch...

It ain't going to be a bust.

Why do you think it will not be?

[Ntxw]

It hasn't happened yet to be a bust.

[starsfan65]

:uarrow: It hasn't happened yet to be a bust.

That is true!!

[Yukon Cornelius]

The NWS took away our 20% chance of snow. I was really banking on that delivering! Haha. It’s no big deal, we will get some snow some other time. At least it’s not above average temps.

[bubba hotep]

:uarrow: It hasn't happened yet to be a bust.

18z GEFS looks like it actually bumped up totals for DFW. Maybe up to 0.2", this will be a hair splitter! The difference between sub 0.1" to 0.2" will be pretty big given this setup. Dusting vs. 3"!

[Haris]

:uarrow: It hasn't happened yet to be a bust.

18z GEFS looks like it actually bumped up totals for DFW. Maybe up to 0.2", this will be a hair splitter! The difference between sub 0.1" to 0.2" will be pretty big given this setup. Dusting vs. 3"!

Ok. Nothing has happened anywhere yet. Forecast hasn't busted yet.
Some questions to clear out?
Will DFW see snow? Yes. Accumulations look VERY LOW but not set and stone
Worst impacts will be in Central Texas, aka Austin San Antonio etc...
Icing will be up to 1/4" in atx with an inch of snow possible