Texas Winter 2017-2018

[SnowintheFalls]

Hoping 0z trends further north and adds another tenth of an inch. We need to give our friends along the Red River some snow.

Seeing something more than light flurries in the Wichita Falls area sure would be nice. Looks like we are more than likely going to miss out this round but I will be in Midland this week so I can hang on to some hope for seeing some wintry mischief there!

[Rgv20]

Looks like if the models hold to the current forecast the NWS Brownsville will issued a Winter Storm Watch by tomorrow afternoon...

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
324 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018


...Freezing rain possible Tuesday night and Wednesday...
...Very cold temperatures and low wind chills Tuesday night
through Thursday morning...

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday night):
500mb low/trough across the Midwest United States tonight will
deepen across the north- central U.S. Monday into Mon night
allowing a blast of cold Canadian air to move into the northern
plains tonight and into the southern plains Monday before moving
into central Texas Mon night behind a strong cold front. An
onshore flow tonight through Mon night will allow temperatures to
warm to near normal tonight and Monday and slightly above normal
Mon night before the polar airmass arrives Tues morning. In
addition...moisture will increase across the CWA Monday into Mon
night to mention isolated to scattered showers Mon night as the
front approaches from the north.


.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday):Very challenging forecast for
the first half of long term with an Arctic surge to overspread all
of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grand Valley from Tuesday through
Thursday. Latest model package coming in colder as a 1052mb High
pressure area moves out of Canada Monday and spreads into the
Central/Southern Plains and North Texas Tuesday. The cold air will
continue to surge into our CWA through at least Thursday before
the surface ridge moves east and the airmass modifies rather
rapidly for next weekend.

Without much detail expecting the cold front to move through the
region early Tuesday morning but could reach the Northern
Ranchlands after midnight Monday night. In any case, temperatures
will be falling and rain/drizzle chances increasing through the
day and into Wednesday morning. The main issue and impact with
this system will the rapid drop in temperatures, wind chills and
the chance of freezing rain/drizzle. Models temperature guidance
and forecast soundings show surface temperatures dipping below
freezing over the north and west and into portions of Northern
Hidalgo county. Atmosphere becomes saturated from the surface to
around 700mb as the overrunning machine, isentropic lift, turns
on. A reasonable worse case scenario is if models continue to
trend colder, and some ensemble members are colder, freezing
temperatures along with some patches of freezing rain are possible
along the Rio Grande River Wed from McAllen to Brownsville
Wednesday morning. Confidence is increasing that some winter
weather impacts will be felt across portions of DSTX but with
onset still more than 48 hours away winter storm watches or
warning will not issued at this time. Winds chills to drop below
the 30 degrees Tuesday evening and may not rise above 30 until
later Thursday morning.

[Ralph's Weather]

Well well! Hello everyone.

Most of you probably don't remember me. I use to live in the Sherman / Denison area which for several years there we were getting several large batches of snow. Work and my wife relocated me to Tyler, TX. We never get snow here! It is pathetic. Well, it looks like this one might be the one for us! Really looking forward to a possible snow day. I do up Texas Snowman up in Sherman/Denison does get some snow though...

I'm getting just a little bit excited!

I'm in Hideaway and this looks to be our best one in 5 years if it over produces it will be the best in 8 years.

[Ralph's Weather]

Interesting that the Experimental HRRR (scheduled to replace the current HRRR this spring) is showing much more moisture across north TX than the other high-res models.

Latest run here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrrx&region=scus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018011418&fh=1

One thing I find interesting in this run, and to some extent in the rgem, and even the nam (though further south), is that there seems to be more convective banding, as opposed to a broad precip shield. Like in many of our winter weather setups, this potential should be watched as it would likely result in some areas picking up noticeably more accumulation while some areas might pick up next to nothing. The result might be a broad-brushed .5” average across the metro, but the story could be very different depending specific location

I have noticed that also. This is likely the reason Shreveport NWS mentions 4 inch possibilities. A good band could produce impressive totals vs surrounding areas. These Hi Res models will be interesting to watch tomorrow to see what form the precip sheild will take.

[Brandon8181]

Well well! Hello everyone.

Most of you probably don't remember me. I use to live in the Sherman / Denison area which for several years there we were getting several large batches of snow. Work and my wife relocated me to Tyler, TX. We never get snow here! It is pathetic. Well, it looks like this one might be the one for us! Really looking forward to a possible snow day. I do up Texas Snowman up in Sherman/Denison does get some snow though...

I'm getting just a little bit excited!

I'm in Hideaway and this looks to be our best one in 5 years if it over produces it will be the best in 8 years.

That is what I was thinking. We had a heck of a storm up in North Texas back in 11-12. Then since I've been here we have had NOTHING but disappointment except for the Christmas Eve storm 5 years ago. So I'm really HOPING to squeeze 3-6 inches out of this storm. That would be awesome, and the kids would love it.

[Brent]

it will change

How will it change? Expand further north? Less in Metroplex as it shifts further south? We need details.

We still got the 18z GFS run soon.

GFS is basically a dusting in Dallas

[chrisdanger76]

Just up from a nap, reading this WWA and having it exclude us in Denton is just, frankly, a bad idea. I'm still convinced we're going to get some not so favorable weather over the next day.

[starsfan65]

How will it change? Expand further north? Less in Metroplex as it shifts further south? We need details.

We still got the 18z GFS run soon.

GFS is basically a dusting in Dallas

We are going to get more than a dusting.

[Haris]

We still got the 18z GFS run soon.

GFS is basically a dusting in Dallas

We are going to get more than a dusting.

GFS shows 2" snow for Austin now

[Quixotic]

Well well! Hello everyone.

Most of you probably don't remember me. I use to live in the Sherman / Denison area which for several years there we were getting several large batches of snow. Work and my wife relocated me to Tyler, TX. We never get snow here! It is pathetic. Well, it looks like this one might be the one for us! Really looking forward to a possible snow day. I do up Texas Snowman up in Sherman/Denison does get some snow though...

I'm getting just a little bit excited!

I'm in Hideaway and this looks to be our best one in 5 years if it over produces it will be the best in 8 years.

That is what I was thinking. We had a heck of a storm up in North Texas back in 11-12. Then since I've been here we have had NOTHING but disappointment except for the Christmas Eve storm 5 years ago. So I'm really HOPING to squeeze 3-6 inches out of this storm. That would be awesome, and the kids would love it.

Where in North Texas? Except for 1/2” of paste in late February I think most people in 11-12 got shut out.

[bubba hotep]

How will it change? Expand further north? Less in Metroplex as it shifts further south? We need details.

We still got the 18z GFS run soon.

GFS is basically a dusting in Dallas

Basically just waiting for the 00z Euro to seal the shutout with this system.

[Brandon8181]

I'm in Hideaway and this looks to be our best one in 5 years if it over produces it will be the best in 8 years.

That is what I was thinking. We had a heck of a storm up in North Texas back in 11-12. Then since I've been here we have had NOTHING but disappointment except for the Christmas Eve storm 5 years ago. So I'm really HOPING to squeeze 3-6 inches out of this storm. That would be awesome, and the kids would love it.

Where in North Texas? Except for 1/2” of paste in late February I think most people in 11-12 got shut out.

Double checked the records. It was the Great snowstorm of 2010. When many across all of north Texas got 4-11 inches. The 2010 was the largest snow storm that I remember in my life. Then in 2011 Feb 3-4 most got 4-7 inches.

[starsfan65]

We still got the 18z GFS run soon.

GFS is basically a dusting in Dallas

Basically just waiting for the 00z Euro to seal the shutout with this system.

Are ya'll giving up hope?

[South Texas Storms]

The mood in here sure has gone sour for our north TX members today. Let me remind yall that in the early December snow event in south central TX, not one model showed snow in Austin and San Antonio. These areas saw 1-2" of snow with that system. Don't give up hope yet.

[gpsnowman]

The mood in here sure has gone sour for our north TX members today. Let me remind yall that in the early December snow event in south central TX, not one model showed snow in Austin and San Antonio. These areas saw 1-2" of snow with that system. Don't give up hope yet.

Not yet. Still have 24hrs of models to go before hope is lost. I would take an inch of blowing snow at this point. Although the models could get worse instead of better.

[EnnisTx]

Well I'll be.... Spend the last three hours outside in the yard raking those pesky leaves and I come back to half the state under some kind of watch.

It has been a beautiful day though.

[WeatherDuck]

GFS is basically a dusting in Dallas

We are going to get more than a dusting.

GFS shows 2" snow for Austin now

If we get a layer of ice with a couple inches of snow on top, don't you think that would shut things down around here not only Tuesday, but into Wednesday?

[weatherdude1108]

This rain miser is switching over to winter mode. I need to cover several plants and get my shopping done. Will check back tonight for latest info. In the meantime, hope everyone is having a great afternoon.

Yeah, we have food and supplies now to get through our Icemaggedon.

[JayDT]

The mood in here sure has gone sour for our north TX members today. Let me remind yall that in the early December snow event in south central TX, not one model showed snow in Austin and San Antonio. These areas saw 1-2" of snow with that system. Don't give up hope yet.

For those of us trying to stay hopeful it’s been kind of hard to stay that way with some people’s posts lol..

[Ntxw]

The mood in here sure has gone sour for our north TX members today. Let me remind yall that in the early December snow event in south central TX, not one model showed snow in Austin and San Antonio. These areas saw 1-2" of snow with that system. Don't give up hope yet.

Expectations have increased from DFW folks. You can hear it in the cynical tones . They will be happy to see snow fall from the sky in the end.

By chance do you know why the HRRRx data is sporadic and incomplete? Any other sources to view than tidbits?