Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Theepicman116]

I'm somewhat tired of mother nature playing with my emotions here. I'm just going to stay hopeful and only go off of what NWS fort Worth says as well as the local meteorologist on the news

[Rgv20]

Looking like we might get some Freezing Rain in the RGV come Tuesday Night/Wednesday Morning.....Lets see if the NWS Brownsville introduces a chance for frozen precip on their afternoon update.

[bubba hotep]

EPS says there is no 2nd round of winter wx...

[bubba hotep]

Winter Storm Watch hoisted for the ArkLaTex. They typically coordinate these with the surrounding offices, so FWD is probably agreeing with the latest data indicating lower impacts for DFW.

[Texas Snow]

Winter Storm Watch hoisted for the ArkLaTex. They typically coordinate these with the surrounding offices, so FWD is probably agreeing with the latest data indicating lower impacts for DFW.

DFW put this out at noon:

"Looking at the winter precipitation forecast for the Metroplex TAF
sites Monday night and Tuesday suggests no significant changes. We
still anticipate just light precipitation amounts, but due to very
cold temperatures, accumulations on all surfaces will be possible
in addition to freezing of any wet surfaces from late afternoon or
early evening liquid rainfall. The transition to light winter
precipitation in the form of sleet or snow looks most likely to
occur around 1z or 7pm which should continue through early
morning Tuesday. Accumulations of sleet and snow should be less
than a half inch at all Metroplex TAF sites with slightly higher
amounts at Waco where transition will not occur until after
midnight.

[starsfan65]

Winter Storm Watch hoisted for the ArkLaTex. They typically coordinate these with the surrounding offices, so FWD is probably agreeing with the latest data indicating lower impacts for DFW.

DFW put this out at noon:

"Looking at the winter precipitation forecast for the Metroplex TAF
sites Monday night and Tuesday suggests no significant changes. We
still anticipate just light precipitation amounts, but due to very
cold temperatures, accumulations on all surfaces will be possible
in addition to freezing of any wet surfaces from late afternoon or
early evening liquid rainfall. The transition to light winter
precipitation in the form of sleet or snow looks most likely to
occur around 1z or 7pm which should continue through early
morning Tuesday. Accumulations of sleet and snow should be less
than a half inch at all Metroplex TAF sites with slightly higher
amounts at Waco where transition will not occur until after
midnight.

it could still change.

[EnnisTx]

Winter Storm Watch up for portions of East Texas.

[Rgv20]

18zNAM has a healthy shield of moisture across Deep South Texas Tuesday Night with temperatures at or below freezing....

[iorange55]

I think the most frustrating part is that it’s not like the ingredients aren’t there, it’s just we’re missing them by 100 miles or so. We’re not used to seeing Austin and San Antonio get more snow than we are. It’s not supposed to work like that!

I’m still holding out hope, though. All we need is just a little more precip than what the models are currently showing. I’ll take an inch and be happy with it!

Edit: it does look like the 18z NAM might be trying to hang back some snow showers in the DFW area. Looks spotty, we’ll see what happens with the runs tonight.

[EnnisTx]

I tend to get my hopes up when it comes to winter weather, but I've learned over the years not to completely buy into what is forecast or what the models show.

For one their not always correct and all it takes is just a small change in direction or moisture and you're in or out of business.

This is what makes this board such a great asset.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
239 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Houston-Trinity-Madison-Walker-San Jacinto-Polk-Burleson-Brazos-
Washington-Grimes-Montgomery-Liberty-Colorado-Austin-Waller-
Harris-Chambers-Wharton-Fort Bend-Jackson-Matagorda-Brazoria-
Galveston-
Including the cities of Crockett, Trinity, Groveton,
Madisonville, Huntsville, Shepherd, Coldspring, Livingston,
Corrigan, Onalaska, Caldwell, Lake Somerville, College Station,
Bryan, Brenham, Navasota, The Woodlands, Conroe, Willis, Liberty,
Cleveland, Dayton, Columbus, Eagle Lake, Weimar, Sealy,
Bellville, Hempstead, Prairie View, Brookshire, Houston,
Pasadena, Katy, Tomball, Humble, Winnie, Mont Belvieu, Anahuac,
El Campo, Wharton, Pierce, Sugar Land, Missouri City, Richmond,
Rosenberg, Edna, Bay City, Palacios, Pearland, Lake Jackson,
Alvin, Angleton, Freeport, League City, Texas City, Friendswood,
and Galveston
239 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

...COLD TEMPERATURES AND WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE TUESDAY...

A strong cold front will push through the area early Tuesday
morning with periods of rain beginning overnight Monday night.
Temperatures will fall throughout the day on Tuesday with the rain
gradually changing over to a wintry mix starting early Tuesday
morning across the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region. The
change over to a wintry mix will gradually work its way southward
throughout the day on Tuesday, even approaching the coast by
Tuesday night. Light ice accumulations of under 0.1 inch will be
possible area-wide, but are more likely across the northern and
western portions of the area. Light snow accumulations are also
possible across the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region. A Winter
Weather Watch could be issued in the next day or so.

Cold temperatures are expected Tuesday night in the wake of the
front, with lows reaching the low/mid 20s inland and near freezing
at the coast. Any remaining water could freeze and create
additional ice issues. A Hard Freeze Warning may be required for
portions of the area. Please keep up with the latest forecasts.

[Ntxw]

I think the most frustrating part is that it’s not like the ingredients aren’t there, it’s just we’re missing them by 100 miles or so. We’re not used to seeing Austin and San Antonio get more snow than we are. It’s not supposed to work like that!

I’m still holding out hope, though. All we need is just a little more precip than what the models are currently showing. I’ll take an inch and be happy with it!

Edit: it does look like the 18z NAM might be trying to hang back some snow showers in the DFW area. Looks spotty, we’ll see what happens with the runs tonight show.

You got to be in a sweet spot. Too warm a winter, no good. Too cold a winter, no good . Amarillo and OKC are sitting in the same boat and they don't even have hope

[South Texas Storms]

Interesting that the Experimental HRRR (scheduled to replace the current HRRR this spring) is showing much more moisture across north TX than the other high-res models.

Latest run here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrrx&region=scus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018011418&fh=1

[South Texas Storms]

Winter Storm Watch issued by EWX for much of south central TX. First one issued in quite a long time.

[iorange55]

Interesting that the Experimental HRRR (scheduled to replace the current HRRR this spring) is showing much more moisture across north TX than the other high-res models.

Latest run here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrrx&region=scus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018011418&fh=1

This is the model I will trust then.

[downsouthman1]

Winter Storm Watch issued by EWX for much of south central TX. First one issued in quite a long time.

I said last night that weather alerts would go up across a huge chunk of Texas today.

[gpsnowman]

Interesting that the Experimental HRRR (scheduled to replace the current HRRR this spring) is showing much more moisture across north TX than the other high-res models.

Latest run here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrrx&region=scus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018011418&fh=1

Ok some good news. Just 2 or 3 tenths of an inch of precip can make a world of difference. Still plenty of time for models to bring in the moisture.

[Captmorg70]

Interesting that the Experimental HRRR (scheduled to replace the current HRRR this spring) is showing much more moisture across north TX than the other high-res models.

Latest run here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrrx&region=scus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018011418&fh=1

That is what could make a difference for DFW, more moisture and the setup begins sooner. The trend is looking like NETx should have a good shot, also toward CTx.

[Rgv20]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
250 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS POSSIBLE DUE TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.A cold front will move through Monday night and bring with it
cold temperatures, strong winds, and a wintry mix of
precipitation. Wintry precipitation will begin across the northern
Hill Country and Austin between midnight and 6am Tuesday spreading
south through the day. Precipitation will begin as a mix of sleet
and freezing rain with some snow mixing in across the Hill
Country, Austin metro area, and the Rio Grande Plains Tuesday
afternoon. With ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch
expected significant travel impacts are possible during the day on
Tuesday not just on bridges and overpasses, but also on surface
streets as well due to the cold temperatures. With temperatures
remaining below freezing overnight Tuesday into Wednesday any
accumulated frozen precipitation could remain into Wednesday
morning.

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-221-223-151100-
/O.NEW.KEWX.WS.A.0001.180116T0600Z-180117T0000Z/
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Wilson-Gonzales-
Including the cities of Llano, Burnet, Georgetown, Del Rio,
Rocksprings, Leakey, Kerrville, Bandera, Fredericksburg, Boerne,
Blanco, San Marcos, Austin, Bastrop, Giddings, Bracketville,
Uvalde, Hondo, San Antonio, New Braunfels, Seguin, Lockhart,
La Grange, Floresville, and Gonzales
250 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Significant icing possible. The ice will result in
dangerous travel conditions for late Monday tonight through the
day on Tuesday. Total ice accumulations of up around one tenth
of an inch are expected with isolated totals up to one quarter
inch.

* WHERE...Most of South Central Texas.

* WHEN...From late Monday night through Tuesday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...In addition to the wintry precipitation and
the impacts of accumlating freezing rain, sleet, and snow
temperatures will be very cold. Temperatures will drop into the
upper 20s by Tuesday afternoon and with strong north winds
windchill values could drop into the teens. Overnight Tuesday
into Wednesday as temperatures continue to drop some single
digit windchill values will be possible in the Hill Country.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.

&&

$$

[Texas Snow]

If this doesn’t get filled in soon I am going to lose my mind!