Texas Winter 2017-2018

[South Texas Storms]

0z NAM keeps the snow around NTX longer in another round tuesday like the Canadian. Several inches S/Se of DFW. Each NAM run is getting wetter and more northward. Still not yet within its 48h range

Yeah it looks like it continues to trend towards the wetter GFS. Keep it coming!

[stormlover2013]

Could be a trend u never know

[Ntxw]

Sorry, I just joined yesterday. How do we upload a pic or gif?

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[Ntxw]

0z GFS is snowing by midnight at DFW Mon-Tues. From Abilene to Texarkana, at or below freezing. Looks like mostly snow event up here

[Ntxw]

Tuesday morning, lightly snowing at DFW still and cold, snow down to Waco and Austin is sleeting

Looks like 0.50-0.75" of liquid for the hill country and around Austin which is a lot for sleet

[missygirl810]

What is everyone's thoughts on snow totals?

[Ntxw]

Some sleet and/or light freezing for the western half of SE Texas. Houston included with light qpf

[Ntxw]

What is everyone's thoughts on snow totals?

Dusting up to 3" depending on convective banding. We won't have a specific idea until we get into good HI RES range. It will be tricky also because temps will be very cold so the usual 10:1 ratio maps might not apply completely on tropical tidbits. 15:1 or more in some cases.

[South Texas Storms]

Tuesday morning, lightly snowing at DFW still and cold, snow down to Waco and Austin is sleeting

Looks like 0.50-0.75" of liquid for the hill country and around Austin which is a lot for sleet

0z GFS also trended wetter as the models so far are holding a bit more energy over the Rockies leading to more moisture across TX. Also has trended a bit colder leading to more sleet vs freezing rain across central TX.

[stormlover2013]

South Texas, u think models will keep trending wetter or flip back tomorrow night more dry ?

[Ntxw]

Looks like a no go for this run on the GFS Thursday. Keeps the north and south vorticity separate. Different than it's past few runs back to the other day.

[South Texas Storms]

South Texas, u think models will keep trending wetter or flip back tomorrow night more dry ?

I hope for a continuing wet trend. We'll see by tomorrow though.

[SouthernMet]

I am becoming concerned for very hazardous driving conditions for areas along and south of I-20, especially Johnson, Ellis, Bosque, Hill & Navarro Counties in North Central tx Monday night into Tuesday and possibly beyond. Imo, this is where the more significant Sleet/Snow accumulations will be possible, and with temps in the low-mid 20’s, like Ntxw pointed out the accumulation ratio will be higher than the usual 10:1, and everything should stick to roadways on contact and refreeze again Tuesday night with temps in the teens.

The possibility of backbuiliding snow bands exists and will need to be watched closely especially in the counties listed above, south of Interstate 20. A layer of sleet/ice with potentially 1-3” of snow on top with isolated higher amounts for Hillsboro/Cleburne/Waxahachie/Corsicana will cause very dangerous driving conditions even after the precipitation ends. Please use caution if driving in these areas. Moisture flow is going to be ripe in our southern counties coming from the gulf and convective bands + backbuilding bands will cause havoc in these areas. Also, winds sustained at 15-25 mph with higher gusts cannot be ruled out, leading to minor drifts, blowing slow and low visibility’s in these counties. Stay tuned...

[Ntxw]

Yeah, even in the northern areas, just light precipitation is enough when temps are in the mid 20s. It will stick very fast and even on the roads. Everything will probably shut down Tuesday morning from the Red River to Waco-Tyler from snow. It's not just the precip it is the very cold temps that makes the situation worse. If we were 31-33 then we might just be talking about wet roads and only elevated surfaces but that won't be the case.

STS mentioned more energy holding back into the Rockies and some energy even from the trough out west could provide an increased period of lift than just isentropic lift. That may be what the NAM and other guidance are sniffing out. Even if radar is light towards the end, it won't take much to keep the machine going when the column is fully saturated.

Further south central Texas definitely needs to be concerned about sleet. That is a road killer, and the increased qpf is troubling.

[wxman22]

The Gfs got more interesting for the Houston area lol.I wonder if the Canadians orginal solution it was showing a few days ago of a almost state wide winter storm may actually verify? Time will tell...

[Shoshana]

I keep coming back here and going to all the news weather sites. The locals here in Austin are really pushing the ice for Tuesday. Guess Monday will be nuts at the grocery stores!

[aggiecutter]

[Ntxw]

Here are a couple of snowmaps from pivotalweather of the GFS and CMC. It uses the Kuchera method vs just the 10:1 which I like better because it takes into account ratios (for this event) may be 15:1 or more in areas to the north. It doesn't count sleet or freezing rain. GDPS is the Canadian





Not sure why the CMC hasn't updated on tidbits but has elsewhere

[stormlover2013]

What does Cmc run look like

[TheAustinMan]

Wowza. GFS output for Austin early Tuesday afternoon. Pretty saturated in the air column and fairly snow-like as well. We'll see how this changes as we get closer to the event, but I'm definitely saving this model output.