Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Cpv17]

Are temps colder for central and southeast TX on the 12z Euro than the 0z?

[Texas Snow]

The second system on Thursday may be more impactful than the Tuesday storm, the Euro shows an ice storm for central and southeast Texas including the Austin and Houston area's, the 12z Canadian and GFS also hinted at this...

Anything big for DFW this run on Thursday?

Nope

[Ntxw]

The second system on Thursday may be more impactful than the Tuesday storm, the Euro shows an ice storm for central and southeast Texas including the Austin and Houston area's, the 12z Canadian and GFS also hinted at this...

Anything big for DFW this run on Thursday?

Euro is furthest south run yet so DFW misses on the precip Thursday

[orangeblood]

Still too far out to determine exact tract of 2nd system so I would advise everyone to not get too excited about what each model run is printing out but the good news is that the energy appears to be there, that is step one, next step is the tract but won't know too much until probably Monday

Exciting week coming up for Texas winter weather fans that's for sure!!

[wxman22]

Are temps colder for central and southeast TX on the 12z Euro than the 0z?

It is slightly warmer by a degree or two but the Euro is trending towards the GFS and Canadian, pushing most of the moisture out by the time the air is cold enough for frozen precip, for right now it looks like the precip may end as light sleet or freezing rain across the southern Half of Southeast Texas.The northern half of the area going into central and north Texas may have greater impacts though as the cold air comes in sooner, but i wouldn't let my guard down just yet on Tuesday's system until we at least get into range of the better mesoscale models.The Thursday system could be the one to watch, as the system looks more potent, and if there is still cold air in place as the 12z Euro shows (and to some extent the GFS and CMC) there could be a pretty good storm as there will be more lift and moisture to work with.

[stormlover2013]

Image

[Ntxw]

Euro continues the pattern beyond truncation that delivers more systems with more cold air lingering around. Seriously need to look at that 1978 analog when Jan and Feb were blocky to our northeast with the Alaskan systems digging through. Systems just have no place to go. It's different when the GOA lows crash in Canada vs the US.

Both GFS, Euro and their respective ensembles drain more cold air from the Arctic/Siberia into Northwest Canada



So if you think Jan is best this winter has to offer, better think again. Remember some folks were touting a prolonged thaw after the New Year's outbreak.

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro shows the Thursday system farther south with snow and ice across central Texas.

What’s causing this? Does the low/trough dig further back sw?

Yeah the trough digs deep into TX on the 12z Euro. That allows frozen precip to develop farther south this run.

12z Euro Ensemble is more bullish on snow/ice across TX over the next week.

[South Texas Storms]

Euro continues the pattern beyond truncation that delivers more systems with more cold air lingering around. Seriously need to look at that 1978 analog when Jan and Feb were blocky to our northeast with the Alaskan systems digging through. Systems just have no place to go. It's different when the GOA lows crash in Canada vs the US.

Both GFS, Euro and their respective ensembles drain more cold air from the Arctic/Siberia into Northwest Canada

http://i68.tinypic.com/9uaphh.gif

So if you think Jan is best this winter has to offer, better think again. Remember some folks were touting a prolonged thaw after the New Year's outbreak.

Yeah and the models also show an active storm track across the Southern U.S. as well in the extended. We could very well see several more snow/ice threats over the next few weeks.

[Cpv17]

12z Euro shows the Thursday system farther south with snow and ice across central Texas.

What’s causing this? Does the low/trough dig further back sw?

Yeah the trough digs deep into TX on the 12z Euro. That allows frozen precip to develop farther south this run.

12z Euro Ensemble is more bullish on snow/ice across TX over the next week.

My TWC app has a high of 52 for me here in Wharton on Thursday so I’m guessing it’ll probably end up being colder than that correct?

[South Texas Storms]

What’s causing this? Does the low/trough dig further back sw?

Yeah the trough digs deep into TX on the 12z Euro. That allows frozen precip to develop farther south this run.

12z Euro Ensemble is more bullish on snow/ice across TX over the next week.

My TWC app has a high of 52 for me here in Wharton on Thursday so I’m guessing it’ll probably end up being colder than that correct?

Yeah I would tend to think so. 12z Euro shows high temps across southeast TX struggling to get much above freezing on Thursday.

[Cpv17]

Yeah the trough digs deep into TX on the 12z Euro. That allows frozen precip to develop farther south this run.

12z Euro Ensemble is more bullish on snow/ice across TX over the next week.

My TWC app has a high of 52 for me here in Wharton on Thursday so I’m guessing it’ll probably end up being colder than that correct?

Yeah I would tend to think so. 12z Euro shows high temps across southeast TX struggling to get much above freezing on Thursday.

Thanks STS for answering me. Really appreciate it.

[Texas Snow]

What’s causing this? Does the low/trough dig further back sw?

Yeah the trough digs deep into TX on the 12z Euro. That allows frozen precip to develop farther south this run.

12z Euro Ensemble is more bullish on snow/ice across TX over the next week.

My TWC app has a high of 52 for me here in Wharton on Thursday so I’m guessing it’ll probably end up being colder than that correct?

My opinion, if you want to know what the weather is ever going to actually do, is to delete TWC app and look at your local NWS office instead. They may not always nail it but they are WAY more in tune with all the variables.

[South Texas Storms]

18z NAM continues to slowly shift towards the other models with the round of light frozen precip Monday night into Tuesday.

[Ntxw]

Remember that most weather apps apply only direct model data with little forecast input by any met. They are often not reliable beyond 3 days as we always say for guidance. Same source. Once you have some analysis involved then it gets better but most apps just does not include.

[Cpv17]

Yeah the trough digs deep into TX on the 12z Euro. That allows frozen precip to develop farther south this run.

12z Euro Ensemble is more bullish on snow/ice across TX over the next week.

My TWC app has a high of 52 for me here in Wharton on Thursday so I’m guessing it’ll probably end up being colder than that correct?

My opinion, if you want to know what the weather is ever going to actually do, is to delete TWC app and look at your local NWS office instead. They may not always nail it but they are WAY more in tune with all the variables.

I have the TWC and Weatherbug apps. I haven’t found any apps better than those for the weather.

[Ntxw]

18z NAM continues to slowly shift towards the other models with the round of light frozen precip Monday night into Tuesday.

Yeah, NAM is doing what globals did some days ago. Once inside its 48hr range is best to use it convective features

[Longhornmaniac8]

Looking at the Skew-Ts for Central Texas, it looks extremely close to an all snow event here, especially on the north side of town. Solid saturated below freezing layer from about 700 mb to 900-925 mb, with some drying in the lowest levels.

There seems to be a small warm nose getting to 1-4C right around 850, depending on which model and hour you look at. The GFS keeps the saturated layer right at 0 for the site I picked just north of Austin.

As tends to be the case, a few miles may make a big difference.

[downsouthman1]

My TWC app has a high of 52 for me here in Wharton on Thursday so I’m guessing it’ll probably end up being colder than that correct?

My opinion, if you want to know what the weather is ever going to actually do, is to delete TWC app and look at your local NWS office instead. They may not always nail it but they are WAY more in tune with all the variables.

I have the TWC and Weatherbug apps. I haven’t found any apps better than those for the weather.

The NWS website itself to me trumps all apps.

[missygirl810]

Just got this in my email.....



Special Weather Statement
Weather Updated: Jan 13 2:58PM
Issued by the National Weather Service
For Hunt County, Texas
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT UNTIL 5PM CST SAT ...WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING... * LOCATIONS IMPACTED...ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. * TIMING...TURNING MUCH COLDER WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY EVENING. * ACCUMULATIONS...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE, SLEET, AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH OF ICE AND LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF SLEET AND SNOW. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS AND POSSIBLY VERY DIFFICULT MONDAY NIGHT. EVEN AFTER PRECIPITATION ENDS TUESDAY MORNING, TRAVEL MAY REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. * TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S MONDAY NIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL WARM-UP FOR WEDNESDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE POSSIBILITY OF HAZARDOUS AND DISRUPTIVE TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXISTS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN ADDITION TO PLANNING FOR POSSIBLE DELAYS AND ALTERNATE TRAVEL PLANS, PREPARATIONS SHOULD ALSO BE MADE TO PROTECT THE THINGS MOST VULNERABLE DURING UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER: INCLUDING PETS, PIPES, PLANTS, AND OF COURSE...PEOPLE.