Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Ntxw]

And to think some DFW folks were angst about not getting snow . Could end up jack-potting for the winter. Just had to be patient, if it keeps being cold eventually it will snow. It can't snow if it isn't cold.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Def no snow for Houston. Only chance of snow is if lift occurs much higher in the atmosphere and temps cool a bit above the surface. I doubt this though.

Im almost doubting anything from happening here. I think the Ouchita shadow is going to potentially bite us. Its kind of showing up on the latest run. This entire event is based on lift from the dense high pressure rushing in. If it this doesnt happen, may not happen at all for SE Tx. If temps are about 5 degrees colder though, which i think they will be, likely getting an ice event.

Experts, how cold of a layer or how much below 0C aloft does it take for sleet? Not keen on an ice event here.

Happy for the Ntx crew though, friend sent me a vid of the "flurries" in Ntx a few days ago and it wasnt exactly exciting...

[Ralph's Weather]

And to think some DFW folks were angst about not getting snow . Could end up jack-potting for the winter. Just had to be patient, if it keeps being cold eventually it will snow. It can't snow if it isn't cold.

And we have 7 weeks left in our snow season yet with cold air seemingly always present or nearby at least.

[Ntxw]

Def no snow for Houston. Only chance of snow is if lift occurs much higher in the atmosphere and temps cool a bit above the surface. I doubt this though.

Im almost doubting anything from happening here. I think the Ouchita shadow is going to potentially bite us. Its kind of showing up on the latest run. This entire event is based on lift from the dense high pressure rushing in. If it this doesnt happen, may not happen at all for SE Tx. If temps are about 5 degrees colder though, which i think they will be, likely getting an ice event.

Experts, how cold of a layer or how much below 0C aloft does it take for sleet? Not keen on an ice event here.

Happy for the Ntx crew though, friend sent me a vid of the "flurries" in Ntx a few days ago and it wasnt exactly exciting...

S and SE Texas tends to depend on big ULL to cool the column for snow events. Wxman57 gave us a good lesson about profiles the past few days.

I think in general the maps are too happy with freezing rain that never happens. I think it's a flaw with the model or translation of it. It's probably going to be graupel or sleet once it changes from rain. A freezing rain profile is unmistakable with the big warm nose. Would need persistent overrunning for such an event that is not present here.

[stormlover2013]

Tonight and tomorrow we will know ?

[Haris]

Def no snow for Houston. Only chance of snow is if lift occurs much higher in the atmosphere and temps cool a bit above the surface. I doubt this though.

Im almost doubting anything from happening here. I think the Ouchita shadow is going to potentially bite us. Its kind of showing up on the latest run. This entire event is based on lift from the dense high pressure rushing in. If it this doesnt happen, may not happen at all for SE Tx. If temps are about 5 degrees colder though, which i think they will be, likely getting an ice event.

Experts, how cold of a layer or how much below 0C aloft does it take for sleet? Not keen on an ice event here.

Happy for the Ntx crew though, friend sent me a vid of the "flurries" in Ntx a few days ago and it wasnt exactly exciting...

S and SE Texas tends to depend on big ULL to cool the column for snow events. Wxman57 gave us a good lesson about profiles the past few days.

I think in general the maps are too happy with freezing rain that never happens. I think it's a flaw with the model or translation of it. It's probably going to be graupel or sleet once it changes from rain. A freezing rain profile is unmistakable with the big warm nose. Would need persistent overrunning for such an event that is not present here.

I think places between Waco and DFW have a good chance of some snow along with some ice and sleet prior to the snow Next Tuesday. Central Texas (Austin Metro, Hill Co) will likely see a good freezing rain sleet combo for several hours with a brief transition to snow towards the end with ice accum around .1" and snow/sleet accum near 1/2" . S TX will not see much if anything. Houston area could see scattered light freezing rain. No sleet or snow expected per current trends. -Harry

[Ntxw]

Graphic from FW

[Ntxw]

Snow has taken front page but yes there is still a big HP system sitting up north with this event. Possibly strongest of the season so far

[stormlover2013]

What does that mean ?

[downsouthman1]

What does that mean ?

Cold.

[dhweather]

Meanwhile this is becoming more consistent as well throughout the latest runs now within 5 day range. Digging S/W as a potential big event come Thursday. This might be something the NWS may consider winter storm watches for if the trends continue.

http://i63.tinypic.com/vdzfoi.png

Outside of temperatures, this is the chart that really matters. Who was it that said follow the vorticity?

NWS Dennis Cavanaugh way back when he was here in 2011 during superbowl when it snowed in DFW instead of Houston as forecast.

That is a big ticket item 500mb look. If the models are eroding the cold too fast, potential problem.

Dennis is the man! His AFD’s were a thing of beauty. Little Rock got a good one.

[Texas Snow]

Dennis is the man! His AFD’s were a thing of beauty. Little Rock got a good one.

Wait, he used to post on here? I love that man,in a totally plutonic weather nerd kind of way. He changed how Forecast Discussions were done by everyone in the Fort Worth office.

[JayDT]

GFS delivers with the 2nd system!

Nice! If the bullseye were over Dallas and Tarrant counties, now THAT would be a delivery for me

[wxman57]

[quote="bubba hotep"]GFS delivers with the 2nd system!
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_28.png[/quot

Those maps include sleet, which is what it looks like the GFS is forecasting for the DFW area. The GFS predicts a warm nose above D-FW during the precip, resulting in sleet vs. snow. It has cold enough temps aloft for snow up around the Red River, however.

[Cpv17]

Looks like you guys up in NTX could get clobbered with some snow/ice. Hopefully that pans out for you guys up there. Looks like nothing but some cold rain in SETX, but I guess I can’t complain much since we already got 2” of snow in early December.

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro shows the Thursday system farther south with snow and ice across central Texas.

[Haris]

12z euro brings a major snow and ice storm next Wednesday right after Tuesday for Austin !!!

[wxman22]

The second system on Thursday may be more impactful than the Tuesday storm, the Euro shows an ice storm for central and southeast Texas including the Austin and Houston area's, the 12z Canadian and GFS also hinted at this...

[Cpv17]

12z Euro shows the Thursday system farther south with snow and ice across central Texas.

What’s causing this? Does the low/trough dig further back sw?

[gpsnowman]

The second system on Thursday may be more impactful than the Tuesday storm, the Euro shows an ice storm for central and southeast Texas including the Austin and Houston area's, the 12z Canadian and GFS also hinted at this...

Anything big for DFW this run on Thursday?