Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Texas Snow]

Euro also going towards what some of the most aggressive ENS members were showing for the 2nd system later next week...if the cold air can hold on through Friday, that could be a very potent winter storm for Texas as well

The trailing system has the best potential for something big.

I’ve been curious where do y’all see the Euro models. Do you use a pay website?

Every Euro has been via a pay site until relatively recently. Weather.US has it for free now. That helps those that want to see it themselves, but also allows it to be posted here for those that don't really look into models since it is a non-pay site.

[wxman57]

I’ve been curious where do y’all see the Euro models. Do you use a pay website?

My company pays for the full Euro data. You only see a part of it on Maue's page. The full Euro is in 3-hr increments, not 6 or 12-hr. I'm not sure of the exact cost for the data, but it's not something that an individual could afford easily. It is possible to purchase a part of the dataset, which is what I think Maue is doing.

[WeatherDuck]

The NWS has a 50-60% chance of wintry mix Monday night/Tuesday morning for my area just NE of Austin.

What is it looking like as to the amount of precipitation?

[Portastorm]

Question for wxman57 ... you keep mentioning your concern about a lack of available moisture and you referenced the Euro. Well, for Austin, the 0z run and the ensembles show 0.5" for Austin. If that falls as freezing rain and sleet, that is plenty to seriously disrupt travel. So when you make these mentions of available moisture, is it just in relation to snow? North Texas only?

[Portastorm]

Question for wxman57 ... you keep mentioning your concern about a lack of available moisture and you referenced the Euro. Well, for Austin, the 0z run and the ensembles show 0.5" for Austin. If that falls as freezing rain and sleet, that is plenty to seriously disrupt travel. So when you make these mentions of available moisture, is it just in relation to snow? North Texas only?

Actually, I won't delete this in case someone is responding but I'm wrong. I do see where the 0z Euro run only showed 0.1-0.2 for Austin while the EPS (euro ensemble) showed 0.5". Sorry. I'm wrong. That's what I get for doubting you.

[Ntxw]

12z GFS is holding consistent for DFW. Starting out as some sleet but quickly changing over to snow midnight to morning Tuesday via isentropic lift. Temps in the 20s and blustery all day. Everything is stable at the DFW forecast sites.

Austin has a mixed bag of freezing rain and sleet Tues morning to afternoon. Light sleet and light ZR towards the end in the northern and western zones of Houston before it ends on the run

[Ntxw]

Meanwhile this is becoming more consistent as well throughout the latest runs now within 5 day range. Digging S/W as a potential big event come Thursday. This might be something the NWS may consider winter storm watches for if the trends continue.

[Portastorm]

My selfish concern for our area is the timing of the precip. Frankly, it couldn't be worse for Austin. If things don't turn over until 3 or 4 am, we're going to have a s*#t-show with school districts and businesses trying to decide what to do while people are getting ready for school and work. I hope things are definitive enough by Monday night that some of those calls can be made.

[Ntxw]

Freezing rain, sleet, and snow in N and NW Texas Thursday GFS. It's more west on this run than previous and a tad colder nudging to the Euro

[dhweather]

Meanwhile this is becoming more consistent as well throughout the latest runs now within 5 day range. Digging S/W as a potential big event come Thursday. This might be something the NWS may consider winter storm watches for if the trends continue.

http://i63.tinypic.com/vdzfoi.png

Outside of temperatures, this is the chart that really matters. Who was it that said follow the vorticity?

[dhweather]

My selfish concern for our area is the timing of the precip. Frankly, it couldn't be worse for Austin. If things don't turn over until 3 or 4 am, we're going to have a s*#t-show with school districts and businesses trying to decide what to do while people are getting ready for school and work. I hope things are definitive enough by Monday night that some of those calls can be made.

EM folks will have their hands full on this one. Hopefully by Monday, everything will be clear so decisions can be made early.

[Ntxw]

Meanwhile this is becoming more consistent as well throughout the latest runs now within 5 day range. Digging S/W as a potential big event come Thursday. This might be something the NWS may consider winter storm watches for if the trends continue.

http://i63.tinypic.com/vdzfoi.png

Outside of temperatures, this is the chart that really matters. Who was it that said follow the vorticity?

NWS Dennis Cavanaugh way back when he was here in 2011 during superbowl when it snowed in DFW instead of Houston as forecast.

That is a big ticket item 500mb look. If the models are eroding the cold too fast, potential problem.

[gpsnowman]

My selfish concern for our area is the timing of the precip. Frankly, it couldn't be worse for Austin. If things don't turn over until 3 or 4 am, we're going to have a s*#t-show with school districts and businesses trying to decide what to do while people are getting ready for school and work. I hope things are definitive enough by Monday night that some of those calls can be made.

Hardly a selfish concern Porta. With the majority of the ice/snow falling in the overnight hours, many areas of Texas will have a s-show on their hands. For whatever reason Irving ISD has a day off Tuesday but I believe most ISD's do not. Like you said, some decisions will need to be made Monday evening.

[bubba hotep]

Images?

Seriously though, the Euro trended back towards the 12z run from yesterday. The changes at H5 aren't huge but significant enough to result in vastly different sensible weather. The fast flow and Pacific wavebreaking will make this extremely hard on the models. It appears that the energy associated with this system hasn't even moved into the Pacific yet. It looks to ride the nose of the jet steak and set off a huge break into ridge across WCAN. My confidence in this system just got destroyed by typing that... Lots of room for error in this setup, esp in the wrong direction.

Pacific is coming together, models have done pretty well with this considering. The 00z GFS from last night isn't too far off from what the Euro was showing earlier in the week.

[Ntxw]

CMC is colder than GFS, snows a bit sooner and ends a bit later for DFW with widespread 2-3". Close to warning criteria for Tuesday

[bubba hotep]

With the timing, I think it will be inevitable closings happen Tuesday in DFW. 24-27 when stuff (snow) is falling is not the same as 31-33F. The roads will ice over and snow will stick to it very quick even if little falls. If models are right arctic wonderland in the metroplex comes daylight Tues

What is somewhat unusual about this setup as well is the below normal temps ahead of the Arctic HP...typically, temps sky rocket before a frontal passage like this with southerly return flow. This usually keeps ground temps warm and thus longer for frozen precip to stick. We shouldn't have that issue this time around as ground temps are unusually cold from the recent cold pattern across the eastern 2/3rds of the US.

IMO, This is a Winter Weather Advisory event but could approach warning criteria if PWAT values are higher than currently modeled...

Here is a nice graphic showing the different criteria for North Texas winter weather
http://www.iweathernet.com/wxnetcms/wp- ... -texas.png

They might go warning if it looks like we might push 2" given the temp profile and potential societal impact, even though the warning criteria won't be met.

[bubba hotep]

GFS delivers with the 2nd system!

[gpsnowman]

I think Yukon Cornelius will be happy with that.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

My selfish concern for our area is the timing of the precip. Frankly, it couldn't be worse for Austin. If things don't turn over until 3 or 4 am, we're going to have a s*#t-show with school districts and businesses trying to decide what to do while people are getting ready for school and work. I hope things are definitive enough by Monday night that some of those calls can be made.

Hardly a selfish concern Porta. With the majority of the ice/snow falling in the overnight hours, many areas of Texas will have a s-show on their hands. For whatever reason Irving ISD has a day off Tuesday but I believe most ISD's do not. Like you said, some decisions will need to be made Monday evening.

Richardson ISD has Staff Development/ Student Holiday on Tuesday.

[Brent]

Looks like i picked the right time to come back