Texas Winter 2017-2018

[weatherdude1108]

Euro looks the same just with slightly less precipitation across southeast Texas, the gfs actually shows more precipitation but it’s warmer. The freezing line never gets to i-10 even once the precip has moved out,while the Euro has the freezing line reaching I-10 as early as noon Tuesday, and drops temps into the mid to low 20s overnight Tuesday . Pretty big difference in temps considering how close we are to the event. Based on history I would go with the Euro for temps before the gfs, since the gfs tends to have a warm bias when it comes to shallow air.

Nice summary. Similar issues in play to your west over here in south central Texas. For now, EWX believes the predominant forms of wintry precip for us will be freezing rain into sleet. I concur. I think snow here is more of an outlier this time.

Yeah, I think I will be closed Tuesday. This happened back in 2007 around MLK week. Had an ice event.

LONG TERM (Monday through Friday)...

Concern for winter weather impacts for portions of South-Central
Texas continues to grow for early morning Tuesday through Tuesday
afternoon. Models continue to suggest the likelihood of a wintry mix
of sleet, freezing rain, and possibly snow. Highest confidence of
impacts remains over the Hill Country and northern I-35 corridor
areas, including the Austin Metro. Depending on evolution and if
colder model solutions verify, then portions of San Antonio could
also be affected. The forecast discussion below will concentrate
primarily on this impact time frame as moderate travel and road
impacts could be realized depending on temperature and precipitation
evolution.

A strong and shallow Arctic front will be positioned across the
southern Plains Monday ahead of a strong surface high pressure system
in the northern Plains with a strong longwave trough over the
eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS. Southerly isentropic upglide will begin
Monday ahead of the front that will slowly saturate the low and mid-
levels. Frontal timing issues remain with the ECMWF being the fastest
but with colder temperatures, the GFS is currently the slowest and
on the warmer side of the model temperature envelope, while the NAM
is in the middle of both timing-wise but with temperatures more
similar to the ECMWF. Despite the GFS being the warmest of model
guidance, winter weather impacts still appear possible and thus the
increasing concern/confidence of winter precipitation impacts.

Precipitation will initially be all rain along and ahead of the
front late Monday night and into early Tuesday morning through 3-4am.
Thereafter however, the shallow arctic airmass will surge through
the region and drop temperatures rapidly. With isentropic lift
overtop the front, post-frontal precipitation is expected. The big
question will be how much moisture and lift will be present in
conjunction with the near-surface sub-freezing layer. Overall model
temperature profile envelope suggests sleet and freezing rain as the
predominate precipitation type early Tuesday morning through at
least noon for the Hill Country, portions of the northern I-35
corridor, which includes the Austin metro. Some snow could mix in but
dentritic growth zone appears slightly dry vs. the much more
saturated lower-levels which would support freezing rain/drizzle and
sleet mix. Going into Tuesday afternoon, models diverge on amount of
precipitation with ECMWF and NAM ending precipitation while GFS
maintains enough upglide for light amounts to persist. Despite the
light amounts, temperatures could be near or below freezing and
impacts further worsened. Have held on to low-end slight change
winter mix chances through Tuesday afternoon to account for this
possibility for now. Will not get into details on accumulations just
yet but am inclined to say that winter weather headlines will be
likely for Tuesday given current model solutions and trends. At least
slight to moderate travel and road impacts could occur.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[Ntxw]

Euro looks the same just with slightly less precipitation across southeast Texas, the gfs actually shows more precipitation but it’s warmer. The freezing line never gets to i-10 even once the precip has moved out,while the Euro has the freezing line reaching I-10 as early as noon Tuesday, and drops temps into the mid to low 20s overnight Tuesday . Pretty big difference in temps considering how close we are to the event. Based on history I would go with the Euro for temps before the gfs, since the gfs tends to have a warm bias when it comes to shallow air.

Nice summary. Similar issues in play to your west over here in south central Texas. For now, EWX believes the predominant forms of wintry precip for us will be freezing rain into sleet. I concur. I think snow here is more of an outlier this time.

Yeah I am hoping up here in DFW the cold air profile changes quickly allowing the changeover to be rain to snow instead of ice. Already I am thinking many businesses and school districts are watching this closely, contemplating any closings. Tuesday could be a tricky day around Texas. Stay tuned, Monday will be a big news day for weather.

With the timing, I think it will be inevitable closings happen Tuesday in DFW. 24-27 when stuff (snow) is falling is not the same as 31-33F. The roads will ice over and snow will stick to it very quick even if little falls. If models are right arctic wonderland in the metroplex comes daylight Tues

[missygirl810]

Did I read correctly that east of Dallas, like Hunt Co and further, will have to watch closely as well?

[gpsnowman]

An all nighter Mon/Tue?? Who's in? Might need to purchase some stronger coffee.

[Ntxw]

Did I read correctly that east of Dallas, like Hunt Co and further, will have to watch closely as well?

Everyone north of an Abilene-Waco-Tyler line will need monitoring. Hunt Co may be one of the areas that get the most.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: An all nighter Mon/Tue?? Who's in? Might need to purchase some stronger coffee.

Do we really have a choice? . Can't miss it at the risk it may not snow again for 24 months!

Though it may again Thursday...

[missygirl810]

Did I read correctly that east of Dallas, like Hunt Co and further, will have to watch closely as well?

Everyone north of an Abilene-Waco-Tyler line will need monitoring. Hunt Co may be one of the areas that get the most.

Thanks Ntxw!!!! I hope it is not a lot of ice!!!

[wxman57]

Here are a couple of model-projected upper-air soundings for the event. First, DFW. Note that when the temperature and dewpoint lines are close together (indicates precip) they are both well left of the diagonal-running 0C line (sub-freezing). That indicates precip falling in the DFW area will likely be snow.

The bottom image is for Houston. Note that the precip is forming/falling with the tempature above freezing aloft and at the surface. GFS is similar. They're saying that the air aloft will be significantly warmer than it was during the Dec. 8 snow event. Both indicate that southeast Texas will not likely see snow with this event. Possibly a bit of sleet as the precip trails off.

Bottom line, I think we will see snow from NE TX possibly down to Waco with this event. The big question is available moisture. The EC indicates very little moisture available - only a dusting of snow.

[gpsnowman]

:uarrow: An all nighter Mon/Tue?? Who's in? Might need to purchase some stronger coffee.

Do we really have a choice? . Can't miss it at the risk it may not snow again for 24 months!

Though it may again Thursday...

Opticsguy post on the previous page showing the ensemble temp graph, has Thursday high in the 30's. Lowest I have seen for that day so far. Most of the local forecasts have Thursday in the 40's but have been trending lower.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: An all nighter Mon/Tue?? Who's in? Might need to purchase some stronger coffee.

Do we really have a choice? . Can't miss it at the risk it may not snow again for 24 months!

Though it may again Thursday...

Opticsguy post on the previous page showing the ensemble temp graph, has Thursday high in the 30's. Lowest I have seen for that day so far. Most of the local forecasts have Thursday in the 40's but have been trending lower.

6z gfs has a crippling ice storm for DFW Thursday. Euro and GFS are coming together at 500mb. I hope we keep some colder aloft temps to be snow and not freezing rain.

[chrisdanger76]

Looks like i'll be watching the skies on Monday evening into Tuesday.

[Ralph's Weather]

Did I read correctly that east of Dallas, like Hunt Co and further, will have to watch closely as well?

Yes east of DFW will likely be the bullseye.

[downsouthman1]

Did I read correctly that east of Dallas, like Hunt Co and further, will have to watch closely as well?

Everyone north of an Abilene-Waco-Tyler line will need monitoring. Hunt Co may be one of the areas that get the most.

Further south too but obviously the concern is more iffy and more icy.

[missygirl810]

Did I read correctly that east of Dallas, like Hunt Co and further, will have to watch closely as well?

Yes east of DFW will likely be the bullseye.

Thanks!!!!

[Ntxw]

Did I read correctly that east of Dallas, like Hunt Co and further, will have to watch closely as well?

Everyone north of an Abilene-Waco-Tyler line will need monitoring. Hunt Co may be one of the areas that get the most.

Further south too but obviously the concern is more iffy and not icy.

Yes further south as well. Temps north of the line I mentioned will easily be cold enough. To the south will have to watch cold air move in real time to see if the GFS is too slow

[downsouthman1]

Everyone north of an Abilene-Waco-Tyler line will need monitoring. Hunt Co may be one of the areas that get the most.

Further south too but obviously the concern is more iffy and not icy.

Yes further south as well. Temps north of the line I mentioned will easily be cold enough. To the south will have to watch cold air move in real time to see if the GFS is too slow

Had to edit. I meant more icy which sucks.

[wxman57]

By the way, the EC is colder aloft than the GFS for Thursday in the DFW area. It indicates more significant snow Thursday than Mon/Tue. Of course, that's way too far out to have any confidence.

[bubba hotep]

Both the EPS and GEFS are very supportive of two winter wx events for N. Texas next week with the I20 corridor looking to be ground zero.

[orangeblood]

With the timing, I think it will be inevitable closings happen Tuesday in DFW. 24-27 when stuff (snow) is falling is not the same as 31-33F. The roads will ice over and snow will stick to it very quick even if little falls. If models are right arctic wonderland in the metroplex comes daylight Tues

What is somewhat unusual about this setup as well is the below normal temps ahead of the Arctic HP...typically, temps sky rocket before a frontal passage like this with southerly return flow. This usually keeps ground temps warm and thus longer for frozen precip to stick. We shouldn't have that issue this time around as ground temps are unusually cold from the recent cold pattern across the eastern 2/3rds of the US.

IMO, This is a Winter Weather Advisory event but could approach warning criteria if PWAT values are higher than currently modeled...

Here is a nice graphic showing the different criteria for North Texas winter weather

[opticsguy]

When the news showed 80 Oncor trucks on a barge headed to Puerto Rico, I told my wife we'd have a crippling ice storm, sarcastically, of course. Why they decided to send them to PR now, instead of after ice storm season, is beyond me. Actually, if you want to be in PR without AC, now is the time.