Texas Winter 2017-2018

[bubba hotep]

Euro also going towards what some of the most aggressive ENS members were showing for the 2nd system later next week...if the cold air can hold on through Friday, that could be a very potent winter storm for Texas as well

The trailing system has the best potential for something big.

[Captmorg70]

Euro also going towards what some of the most aggressive ENS members were showing for the 2nd system later next week...if the cold air can hold on through Friday, that could be a very potent winter storm for Texas as well

The trailing system has the best potential for something big.

I’ve been curious where do y’all see the Euro models. Do you use a pay website?

[TheProfessor]

Well I got about 5.5" of snow and some snow drifts that are 8-12" deep. It wasn't the huge storm it could have been, but it was definitely a fun storm. Probably the 2nd most time I've spent out in a storm just ahead of the 14" I got in 2010 and right behind the Super Bowl storm.

[missygirl810]

Think I will rent one of those machines that makes snow. Anybody want to party with me? LOL I WILL see snow in my yard this winter!!!!!

I am in!

YES!!!!!

[Lagreeneyes03]

Euro Op also going towards what some of the most aggressive ENS members were showing for the 2nd system later next week...if the cold air can hold on through Friday, that could be a very potent winter storm for Texas as well

I know most of the models and forecasts had a pretty big warmup after Thursday, what's the chance that they're wrong and it stays cold?

[Cpv17]

It looks like chances for precip are diminishing for SE TX for Tuesday.

[Tammie]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
317 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

.LONG TERM...
/Sunday through next weekend/

The cold airmass currently in place will begin to modify on Sunday
as the surface ridge works its way east into the Ohio and
Mississippi River Valleys. High temperatures will reach the 40s
and 50s Sunday afternoon. Weak return flow and the subsequent
dewpoint increase will keep low temperatures generally in the 30s
for Sunday night, though a few spots near the Red River may see
upper 20s.

On Monday, the axis of an upper level trough (extending southwest
from a deepening low over the Great Lakes) will swing southeast
through the central part of the CONUS, sending another strong
surge of arctic air southward through the Southern Plains.
High temperatures ahead of the cold front will range from the
upper 40s along the Red River to the upper 50s across the southern
counties. The cold front will approach the Red River around noon,
then surge quickly south through the forecast area Monday
afternoon and evening.

A period of isentropic lift will develop behind the front as the
axis of the upper trough approaches, leading to a broad region of
stratiform precipitation above the frontal layer. Precipitation
will begin across the northern third of the region Monday
afternoon, and should initially be in all liquid form. As
temperatures drop to and below freezing Monday evening, a
changeover to a wintry mix can be expected. The timing of the
changeover is dependent on how fast temperatures can fall below
freezing. Models are agreeing on this being a particularly cold
airmass, so just about all of the forecast area will see at least
a chance of wintry precipitation, due to the expectation that all
zones will fall below freezing prior to precipitation coming to an
end.

Model soundings indicate that a warm layer will remain overhead
during the early evening hours, but this layer will likely erode
late evening and overnight due to height falls associated with the
approaching trough and evaporative cooling processes. Rather than
try to be too specific with timing this early on, there is merely one
messy grid (00-06Z Tuesday) where a mix of all winter precip
types will be possible. After 06Z, the feeling is that precip will
be snow along and north of I-20, with sleet changing to snow
south of I-20.

The question then becomes, how much and where? At this time it
appears that ice accumulations would be fairly minor, and if
there are any significant accumulations, it would be in the form
of sleet/snow. There are still variation in model data with
regard to available moisture and it is still too early to
accurately predict accumulations. The NAM remains the dry outlier,
and if verifies, would mean little or no accumulations. But with
the GFS and ECMWF indicating more moisture, there is increasing
confidence that accumulation`s significant enough to affect travel
will occur somewhere. More will be known later this weekend when
we get into the range of the more high-resolution model runs.

Subsidence will spread in during the day Tuesday, bringing an end
to precipitation by midday. Bitterly cold conditions are then
expected with teens and lower 20s expected for Tuesday night lows.
A gradual warming trend will commence late Wednesday and Thursday
ahead of a fast-moving upper low. This next system will bring a
slight chance of rain, possibly mixed with snow, Thursday and
Thursday night.

[Ntxw]

Yeah Thursday looks interesting on the Euro. Definitely more digging south and west of most guidance and bowling ball look...

[Ntxw]

Not too much change from the 6z GFS besides shifts by a hair mostly more westward with heavier qpf over time. I-20 to Red River has a good shot at snow with the Arctic front down to Waco. Adjacent areas of East Texas as well and far Northeast Texas. Some mix in KAUS of freezing rain and sleet. Event is now in 3 days. I don't think we'll see anymore drastic changes synoptic wise for Monday night/Tuesday.

If you are sitting along I-20 just north or south, you'd be feeling good about a wind driven snow in the 20s for this event. Some icing problems in S-Central Texas to northern areas of SE Texas from the hill country to Austin if the GFS is right.

3" near Austin is mostly sleet and freezing rain. As for as totals once we get into the HI RES guidance range, we'll see the convective banding and have a better idea. NAM is still out long range for it but it's been trending north quietly with qpf

[Ntxw]

6z GFS round 2 Thursday with an ice storm I-20 and north. Much more digging like the Euro now. Heavy rain developing in East Texas. Bubba and orangeblood is right, this has potential to be big if cold temps are there (likely will be with cold air already in place)

Looking at 0.25-0.5" of qpf as freezing rain, yikes. Hopefully the GFS is too quick eroding the cold aloft and we can get a double whammy snow event. But the trend overnight has been much more digging in the west. The Pacific Northwest trough/system comes crashing down vs eroding in the north prior runs.

[gpsnowman]

Excellent trends overnight. Question though, is the Monday/Tuesday event mainly an overnight storm?Daughter is off school but I would have to work quite early Tuesday.

[Tammie]

I just received this Special Weather Statement from the Fort Worth NWS for Denton


WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXASMONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BITTER COLD EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT




* LOCATIONS IMPACTED

ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.


* TIMING

MONDAY EVENING FROM THE RED RIVER TO INTERSTATE 20,
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20.


* ACCUMULATIONS

SPECIFIC AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN, BUT AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WITH
VARYING TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION. MORE INFORMATION WILL BECOME
KNOWN LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES BETTER SAMPLED
BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK.


* IMPACTS

TRAVEL MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.


* TEMPERATURES

BITTER COLD IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS SEEING HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW
FREEZING ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE. WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ARE LIKELY.

THE POSSIBILITY OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL EXISTS ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN ADDITION TO PLANNING
FOR POSSIBLE DELAYS AND ALTERNATE TRAVEL PLANS, PREPARATIONS
SHOULD ALSO BE MADE TO PROTECT THE THINGS MOST VULNERABLE DURING
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER. THESE INCLUDE PETS, PIPES, PLANTS AND
OF COURSE, PEOPLE.

Issuing Office: Dallas/Fort Worth

Source: National Weather Service

Issued: 4:22 AM CST, Sat Jan 13

[Ntxw]

Excellent trends overnight. Question though, is the Monday/Tuesday event mainly an overnight storm?Daughter is off school but I would have to work quite early Tuesday.

It will mostly be midnight to 6am ish event. 6 hour window or so give or take an hour or two and will be gone by noon. Maybe flurries from 6-9am

[Ralph's Weather]

Excellent trends overnight. Question though, is the Monday/Tuesday event mainly an overnight storm?Daughter is off school but I would have to work quite early Tuesday.

Right now it looks like mostly overnight though it will bring during the day Monday possibly and could persist into Tuesday.

[Ralph's Weather]

Euro Op also going towards what some of the most aggressive ENS members were showing for the 2nd system later next week...if the cold air can hold on through Friday, that could be a very potent winter storm for Texas as well

I know most of the models and forecasts had a pretty big warmup after Thursday, what's the chance that they're wrong and it stays cold?

Very possible. Though a couple day break next weekend is possible ahead of the next Arctic blast.

[stormlover2013]

Euro the same ?

[wxman22]

Euro looks the same just with slightly less precipitation across southeast Texas, the gfs actually shows more precipitation but it’s warmer. The freezing line never gets to i-10 even once the precip has moved out,while the Euro has the freezing line reaching I-10 as early as noon Tuesday, and drops temps into the mid to low 20s overnight Tuesday . Pretty big difference in temps considering how close we are to the event. Based on history I would go with the Euro for temps before the gfs, since the gfs tends to have a warm bias when it comes to shallow air.

[Portastorm]

Euro looks the same just with slightly less precipitation across southeast Texas, the gfs actually shows more precipitation but it’s warmer. The freezing line never gets to i-10 even once the precip has moved out,while the Euro has the freezing line reaching I-10 as early as noon Tuesday, and drops temps into the mid to low 20s overnight Tuesday . Pretty big difference in temps considering how close we are to the event. Based on history I would go with the Euro for temps before the gfs, since the gfs tends to have a warm bias when it comes to shallow air.

Nice summary. Similar issues in play to your west over here in south central Texas. For now, EWX believes the predominant forms of wintry precip for us will be freezing rain into sleet. I concur. I think snow here is more of an outlier this time.

[gpsnowman]

Euro looks the same just with slightly less precipitation across southeast Texas, the gfs actually shows more precipitation but it’s warmer. The freezing line never gets to i-10 even once the precip has moved out,while the Euro has the freezing line reaching I-10 as early as noon Tuesday, and drops temps into the mid to low 20s overnight Tuesday . Pretty big difference in temps considering how close we are to the event. Based on history I would go with the Euro for temps before the gfs, since the gfs tends to have a warm bias when it comes to shallow air.

Nice summary. Similar issues in play to your west over here in south central Texas. For now, EWX believes the predominant forms of wintry precip for us will be freezing rain into sleet. I concur. I think snow here is more of an outlier this time.

Yeah I am hoping up here in DFW the cold air profile changes quickly allowing the changeover to be rain to snow instead of ice. Already I am thinking many businesses and school districts are watching this closely, contemplating any closings. Tuesday could be a tricky day around Texas. Stay tuned, Monday will be a big news day for weather.

[opticsguy]

This is the coolest way to show the ensembles that I've seen so far