Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Gigem12]

Head says it fizzles out into nothing but dry cold
Heart says the moisture picks up and we get hammered by solid snow for 4-6 hours.

Worst case scenario is it waits until 9am or so, comes in the form of sleet, my school lets out early in garland, and my drive home to Fort Worth is treachorous and longer than the usual hour fifteen

[Ntxw]

FW buying it for DFW. Sort of. I emphasized the accompanying winds with precip. The ever so important 0z runs. Long nights for many I'm sure waiting for Euro runs.

M.L.King Day: Partly sunny, with a high near 53. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable.

Monday Night: A chance of rain, snow, and freezing rain. Cloudy, with a low around 24. North wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 33. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

[Haris]

My thoughts regarding our winter event Tuesday for TX:

Winter weather forecasting down here is a huge challenge. 3 days out still. That is far out when talking about winter precip for TX. We still have all of Saturday and Sunday model runs left. By Sunday evening is when we should start getting concerned or excited. Right now, I think local TV mets are too bullish on winter precip chances. I am going 30% for DFW , ATX and all other areas. Still lots of uncertainties and shifts can occur. But the potential no doubt is increasing. I'm just warning everyone that their many variables out there and timing is cruicial. Fingers crossed though! I love if this would verifiy. -Harry

[Ntxw]

TeamPlayersBlue mentioned bit earlier but it's always fascinating to me the Ouachita's Mountain's role in slowing down fronts along and east of I-45. As usual you can see the lag that holds it up along the Sabine River valley. Sometimes subtle but it's there especially during shallow air masses. When looking up north as the height rises with dense cold air moving you always see the slowing down in Arkansas, Southeast Oklahoma. While much more uniform moving down the plains.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Here is the last 5 run trends of the GFS for Monday evening

http://i64.tinypic.com/2j624yh.gif

Here it is for the thick of it in DFW overnight 5 runs

http://i68.tinypic.com/rat20z.gif

The more it trends north, the better the quality of moisture return it is seeing

I get the car with those!

[utweather]

12z GFS vs 18z

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_22.png[/img]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_21.png[/img]

Wow, looks like most of the country getting snow, except parts of Texas and New Mexico.

[TheProfessor]

I wish I could share some of the video I captured. We've had some near blizzard conditions here. Unfortunately my laptop is broken so I can't upload.

[Quixotic]

Cruised in from Memphis this morning where it went from a glaze and dusting to 2-3” during drive time to the airport. It was a beautiful thing seeing it snow that hard. It contrasted with the will to be home. Seriously, they postponed the flight because MEM ran out of deicing fluid but miraculously the pilot fought for us and changed their minds: we didn’t need deicing fluid. Got home only 30 minutes late. Bam. Got to see fat flakes too. As ice cube would say, “it was a good day”.

[gboudx]

As ice cube would say, “it was a good day”.

I hope this means that you didn’t even have to use your AK.

[Ntxw]

GFS is going even a little further north in 0z run. Subsequently could be slower with the front and warmer/more moisture. Snow into S Oklahoma while DFW is starting out with a mix and snow by Tuesday morning

[Ntxw]

CMC is 1-2" of snow with bullseye around Paris. 2-3" Eastplexers. Really cold.

Some snow for Austin and Houston too

[downsouthman1]

GFS is going even a little further north in 0z run. Subsequently could be slower with the front and warmer/more moisture. Snow into S Oklahoma while DFW is starting out with a mix and snow by Tuesday morning

As long as it's starting its run further north but still continuing its southerly expansion of the wintry precip shield, I'm all in. Let's spread the joy through the whole state.

[Ntxw]

GFS is going even a little further north in 0z run. Subsequently could be slower with the front and warmer/more moisture. Snow into S Oklahoma while DFW is starting out with a mix and snow by Tuesday morning

As long as it's starting its run further north but still continuing its southerly expansion of the wintry precip shield, I'm all in. Let's spread the joy through the whole state.

Temps will be cold enough along and north of I-20. It's a matter of transition time. What we are generally looking for in trends is wetter. As many have posted, you can probably shave a few degrees off the GFS OP

[Ntxw]

0z GFS is also more energy on Thursday, maybe some light precip this run for that period. It's still a relative mess and can't seem to figure out what happens with the S/W up north. Run to run has wild swings with what to do with the vorticity

[Quixotic]

Run to run has wild swings with what to do with the vorticity

This. Each frame looks like a random SW Plains low/SW. Scares me. Messy.

[wxman22]

The cmc looks more similar to the Euro now bringing wintry precipitation to the coastal counties. The Gfs looks too warm though imo...

[Haris]

The cmc looks more similar to the Euro now bringing wintry precipitation to the coastal counties. The Gfs looks too warm though imo...

GFS has been trending warmer. These small shifts will occur throughout Saturday and Sunday. Winter precip chance is medium-high. Specifics? Very low certainty. Ima stay awake for 00z euro.

[Cpv17]

The cmc looks more similar to the Euro now bringing wintry precipitation to the coastal counties. The Gfs looks too warm though imo...

GFS has been trending warmer. These small shifts will occur throughout Saturday and Sunday. Winter precip chance is medium-high. Specifics? Very low certainty. Ima stay awake for 00z euro.

Yeah this is the period where the GFS will start to warm up. Did the same thing at the beginning of the month.

[bubba hotep]

Euro holds steady, only minor changes through 84hrs

[orangeblood]

Euro Op also going towards what some of the most aggressive ENS members were showing for the 2nd system later next week...if the cold air can hold on through Friday, that could be a very potent winter storm for Texas as well