Texas Winter 2017-2018

[TeamPlayersBlue]

What are the dynamics behind the wintry weather for tuesday? I see an 850 low on the coast but thats it. Not really seeing it. Dont want to be bamboozled like the last time! I didnt think it would happen but i let the models convince me!

Something to note, i think the high will come into the Southern plains much quicker than the last NY big high we had. The GFS wants to hang onto it a bit too much in the N Plains i think.

Frontal upglide with some STJ noise. Set up you see more of the central and northern plains. Bubba notes it well. Race between how much moisture we see return and how quickly cold can undercut it

This front is what is referred to as an Ana Front. An ana front is a frontal boundary in which the main shield of clouds and precipitation is located behind the actual frontal boundary.This is because cold air located behind the front moves rapidly, pushing against the warm air out ahead of the front. Because cold air is more dense than warm air, the surging cold air causes the warm air to lift upward along the front - Upglide as Ntxw just mentioned. Therefore, clouds and precipitation that form end up inclined rearward with height due to the advancing cold air at the surface. And the more moisture we have out in front of this Ana Front, the better chances we have to see more precip

Here is a decent illustration

Beautiful. Exactly what i was looking for. So the dense air rushing in the main proponent here. So, for us Texas folk, we REALLY need the trough shift west for us. Especially SE Tx, the Ouachita shadow will be terrorizing us again.

Thanks so much guys!

[bubba hotep]

Pretty good support from the 12z GEFS for the operational run.

[South Texas Storms]

Pretty good support from the 12z GEFS for the operational run.

Sure does. The 12z GFS Ensemble mean has about 2 inches of snow from Austin to College Station. Not bad at all.

[Theepicman116]

I like the look of this!

[bubba hotep]

Nice trends on the models last night, this was one of the better Euro runs and closer to the 00z Tuesday run that produced a significant multi day winter wx event across the northern portion of Texas.

00z Tuesday



On that run, the WCAN high cuts off, the GL trough stays shallow and doesn't scour out the Gulf moisture. This leave moisture in place as the Pacific NW system undercuts the ridge and dives into Texas. This setup leaves moisture in place with cold air as the system approaches from the west to produce lift.

The 00z from last night trended back towards the 00z Tuesday run but it isn't all the way there yet.



The WCAN ridge has a better orientation than previous runs but the GL trough still digs too deep into the SE. This pushes a front down into the Gulf but there is still some moisture return as the Pacific NW system dives into Texas. We need that GL trough to trend shallower so that the trailing cold front doesn't dig as deep into the Gulf. It is looking like we will see good lift and cold air but what about moisture? wxman57 keeps harping on the fact that there is too much dry air, we need that moisture!

For comparison, 12z GFS and GEFS at the same time:

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro looks similar to the 0z run, maybe a touch colder with slightly more precip.

[Haris]

Hi everyone! New member here! But a long time weather geek and spotter situated West Austin TX. Thanks portastorm for getting me on this forum!

[South Texas Storms]

Hi everyone! New member here! But a long time weather geek and spotter situated West Austin TX. Thanks portastorm for getting me on this forum!

Welcome aboard, thanks for joining!

[wxman22]

Welcome! Haris, its a little early to talk about precipitation types, but fwiw the 12z Euro does show snow across north Texas, South Central/Central Texas and even all the way down to the Houston area. And it still brings wintry precipitation as far south as the coastal counties.

[Haris]

:uarrow: Welcome! Haris, its a little early to talk about precipitation types, but fwiw the 12z Euro does show snow across north Texas, South Central/Central Texas and even all the way down to the Houston area. And it still brings wintry precipitation as far south as the coastal counties.

Yea, been monitoring it for days. Some great agreement among the GEFS ensembles too. Minor shifts still very possible

[Ntxw]

Euro is all in very similar to GFS. DFW-Tyler-Shreveport with snow. Eastplexers are the winners in the DFW area, heavier south and east. Snow in Austin and CLL Tuesday morning and then Houston sleet and snow midday.

In the words of Oprah

"You get a car, you get car. you get a car! Everybody gets a car!"

[Ntxw]

Also to note Euro has it snowing at DFW in the mid to upper 20s with winds near 20mph and gusting higher. Going to be quite an arctic front scene if that comes to fruition. It will stick like glue. Not your gentle snow type, blowing powder. The stuff you see in the panhandle during blue northers.

[Portastorm]

Hi everyone! New member here! But a long time weather geek and spotter situated West Austin TX. Thanks portastorm for getting me on this forum!

Yay ... you made it!

I think y'all will enjoy Haris' contributions. He is passionate about weather just like the rest of us and already has a good, working knowledge about the models.

[bubba hotep]

And at D10, the Reload us under way.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Euro is all in very similar to GFS. DFW-Tyler-Shreveport with snow. Eastplexers are the winners in the DFW area, heavier south and east. Snow in Austin and CLL Tuesday morning and then Houston sleet and snow midday.

In the words of Oprah

"You get a car, you get car. you get a car! Everybody gets a car!"

Where’s my car?!

[Ntxw]

Euro is all in very similar to GFS. DFW-Tyler-Shreveport with snow. Eastplexers are the winners in the DFW area, heavier south and east. Snow in Austin and CLL Tuesday morning and then Houston sleet and snow midday.

In the words of Oprah

"You get a car, you get car. you get a car! Everybody gets a car!"

Where’s my car?!

Not much near and north of the Red River this run. But the trend has been further north with moisture over many runs. Maybe a few more runs and we can get you some . Ideally if we can get this isentropic lift to start in Oklahoma that would be best

There is still plenty of room to fine tune details. We just have to work out the larger scale pattern first.

[bubba hotep]

Also to note Euro has it snowing at DFW in the mid to upper 20s with winds near 20mph and gusting higher. Going to be quite an arctic front scene if that comes to fruition. It will stick like glue. Not your gentle snow type, blowing powder. The stuff you see in the panhandle during blue northers.

Can probably lean towards higher ratios and say that the 12z Euro is a widespread 1-2" of very fluffy snow for the metroplex with some higher totals and you head east. Lock it up!

[Brent]

I've been watching flurries all day here in Chicago, I'll be back in Dallas tomorrow night, bring on a real snowstorm

[Ntxw]

IF that Euro run verified, this winter would be locked as a legendary modern winter. Another snow for Austin? Check. Deep cold after some snow? Check. Snow all over the south? Check. We talk about this stuff every winter waiting for it to happen one day.

It's not easy getting it to snow in the Texas triangle all in one event. Being the boundary inside I-35, I-45, and I-10 Dallas-San Antonio-Houston.

[gpsnowman]

I've been watching flurries all day here in Chicago, I'll be back in Dallas tomorrow night, bring on a real snowstorm

Have you been watching any Tom Skilling reports on WGN?