Texas Winter 2017-2018

[ThunderSleetDreams]

40% chance of mix in the Houston forecast for Tuesday

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

In 3 2 1 watch this regenerate once it gets East of Dallas County!

Won't happen, the cold dry air is coming in fast, and basically drying out the column. But the 18Z has us getting snow in 384 hours, so there's that.

Well, if you can't trust the 384hr panel of the GFS then what can you trust?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_52.png

I’m flying to Vegas tonight and slapping this model down at the sports book with $1,000

[South Texas Storms]

40% chance of mix in the Houston forecast for Tuesday

Where? NWS has all rain for now.

But I do think we could see some light wintry precip in the Houston area early next week.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

40% chance of mix in the Houston forecast for Tuesday

Where? NWS has all rain for now.

But I do think we could see some light wintry precip in the Houston area early next week.

Brooks Garner from KHOU.

[wxman57]

40% chance of mix in the Houston forecast for Tuesday

Once again, there will be VERY little moisture available on Tuesday. The front should move through mostly dry, plus there may little support aloft for much precip. Air column aloft looks to be well above freezing in the lower 7000 ft or so on Tuesday. GFS has a very shallow layer of sub-freezing layer aloft as the precip ends. Wouldn't rule out a stray sleet pellet but that's about it for us.

[bubba hotep]

50+ mph gust being reported across portions of DFW tonight.

[South Texas Storms]

0z GFS and Canadian are more bullish on frozen precip chances across central and southeast TX early next week. They show more moisture lingering behind the next strong cold front leading to a risk of light snow and ice.

[Cpv17]

GFS and CMC are both fairly similar regarding precipitation for next Tuesday. Wintry mix in central TX and a cold rain south and east of there.

[missygirl810]

Think I will rent one of those machines that makes snow. Anybody want to party with me? LOL I WILL see snow in my yard this winter!!!!!

[orangeblood]

Models should begin to gain a better understanding of what to do with the mess in the Northeast Pacific over the next few runs...if we can get a big piece of energy to head due north into Alaska instead of Western Canada, it might allow the S/W energy to dig far enough south late next week for a decent storm system. Numerous Euro ENS members have been showing this lately. Hopefully, the trend is our friend!!

[wxman22]

0z Euro shows snow across north Texas and a wintry mix across south central and southeast Texas as far south as the coastal counties

[Cpv17]

Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t this some kind of low or trough undercutting the ridge for next Thursday and Friday with some cold air in place? I don’t have access to the paid site.

[TheProfessor]

Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t this some kind of low or trough undercutting the ridge for next Thursday and Friday with some cold air in place? I don’t have access to the paid site.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... a_us_8.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... a_us_8.png

I can look it up for you right quick.

[TheProfessor]

Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t this some kind of low or trough undercutting the ridge for next Thursday and Friday with some cold air in place? I don’t have access to the paid site.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... a_us_8.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... a_us_8.png

So taking a quick look the Euro does give some light snow to areas just west of the Metroplex. The temps are just a bit too warm for snow on this run in DFW, the Euro shows .06" rain falling.

The trough on the Euro looks like it's neutrally tilted, maybe even slightly positive. If that trough can go negative instead then there could be something.

[Cpv17]

Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t this some kind of low or trough undercutting the ridge for next Thursday and Friday with some cold air in place? I don’t have access to the paid site.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... a_us_8.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... a_us_8.png

So taking a quick look the Euro does give some light snow to areas just west of the Metroplex. The temps are just a bit too warm for snow on this run in DFW, the Euro shows .06" rain falling.

The trough on the Euro looks like it's neutrally tilted, maybe even slightly positive. If that trough can go negative instead then there could be something.

Thank you. Sounds like it bears watching. That’s still a ways out. Things can and probably will change.

[Lagreeneyes03]

It seems insane how dry it is in the DFW area...why is that? In the spring/fall a cold front usually means precip, and heavy at that. But in the winter it's the opposite.

[TheProfessor]

It seems insane how dry it is in the DFW area...why is that? In the spring/fall a cold front usually means precip, and heavy at that. But in the winter it's the opposite.

You're kind of answering your own question, in the winter it's usually colder so there is less moisture. In regards to this system the lack of rain is likely due to the systems progressive nature. Had the trough been more negatively tilted it would have drawn in moisture from the gulf(like it's doing now) and there would have likely been more precipitation.

[Cpv17]

Getting into the range of the NAM now for next week. It agrees with the Euro on a 1052mb high on the ND/MT border on Monday.

[Ntxw]

Euro does show a little snow from DFW to Tyler to Shreveport Mon night/Tuesday morning. Mix of precip from Austin to Houston Tuesday

[Ntxw]

Euro does show a little snow from DFW to Tyler to Shreveport Mon night/Tuesday morning. Mix of precip from Austin to Houston Tuesday

Actually Euro is very similar to GFS and CMC just a tad further north with precip. Looks like frontal upglide precip on all 3. Trending better on the globals back to snow/ice!

Regardless of snow, DFW will spend Tues-Thurs in the 30s and nights well below freezing which is most of next week. Quite chilly on all the guidance. Monday's cold front and chill will be colder than the current one