Texas Winter 2017-2018

[JayDT]

First time poster, long time lurker! Heavy snow falling for the past 10 minutes in Peaster, TX! Not sticking yet..

Welcome aboard! And that’s awesome! Hopefully it holds together into the DFW area

[orangeblood]

First time poster, long time lurker! Heavy snow falling for the past 10 minutes in Peaster, TX! Not sticking yet..

Thanks for the report, how are the roads?

[Yukon Cornelius]

Sunny and clear here. However, I guess the snow part of the earlier forecast was correct as I did see 1 flurry before it cleared.

[Ralph's Weather]

Even the most aggressive model does not show precip being as widespread as is currently occuring.

Haven't heard many reports that that precip is even reaching the ground. Roads appear fine where the band has moved through already

I am more confident the further east which is rare for N TX. The intensity will likely pick up as it moves east and the sun will be less of a factor as the day moves on. Not saying this is a guaranteed event at all, but trends today have been good. I am glad FTW NWS decided to be proactive in this event, SHV may end up caught completely off guard though.

[Ntxw]

First time poster, long time lurker! Heavy snow falling for the past 10 minutes in Peaster, TX! Not sticking yet..

Welcome!

Its great that you shared this to verify that it is reaching the ground. If that is the case then the metroplex would likely get a quick burst if it survives. Snow usually sticks at 33-32 on grassy areas. You'll need to be in the upper 20s to really effect roads

[Ralph's Weather]

First time poster, long time lurker! Heavy snow falling for the past 10 minutes in Peaster, TX! Not sticking yet..

Welcome, events like today are what makes this board so great. Thanks for the report and feel free to give your input anytime.

[wxman57]

There's a narrow band of precip passing through Mineral Wells (about 40 miles west of Fort Worth). Mineral Wells is reporting 38 deg and light rain. Looks like the lower levels are a bit warm for snow. There's a shallow layer of sub-freezing air between about 2500-4000 ft up, but above that is an above-freezing layer that goes up to 8 or 9 thousand feet up. This is a sleet profile or a cold rain profile. If most of the precip forms in the cold air layer, then it's possible that some snowflakes could form and reach the ground, but they'd melt pretty fast. I don't see any road issues for the DFW area this evening. The precip won't last very long and it won't be heavy.

[iorange55]

There's a narrow band of precip passing through Mineral Wells (about 40 miles west of Fort Worth). Mineral Wells is reporting 38 deg and light rain. Looks like the lower levels are a bit warm for snow. There's a shallow layer of sub-freezing air between about 2500-4000 ft up, but above that is an above-freezing layer that goes up to 8 or 9 thousand feet up. This is a sleet profile or a cold rain profile. If most of the precip forms in the cold air layer, then it's possible that some snowflakes could form and reach the ground, but they'd melt pretty fast. I don't see any road issues for the DFW area this evening. The precip won't last very long and it won't be heavy.

But what about the person reporting heavy snow in Parker county? I mean, I agree...roads will be fine, but I think it's clear snow is falling.

[Lptx]

Yup this is all snow, starting to accumulate on grassy areas. Decent size snowflakes too!

There are some small sleet pellets mixing in now too

[wxman57]

There's a narrow band of precip passing through Mineral Wells (about 40 miles west of Fort Worth). Mineral Wells is reporting 38 deg and light rain. Looks like the lower levels are a bit warm for snow. There's a shallow layer of sub-freezing air between about 2500-4000 ft up, but above that is an above-freezing layer that goes up to 8 or 9 thousand feet up. This is a sleet profile or a cold rain profile. If most of the precip forms in the cold air layer, then it's possible that some snowflakes could form and reach the ground, but they'd melt pretty fast. I don't see any road issues for the DFW area this evening. The precip won't last very long and it won't be heavy.

But what about the person reporting heavy snow in Parker county? I mean, I agree...roads will be fine, but I think it's clear snow is falling.

Yeah, I saw that. Peaster is about 20 miles or so NNE of Mineral Wells. It's possible that the air aloft is a little colder than the HRRR sounding indicates. Most of the precip IS forming in the sub-freezing layer, but it's well above freezing in the lower 1000-1500 ft. By the time the surface temps drop below freezing the precip will have long since ended. Might see a few snowflakes in the DFW area over the next 3-4 hours. Don't get your hopes up for a white landscape. If any snow does start to accumulate, it may melt in an hour or two. The precip band is only 10-15 miles wide, too. Won't last too long.

[iorange55]

There's a narrow band of precip passing through Mineral Wells (about 40 miles west of Fort Worth). Mineral Wells is reporting 38 deg and light rain. Looks like the lower levels are a bit warm for snow. There's a shallow layer of sub-freezing air between about 2500-4000 ft up, but above that is an above-freezing layer that goes up to 8 or 9 thousand feet up. This is a sleet profile or a cold rain profile. If most of the precip forms in the cold air layer, then it's possible that some snowflakes could form and reach the ground, but they'd melt pretty fast. I don't see any road issues for the DFW area this evening. The precip won't last very long and it won't be heavy.

But what about the person reporting heavy snow in Parker county? I mean, I agree...roads will be fine, but I think it's clear snow is falling.

Yeah, I saw that. Peaster is about 20 miles or so NNE of Mineral Wells. It's possible that the air aloft is a little colder than the HRRR sounding indicates. Most of the precip IS forming in the sub-freezing layer, but it's well above freezing in the lower 1000-1500 ft. By the time the surface temps drop below freezing the precip will have long since ended. Might see a few snowflakes in the DFW area over the next 3-4 hours. Don't get your hopes up for a white landscape.

I'd never get my hopes up for that. Winter has been canceled.

[bubba hotep]

[wxman57]

Looking at the precip on my workstation, I measure it at about 10-12 miles across. It's moving to the ESE at 15 mph. It's about 2 hours from downtown Fort Worth and about 3.5 to 4 hours from downtown Dallas. The precip will last around an hour as it moves through, more or less. The air dries out considerably behind this narrow line.

[Ralph's Weather]

Temps as the sun goes down will become less of an issue. I am a bit concerned that the convection this afternoon over E TX may steal some potential energy from the snow/sleet band tonight, but those storms have been primarily east of Highway 69. The sweet spot for cold enough temps and a more energetic atmosphere may be in the area bounded by I-35E, Red River, Highway 69 and I-20 ground temps are going to be an issue though with temps still in the 40s and 50s in this area right now.

[Portastorm]

More snow in south central Texas today! This time it was in Llano County where multiple reports (and video) showed a burst of snow for about 15 minutes. Apparently it occurred around 3 pm or so.

[Ntxw]

Temps as the sun goes down will become less of an issue. I am a bit concerned that the convection this afternoon over E TX may steal some potential energy from the snow/sleet band tonight, but those storms have been primarily east of Highway 69. The sweet spot for cold enough temps and a more energetic atmosphere may be in the area bounded by I-35E, Red River, Highway 69 and I-20 ground temps are going to be an issue though with temps still in the 40s and 50s in this area right now.

It is likely that shield to the east associated with surface low that is cutting off moisture

[wxman57]

More snow in south central Texas today! This time it was in Llano County where multiple reports (and video) showed a burst of snow for about 15 minutes. Apparently it occurred around 3 pm or so.

I'm trying to get some in the DFW area, but it's not easy. I figure you're taken care of for the winter, but they need more than a dusting that quickly melts. I'm not seeing anything with next week's front. Too dry for more than another flurry or two. I'm thinking the first week or two of February will bring a more significant event for NE TX.

[Ralph's Weather]

Temps as the sun goes down will become less of an issue. I am a bit concerned that the convection this afternoon over E TX may steal some potential energy from the snow/sleet band tonight, but those storms have been primarily east of Highway 69. The sweet spot for cold enough temps and a more energetic atmosphere may be in the area bounded by I-35E, Red River, Highway 69 and I-20 ground temps are going to be an issue though with temps still in the 40s and 50s in this area right now.

It is likely that shield to the east associated with surface low that is cutting of moisture

Def is a concern as it is more intense and widespread than expected, had some heavy rain and thunder earlier in Tyler. It well could steal any moisture this could have picked up from the Gulf. The HRRR does show a changeover on the backside near the LA border late tonight as the cold air catches the main precip shield.

[Ralph's Weather]

More snow in south central Texas today! This time it was in Llano County where multiple reports (and video) showed a burst of snow for about 15 minutes. Apparently it occurred around 3 pm or so.

I'm trying to get some in the DFW area, but it's not easy. I figure you're taken care of for the winter, but they need more than a dusting that quickly melts. I'm not seeing anything with next week's front. Too dry for more than another flurry or two. I'm thinking the first week or two of February will bring a more significant event for NE TX.

Late next week looks interesting but the mess of the Pacific will have to work out perfectly.

[davidiowx]

More snow in south central Texas today! This time it was in Llano County where multiple reports (and video) showed a burst of snow for about 15 minutes. Apparently it occurred around 3 pm or so.

I'm trying to get some in the DFW area, but it's not easy. I figure you're taken care of for the winter, but they need more than a dusting that quickly melts. I'm not seeing anything with next week's front. Too dry for more than another flurry or two. I'm thinking the first week or two of February will bring a more significant event for NE TX.

Sooo SE Texas is done with winter precip this year? I need more than the dusting we got in early December! Give me 2-3" and you can bring back the warmth!