Texas Winter 2017-2018

[orangeblood]

Anyone concerned that the storm has disappeared for the most part on 06z models and doesn’t appear on the HRRR?

Shhhhh! We don't talk of such things......

00z WRF-AWR2 has it (I have no clue if that is good or not lol)

HRRR starting to sniff the band out but for the RAP and 06Z NAM to have very little/if any now should give everyone pause....Bust Advisory to replace WWA ?

[bubba hotep]

Shhhhh! We don't talk of such things......

00z WRF-AWR2 has it (I have no clue if that is good or not lol)

HRRR starting to sniff the band out but for the RAP and 06Z NAM to have very little/if any now should give everyone pause....Bust Advisory to replace WWA ?

Also, basically no support from the SREF.

[orangeblood]

00z WRF-AWR2 has it (I have no clue if that is good or not lol)

HRRR starting to sniff the band out but for the RAP and 06Z NAM to have very little/if any now should give everyone pause....Bust Advisory to replace WWA ?

Also, basically no support from the SREF.

Yeah, really surprised by the WWA issued by FTW NWS...don't think I've ever seen that with very minimal model support!

[orangeblood]

For next week, I really like the trends on both the Euro and GFS ENS...cold and active pattern setting up for next week, the potential is there for shallow Arctic air to hold on while one of these S/Ws dig through the southern plains. Euro members are very "wintry" next week

[gpsnowman]

Evan Andrews on Fox 4 this morning voiced his wonder as to why Dallas County was included in the WWA.

[Ralph's Weather]

I think the WWA is in response to them being burned by this setup many times in the past, but the lack of model support gives you pause. Could just be a few flurries but if a convective band takes hold someone could get over 3 inches. Lose lose sceanario really for them.

[wxman22]

For next week, I really like the trends on both the Euro and GFS ENS...cold and active pattern setting up for next week, the potential is there for shallow Arctic air to hold on while one of these S/Ws dig through the southern plains. Euro members are very "wintry" next week

Yes, the Euro shows a snow/wintry mix Tuesday across central and southeast Texas, as far south as the i-10 corridor...

[Cpv17]

For next week, I really like the trends on both the Euro and GFS ENS...cold and active pattern setting up for next week, the potential is there for shallow Arctic air to hold on while one of these S/Ws dig through the southern plains. Euro members are very "wintry" next week

Do you think we can expect a westward shift with the models for next week? Getting sick and tired of everything passing east of us almost the entire winter. It has to change at some point doesn’t it?

[utweather]

I think the WWA is in response to them being burned by this setup many times in the past, but the lack of model support gives you pause. Could just be a few flurries but if a convective band takes hold someone could get over 3 inches. Lose lose sceanario really for them.

I'll take a meteorologist over a model any day. Didn't y'all read wxman57 posts about models yesterday. I'll take my own eyesight over a model projection as well. Anyway, good luck with the snow up north today.

[CaptinCrunch]

A strong cold front will send temperatures plummeting into the 30s by this afternoon with gusty north winds 20 to 30 mph. There will be a chance for some snow bands to develop mainly from the Metroplex northward to the Red River. Some minor accumulations of 1/2 to 1 inch will be possible mainly on grassy surfaces. The strongest band could produce an isolated 2" amount. The precipitation will not last long and should end by this evening.


A WIND ADVISORY is in effect for all of North Texas through this evening. North winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts in excess of 40 mph will be possible. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is in effect from 2 pm to 8 pm for areas from the Metroplex north and west to the Red River. Some minor snow accumulations of 1/2 to 1 inch will be possible. Isolated amounts to 2" may occur.

[weatherdude1108]

Gunna be interesting driving to the northwest towards Cedar Park from work later this afternoon. Isolated 45mph gusts? That's TS force.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
335 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-111745-
/O.NEW.KEWX.WI.Y.0001.180111T1600Z-180112T0600Z/
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
Including the cities of Llano, Burnet, Georgetown, Del Rio,
Rocksprings, Leakey, Kerrville, Bandera, Fredericksburg, Boerne,
Blanco, San Marcos, Austin, Bastrop, Giddings, Bracketville,
Uvalde, Hondo, San Antonio, New Braunfels, Seguin, Lockhart,
La Grange, Eagle Pass, Crystal City, Pearsall, Pleasanton,
Floresville, Karnes City, Gonzales, Cuero, Halletsville,
and Carrizo Springs
335 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
CST TONIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued a
Wind Advisory, which is in effect from 10 AM this morning to
midnight CST tonight.

* TIMING...Late morning through evening.

* WINDS...North to Northwest 20 to 30 MPH with gusts to 40 MPH,
isolated 45 MPH.

* IMPACTS...Lightweight and loose objects that are not secured may
easily be blown around. High profile and light weight vehicles
may experience difficultly traveling on area roads

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult...especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

[bubba hotep]

HRRR starting to sniff the band out but for the RAP and 06Z NAM to have very little/if any now should give everyone pause....Bust Advisory to replace WWA ?

Also, basically no support from the SREF.

Yeah, really surprised by the WWA issued by FTW NWS...don't think I've ever seen that with very minimal model support!

I guess they are heavily favoring climo for this setup and weighing in the fact that the models struggle with convective snow bands.

[OKMet83]

Amen! Trouble brewing next week.. matter of time before operational runs come around!

For next week, I really like the trends on both the Euro and GFS ENS...cold and active pattern setting up for next week, the potential is there for shallow Arctic air to hold on while one of these S/Ws dig through the southern plains. Euro members are very "wintry" next week

[South Texas Storms]

For next week, I really like the trends on both the Euro and GFS ENS...cold and active pattern setting up for next week, the potential is there for shallow Arctic air to hold on while one of these S/Ws dig through the southern plains. Euro members are very "wintry" next week

Do you think we can expect a westward shift with the models for next week? Getting sick and tired of everything passing east of us almost the entire winter. It has to change at some point doesn’t it?

Don't forget the snow event we had just 1 month ago! It's already been a great winter in south TX. Any other wintry events are just icing on the cake

[Cpv17]

For next week, I really like the trends on both the Euro and GFS ENS...cold and active pattern setting up for next week, the potential is there for shallow Arctic air to hold on while one of these S/Ws dig through the southern plains. Euro members are very "wintry" next week

Do you think we can expect a westward shift with the models for next week? Getting sick and tired of everything passing east of us almost the entire winter. It has to change at some point doesn’t it?

Don't forget the snow event we had just 1 month ago! It's already been a great winter in south TX. Any other wintry events are just icing on the cake

Yes lol that’s why I said almost the entire winter. That was just the third time in my life I’ve ever seen snow accumulate where I live in almost 30 years. 04, 09, and 17. All 3 events happening in December.

[Ralph's Weather]

Days like today in NTX are when meteorologists prove their value. If you rely soley on model output for surface conditions today appears to be a non event. Though climo for this setup paints a different picture with past events having produced over 6 inches locally in similar setups.

[Ntxw]

For next week, I really like the trends on both the Euro and GFS ENS...cold and active pattern setting up for next week, the potential is there for shallow Arctic air to hold on while one of these S/Ws dig through the southern plains. Euro members are very "wintry" next week

Do you think we can expect a westward shift with the models for next week? Getting sick and tired of everything passing east of us almost the entire winter. It has to change at some point doesn’t it?

Pattern is going western trough, eastern ridge after 15th. Million dollar question is can we keep the EPO. The year where it happened with warm MJO Phases 3/4/5 in Jan is 1978

[orangeblood]

Days like today in NTX are when meteorologists prove their value. If you rely soley on model output for surface conditions today appears to be a non event. Though climo for this setup paints a different picture with past events having produced over 6 inches locally in similar setups.

Possibly but I've rarely ever seen a WWA posted for something that has very minimal model support, if any. Very strange! It appears they went off one run of the NAM model, which was the 0Z run last night. Snow amounts on that run correlate almost exactly where the WWA is outlined

[South Texas Storms]

Do you think we can expect a westward shift with the models for next week? Getting sick and tired of everything passing east of us almost the entire winter. It has to change at some point doesn’t it?

Don't forget the snow event we had just 1 month ago! It's already been a great winter in south TX. Any other wintry events are just icing on the cake

Yes lol that’s why I said almost the entire winter. That was just the third time in my life I’ve ever seen snow accumulate where I live in almost 30 years. 04, 09, and 17. All 3 events happening in December.

Haha yeah I know what you mean though. I'm thirsty for more too. And it's been quite dry lately...sure could use a widespread rain event across the state.

[Ralph's Weather]

Don't forget the snow event we had just 1 month ago! It's already been a great winter in south TX. Any other wintry events are just icing on the cake

Yes lol that’s why I said almost the entire winter. That was just the third time in my life I’ve ever seen snow accumulate where I live in almost 30 years. 04, 09, and 17. All 3 events happening in December.

Haha yeah I know what you mean though. I'm thirsty for more too. And it's been quite dry lately...sure could use a widespread rain event across the state.

I am very thankful for the inch plus of rain I got Sunday night. That was some of the heaviest rain, maybe the heaviest, I have ever experienced. And the lightning/thunder was also very intense, it terrified my dog and son.