#5131 Postby Tammie » Thu Jan 11, 2018 4:52 am
000
FXUS64 KFWD 110927
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
327 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018
.SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/
An upper trough moving east into the Plains will be the primary
weather concern across North Texas for the next 24 hours. A strong
shortwave embedded within the main trough can be seen on the
latest satellite loop lifting northeast across Oklahoma and
Kansas. This feature will help push a strong cold front south
across the Red River this morning and through the rest of the
forecast area during the day. A modified arctic airmass will surge
south through the region behind the boundary, meaning rapidly
falling temperatures can be expected with the passage of the
front. High temperatures will occur this morning for areas north
of I-20, with temperatures falling into the lower and mid 30s
early to mid afternoon. South of I-20, highs will occur early
afternoon, with temps falling into the 30s late afternoon and
early this evening.
Strong pressure rises behind the front will lead to windy
conditions, with post-frontal wind speeds sustained in the 20 to
30 MPH range, and gusting to 40 MPH. The wind advisory which was
issued yesterday will remain in place through this evening. We
have extended the advisory to include all counties of North and
Central Texas.
The axis of the upper level trough will pass overhead this
afternoon immediately behind the cold front. Most of the moisture
and lift associated with the system will remain east of the
forecast area, and any thunderstorms should in turn remain to our
east. However, an area of lift in the vicinity of the upper
trough axis should be enough to produce precipitation as it moves
from west to east across the region. A cold column of air will
exist in and near the upper trough axis, which when combined with
the cold surface layer, will result in precipitation likely being
in the form of snow. So, the current thinking is that areas that
receive precipitation, particularly northwest of a line from Paris
to Hillsboro to Eastland, may initially see light rain, but it
should change over to sleet or snow as temperatures fall during
the afternoon hours.
The GFS along with several of the most recent hi-resolution
models indicate a good signal for a convective snow band to
develop across the northwestern counties late this morning, and
move east across the northern half of the forecast area along with
the upper trough this afternoon. This would potentially lead to a
brief round of moderate to heavy snow this afternoon. The area of
concern is from the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex north to the Red
River, with the highest potential of accumulating snow being from
the Denton-Decatur areas north to the Gainesville-Bowie areas.
A decision has been made to go ahead with a Winter Weather
Advisory for these areas for the 2 PM to 8 PM timeframe. Due to
the strong winds, accumulations may be difficult to come by, but
half-inch to one-inch amounts look possible in the advisory area,
with isolated one to two inch amounts not out of the question.
Precipitation will come to a fast end this evening as subsidence
spreads in on the back side of the upper trough. A cold night is
in store area-wide tonight with lows in the 20s for just about
all locations within the forecast area.
30
&&
1 likes
Tammie - Sherman TX
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or 
