Texas Winter 2017-2018

[OKMet83]

Very skeptical of the models past Sat/Sun.... I think most area nws offices are also if you read between the lines of carefully worded area forecast discussions... I’m by no means saying it will happen just too much inconsistency let’s give it a few more days..

[gpsnowman]

Very skeptical of the models past Sat/Sun.... I think most area nws offices are also if you read between the lines of carefully worded area forecast discussions... I’m by no means saying it will happen just too much inconsistency let’s give it a few more days..

Agreed. Just looked at the NWS Fort Worth discussion and they mentioned moisture returning with the potential of freezing rain for early next week, albeit a small one. Perhaps the models could bring back snow for some region of Texas. We shall see.

[aperson]

I tend to agree with the analysis here that we need to wait to see what happens with the north pacific slop gyre before models resolve downstream effects for next week:

https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/ ... 0251019264

Also someone up-thread mentioned that MJO hasn't updated in a while. This source has daily updates: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I tend to agree with the analysis here that we need to wait to see what happens with the north pacific slop gyre before models resolve downstream effects for next week:

https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/ ... 0251019264

Also someone up-thread mentioned that MJO hasn't updated in a while. This source has daily updates: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

Thanks! The NOAA site wasnt updating. Stuck in phase 2 it seems.

[Ntxw]

Cold front is somewhere in the northern plains. It will push through DFW around Noon tomorrow and we fall from the 50s. By 6pm should be close to freezing



KAUS about two hours later and Houston a few hours after that by 6pm or so.

[starsfan65]

Cold front is somewhere in the northern plains. It will push through DFW around Noon tomorrow and we fall from the 50s. By 6pm should be close to freezing

http://i68.tinypic.com/vhdi11.jpg

KAUS about two hours later and Houston a few hours after that by 6pm or so.

When we will be in the 30's in DFW tomorrow?

[Ntxw]

Cold front is somewhere in the northern plains. It will push through DFW around Noon tomorrow and we fall from the 50s. By 6pm should be close to freezing

http://i68.tinypic.com/vhdi11.jpg

KAUS about two hours later and Houston a few hours after that by 6pm or so.

When we will be in the 30's in DFW tomorrow?

2-4pm according to the NAM

[gpsnowman]

Has the NAM shown any more southern expanse of wintry precip for tomorrow?

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: Has the NAM shown any more southern expanse of wintry precip for tomorrow?

Looks like Euro on 18z a bit less impressive than 12z. Small band in far western and northwestern counties. 0z NAM just started to run

[Ralph's Weather]

The HRRR will be petty interesting late tonight into tomorrow.

[gpsnowman]

:uarrow: Has the NAM shown any more southern expanse of wintry precip for tomorrow?

Looks like Euro on 18z a bit less impressive than 12z. Small band in far western and northwestern counties. 0z NAM just started to run

Thanks. If I see another microscopic flurry storm again I might find the highest cliff in DFW and jump. Then again DFW has no cliffs.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: Has the NAM shown any more southern expanse of wintry precip for tomorrow?

Looks like Euro on 18z a bit less impressive than 12z. Small band in far western and northwestern counties. 0z NAM just started to run

Thanks. If I see another microscopic flurry storm again I might find the highest cliff in DFW and jump. Then again DFW has no cliffs.

It's not common for cold, below normal winter months (as is going on) to go iceless/snowless at DFW. Think we will have our shot yet

[Ralph's Weather]

Some storms going in far western N TX where there was some sun this afternoon. Much more than indicated by the models earlier today. They will likely die off as the air over NTX is pretty stable from daytime cloud cover.

[Texas Snow]

:uarrow: Has the NAM shown any more southern expanse of wintry precip for tomorrow?

Looks like Euro on 18z a bit less impressive than 12z. Small band in far western and northwestern counties. 0z NAM just started to run

Thanks. If I see another microscopic flurry storm again I might find the highest cliff in DFW and jump. Then again DFW has no cliffs.

You could always drive a little west to Possum Kingdom Lake...

Wait, hold on. Maybe a better idea is for it just to snow like crazy tomorrow afternoon and over perform!

[gpsnowman]

Hmmmmm Possum Kingdom. Excellent cliff jumping there. Yes I do hope tomorrow does over perform because early next week looks iffy at best.

[Ntxw]

0z NAM since this is all we're interested about . Valid for 0z tomorrow or 6pm

[TheProfessor]

It's looking like my storm is about to go poof, dang progressive atmosphere

[Texas Snow]

[bubba hotep]

00z 3k NAM





Interesting, b/w the bands of snow it shows sleet, so the QPF field is a bit more smoothed out than what it is showing for snow.

[TheProfessor]

00z 3k NAM

https://i.pinimg.com/736x/30/9d/b2/309d ... --meme.jpg

http://models.weatherbell.com/hires/201 ... las_43.png

Interesting, b/w the bands of snow it shows sleet, so the QPF field is a bit more smoothed out than what it is showing for snow.

I too hope the 3k NAM is correct lol.