Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Ntxw]

To add the forecast and idea of DFW may push 70 tomorrow (Weds) some days ago, poofed. About 10 degrees colder than what it looked like.

[gboudx]

I saw you guys posting about a potential wintry storm next week. Today on NBC5, met Rick Mitchell showed a CPC forecast of above average temps next week instead.

[EnnisTx]

let's hope the CMC verifies and brings a nice snow across Noth Texas.

[Brent]

Saw some snow on the ground in Chicago today it hasnt all melted yet

[bubba hotep]

00z GFS takes a step towards the Euro but is still more progressive with the over all pattern. However, this is a big improvement over 18z

[Cpv17]

00z GFS takes a step towards the Euro but is still more progressive with the over all pattern. However, this is a big improvement over 18z
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_26.png

Definitely a step in the right direction from the 18z.

[hamburgerman7070]

00z GFS takes a step towards the Euro but is still more progressive with the over all pattern. However, this is a big improvement over 18z

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_26.png

Bubba, I'm no expert like yourself, but like u said, the pattern is progressive. Trough appears still too far east. Euro is the outlier unfortunately unless things dramatically change. Seems like the euro has lost it's accuracy compared to years ago before upgrade.

[Cpv17]

00z GFS reloads Canada with cold air and a near 1050mb high at the end of the run.

[Cpv17]

00z GFS takes a step towards the Euro but is still more progressive with the over all pattern. However, this is a big improvement over 18z

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_26.png

Bubba, I'm no expert like yourself, but like u said, the pattern is progressive. Trough appears still too far east. Euro is the outlier unfortunately unless things dramatically change. Seems like the euro has lost it's accuracy compared to years ago before upgrade.

I believe the PNA is to blame. The east coast is having a dream winter season.

[hamburgerman7070]

You are right but it's supposed to drop but how can we get cold and stormy with pna negative? I'm confused.

[Cpv17]

Bubba, I'm no expert like yourself, but like u said, the pattern is progressive. Trough appears still too far east. Euro is the outlier unfortunately unless things dramatically change. Seems like the euro has lost it's accuracy compared to years ago before upgrade.

I believe the PNA is to blame. The east coast is having a dream winter season.

You are right but it's supposed to drop but how can we get cold and stormy with pna negative? I'm confused.

Yeah I don’t have the knowledge to answer that question lol but I think even if the PNA was neutral we’d have a much better chance at getting in on some fun.

[South Texas Storms]

Interesting run of the Euro. Shows several days of snow and ice across the northern half of the state next week.

[Ralph's Weather]

Bubba, I'm no expert like yourself, but like u said, the pattern is progressive. Trough appears still too far east. Euro is the outlier unfortunately unless things dramatically change. Seems like the euro has lost it's accuracy compared to years ago before upgrade.

I believe the PNA is to blame. The east coast is having a dream winter season.

You are right but it's supposed to drop but how can we get cold and stormy with pna negative? I'm confused.

A positive PNA means a ridge over the western US with NW flow over our area and an eastern trough.
A neutral PNA puts the the ridge near the west coast putting us at the base of the trough giving us a better chance at storms.
A negative PNA puts the ridge out in the Pacific with troughing over the West and ridging over the East. This puts us in the area where storms will make their move NE. If we have Arctic blocking like this year then the cold would still make it down here though it would not be constant. It would put TX in the position that FL has been in.

[gpsnowman]

To add the forecast and idea of DFW may push 70 tomorrow (Weds) some days ago, poofed. About 10 degrees colder than what it looked like.

Yep, from 70 to 59 in a couple days. Amazing what a thick cloud deck(or lack thereof) can do to a temperature forecast.

[Ntxw]

Gfs shows snow in Oklahoma tomorrow night's storm and latest NAM maybe flurries in NTX

[Ntxw]

Interesting run of the Euro. Shows several days of snow and ice across the northern half of the state next week.

Yeah from Tues, Weds, Thurs off and on ice and snow at DFW

[bubba hotep]

German ICON model

[Ntxw]

German ICON model

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_21.png

Yes! There is a lot of lift with such a strong system! Curious to get into hi res short term guidance. There is a chance this one may sneak up on us

[Ralph's Weather]

German ICON model

NW flow strong shortwave, I'd almost be surprised if it doesn't produce flurries in the year of the NTX flurry.

[Ntxw]

To add the forecast and idea of DFW may push 70 tomorrow (Weds) some days ago, poofed. About 10 degrees colder than what it looked like.

Yep, from 70 to 59 in a couple days. Amazing what a thick cloud deck(or lack thereof) can do to a temperature forecast.

It may not seem a lot 55-60 (forecast is now mid 50s) but that is about normal. What it does is cut the daily departure from +15-20F on the highs down to 0-5F. Based on the coming forecast January is looking to end below normal overall! Question now is can we get a sub 40F monthly average. Big cold departures to begin the month has set up all of this.

Why is sub 40 important? It usually means you have a shot at top 10 coldest month for that month, considerable in any winter month