Texas Winter 2017-2018

[DFWLady]

Welcome to the forum, DFWLady. When you look at weather forecasts online or see it on a news station, you don't really know what is being reported. For example, the free forecasts you get from Accuweather are almost certainly pure raw GFS (American) model data driven. There is no meteorologist looking at your forecast and determining which model or combination of models would be best to use. On TV, assuming it's a meteorologist reporting the weather forecast, you won't know what you're getting either. The meteorologist may be parroting the local National Weather Service forecast, or he/she may be coming up with his/her own forecast based upon all of the model guidance.

It's the job of a meteorologist to examine all of the model data and current analysis and come up with a good estimate of what might actually happen. Here on this forum, we discuss many possible scenarios for what might happen early next week, for example. However, with so much model variance and even run-to-run variance, we meteorologists have very little confidence in the long-range forecast. For now, I think it's safe to say that another cold front will arrive in Texas next Tuesday. There is at least the possibility that this front may bring some winter-type precipitation with it, but I would not be comfortable in forecasting winter precipitation just yet (meaning that's what is most likely going to happen).

Thank you so much for explaining! I understand now and it makes complete sense! I had no idea the GFS was the American lol I read you all speak about it, but had no idea which model you were talking about! I appreciate the knowledge! Lol well we can hope for some winter weather! From reading this post, I am pretty sure you like the heat anyways?! But, I'm also counting on you to bring DFW some winter weather at some point between now and mid-March lol!

Thanks again!

If the models (GFS/Euro) are still forecasting a winter weather event by Friday or Saturday for next week then the news will probably start to mention it becoming a possibility because they will have more confidence that it may actually happen. At this range (still a week out) they tend to go with the conservative approach and adjust accordingly the closer it gets.

Ok! Thank you so much for your reply! I have so much to learn, but I'm getting there!

[Ralph's Weather]

The weekend front is another to watch for flurries. Hopefully next week ends the year of the flurry for northern TX.

[Cpv17]

18z GFS has some light snow for NTX on Friday.

[Ntxw]

Wxman57 said it best. The forums is a good tool to get different views of model output. There is a ton of data out there that is hard to interpret and can take years to learn it all but luckily we have smart folks and mets like wxman57, South Texas Storms who shares their personal time to help us gather this information! Weather segments on tv and professional mets don't always do this or just no time to, or not freely available.

We are not always right on here, but we do a good job IMO telling what may come weather wise or changes to be had in all seasons.

[Portastorm]

Hey everyone, new weather enthusiast here lol I've following this website for a long time but never really got into looking at models or comparing them until very recently. Can I ask all of you a question please?! Not to sound stupid, but how is it possible that news stations and websites like accuweather are so much different than what is discussed on here? Is it them being cautious, because its easier to put out a 24 hour notice of snow/sleet/frozen rain, or are they looking at completely different models then whats on here? I'm just curious! Thank you in advance for any knowledge you can bestow upon me!

I looked at the US, Euro and Canadian models (15 inches... wooooow that'd be fun ) I hope somehow part of it is true lol I'd love some winter weather in DFW! I'm holding on to hope, but not getting my hopes up lol! Great learning experience though!

Welcome DFWLady! Please ... don't you or anyone else reading this ever hesitate to ask a question. Or multiple questions. This forum is meant to be a friendly place where anyone interested in weather, regardless of knowledge level, can ask questions and learn. All of us are learning daily here. Your questions (or those from any other member) are always welcomed! Many of us regulars get so locked up in our discussions that we forget that folks reading may not know what we're talking about. Some people here say that regularly about me, for example. LOL. But that has more to do with me not making much sense as compared to me referencing an acronym soup of weather models and terms.

Fortunately for you, our very best (wxman57) answered your questions quickly. Hope you get some snow in the days ahead!

[South Texas Storms]

18z GFS has some light snow for NTX on Friday.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... scus_9.png

The GFS is actually showing that light snow occurring on Thursday afternoon. 0z Friday is Thursday 6pm CST. So that panel is the time between 12pm and 6pm CST Thursday.

[Cpv17]

18z GFS has some light snow for NTX on Friday.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... scus_9.png

The GFS is actually showing that light snow occurring on Thursday afternoon. 0z Friday is Thursday 6pm CST. So that panel is the time between 12pm and 6pm CST Thursday.

Oh okay I gotcha! Thank you

[South Texas Storms]

18z GFS has some light snow for NTX on Friday.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... scus_9.png

The GFS is actually showing that light snow occurring on Thursday afternoon. 0z Friday is Thursday 6pm CST. So that panel is the time between 12pm and 6pm CST Thursday.

Oh okay I gotcha! Thank you

No problem. Zulu time can be a bit tricky to remember. Just know that during Standard time (Winter months), Central time is 6 hours behind Zulu time (0z Friday is 1800 CST Thursday). During Daylight Savings time (Spring, Summer, and Fall), Central time is 5 hours behind Zulu time (0z Friday is 1900 CDT Thursday).

I hope this makes sense!

[Cpv17]

18z GFS has taken away our fun for next week. Hardly any precip other than a few light showers and nothing really that cold either. East of TX gets hammered again with big time cold. Nothing new there.

[Cpv17]

The GFS is actually showing that light snow occurring on Thursday afternoon. 0z Friday is Thursday 6pm CST. So that panel is the time between 12pm and 6pm CST Thursday.

Oh okay I gotcha! Thank you

No problem. Zulu time can be a bit tricky to remember. Just know that during Standard time (Winter months), Central time is 6 hours behind Zulu time (0z Friday is 1800 CST Thursday). During Daylight Savings time (Spring, Summer, and Fall), Central time is 5 hours behind Zulu time (0z Friday is 1900 CDT Thursday).

I hope this makes sense!

It sure does. Thanks for that. I always wondered about it.

[bubba hotep]

The weekend front is another to watch for flurries. Hopefully next week ends the year of the flurry for northern TX.

18z undercuts the ridge with the Pacific jet and things don't get as amped leaving Texas in zonal flow with no winter storm. Not too worried about the GFS at this range, esp. after the 12z EPS showing about 1/2 the members with some version of the storm. There is also a subtle southern stream s/w on the Euro that could be a big player, I'm guessing the EPS members showing a bigger storm are phasing that with the main trough or some other kind of witchcraft.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Thank you so much for explaining! I understand now and it makes complete sense! I had no idea the GFS was the American lol I read you all speak about it, but had no idea which model you were talking about! I appreciate the knowledge! Lol well we can hope for some winter weather! From reading this post, I am pretty sure you like the heat anyways?! But, I'm also counting on you to bring DFW some winter weather at some point between now and mid-March lol!

Thanks again!

Heat? I despise temperatures above freezing! However, having lived south of I-10 for 60 years I've learned to tolerate temperatures above freezing. I'll get you some snow before this winter ends. We're only about 3 weeks into winter, by the way.

Oh lol I was mistaken then! Well for your sake I hope we get another cold snap and it stays cold for awhile! Yep I know winter is just starting! Thank goodness because I love the cold as well!

Don't be fooled. His love of cold is only temporary. He is our resident heat miser who has offered to embrace the cold for this winter in exchange for a long, hot summer in 2018. His forecasting is generally top notch, but he loves the heat and is very bad at hiding it.

[Ntxw]

Clouds held on today and DFW maxed in the mid 50s about 5F short of forecasts. Not a huge deal but a blow to +anomalies. Tomorrow warmest day of the week, lets see if clouds keep it down again

[dhweather]

The weekend front is another to watch for flurries. Hopefully next week ends the year of the flurry for northern TX.

18z undercuts the ridge with the Pacific jet and things don't get as amped leaving Texas in zonal flow with no winter storm. Not too worried about the GFS at this range, esp. after the 12z EPS showing about 1/2 the members with some version of the storm. There is also a subtle southern stream s/w on the Euro that could be a big player, I'm guessing the EPS members showing a bigger storm are phasing that with the main trough or some other kind of witchcraft.

Which has been the case a good part of this Winter. Things are not looking good for frozen precip this year, again.

[EnnisTx]

Thank you so much for explaining! I understand now and it makes complete sense! I had no idea the GFS was the American lol I read you all speak about it, but had no idea which model you were talking about! I appreciate the knowledge! Lol well we can hope for some winter weather! From reading this post, I am pretty sure you like the heat anyways?! But, I'm also counting on you to bring DFW some winter weather at some point between now and mid-March lol!

Thanks again!

Heat? I despise temperatures above freezing! However, having lived south of I-10 for 60 years I've learned to tolerate temperatures above freezing. I'll get you some snow before this winter ends. We're only about 3 weeks into winter, by the way.

[Ntxw]

Current look at temps in North America



Again worth emphasizing what GFS had a week ago for this same time period. Verification time



Night and day in Northwest Canada

[downsouthman1]

Current look at temps in North America

http://i65.tinypic.com/4lfzwy.png

Again worth emphasizing what GFS had a week ago for this same time period. Verification time

http://i63.tinypic.com/2hgweu0.png

Night and day in Northwest Canada

It had the cold air much further southeast than it actually is.

[hamburgerman7070]

Current look at temps in North America

http://i65.tinypic.com/4lfzwy.png

Again worth emphasizing what GFS had a week ago for this same time period. Verification time

http://i63.tinypic.com/2hgweu0.png
Night and day in Northwest Canada

Ntxw, this may be a stupid question, but what is the euro seeing that gfs isn't for next week? I know it's still early, but was curious

[Ntxw]

Current look at temps in North America

http://i65.tinypic.com/4lfzwy.png

Again worth emphasizing what GFS had a week ago for this same time period. Verification time

http://i63.tinypic.com/2hgweu0.png
Night and day in Northwest Canada

Ntxw, this may be a stupid question, but what is the euro seeing that gfs isn't for next week? I know it's still early, but was curious

Bubba and orangeblood has it pretty well explaining better than I could about the differences with how the two handle the Pacific for next week. If you're talking about the storm this weekend it's just a matter of how each guidance winds up the storm and develops surface low. That's not easy to predict until you get into real time especially in a set up like this. Shifts of 50 miles can make a huge difference in the track of the low locally in your area. We're still discussing a weekend system that isn't even in the lower 48 yet. It's quite possible the system may produce much more qpf than modeled, or it may not.

[Ntxw]

Current look at temps in North America

http://i65.tinypic.com/4lfzwy.png

Again worth emphasizing what GFS had a week ago for this same time period. Verification time

http://i63.tinypic.com/2hgweu0.png

Night and day in Northwest Canada

It had the cold air much further southeast than it actually is.

It's upper pattern was not terrible for being 7 days out. The key here is that when looking at source region, the model vastly underestimated the surface cold air that crossed over the pole. That has been the theme so far this winter.