Texas Winter 2017-2018

[orangeblood]

12Z Euro similar to Canadian at 500mb, slower/more tightly wound with Pacific System...lets see if surface should translate

Edit: trending more towards the Canadian at surface as well...not quite as aggressive but overall good trend

[wxman22]

12z Euro shows a winter storm for a big portion of the state has wintry precip from north Texas into central/southcentral Texas and the northern half of southeast Texas looks similar to the Canadian

[Ntxw]

Yes Euro trended well getting to the CMC. Expand the precip shield more and in business

[stormlover2013]

Images?

[wxman57]

Images?

Euro has a band of 2-4 inches of snow across NE TX next Tuesday. Between the GFS, Canadian, and Euro, I'd say you can expect anywhere from no winter precip (or perhaps some sleet) to 15+ inches of snow next Tuesday. Looking at the projected 500mb patterns of the GFS, EC, and the Canadian - they're all pretty close together. I don't think the pattern looks like one that would support very much snow in Texas. Certainly, I think the Canadian is way overdoing it. The amount of moisture available and the depth of the sub-freezing airmass are two important variables that the models will have difficulty resolving so far out. We'll have to wait another 3-4 days to have any confidence in the forecast for next Tuesday. Maybe by Friday or Saturday...

[wxman22]

Euro keeps most of the snow in north Texas, with a wintry mix mainly south of the i-20 corridor.

[stormlover2013]

only if the models were good 7 days out lol, would be awesome

[bubba hotep]

Images?

Euro has a band of 2-4 inches of snow across NE TX next Tuesday. Between the GFS, Canadian, and Euro, I'd say you can expect anywhere from no winter precip to 15+ inches of snow next Tuesday. We'll have to wait another 3-4 days to have any confidence in the forecast for next Tuesday. Maybe by Friday or Saturday...

http://wxman57.com/images/EC.JPG

I like those odds!

Seriously though, the Euro trended back towards the 12z run from yesterday. The changes at H5 aren't huge but significant enough to result in vastly different sensible weather. The fast flow and Pacific wavebreaking will make this extremely hard on the models. It appears that the energy associated with this system hasn't even moved into the Pacific yet. It looks to ride the nose of the jet steak and set off a huge break into ridge across WCAN. My confidence in this system just got destroyed by typing that... Lots of room for error in this setup, esp in the wrong direction.

[Ntxw]

Meanwhile Amarillo is sitting up in the Panhandle with still just a trace. Not a lot of hope for snow up there

[orangeblood]

I like those odds!

Seriously though, the Euro trended back towards the 12z run from yesterday. The changes at H5 aren't huge but significant enough to result in vastly different sensible weather. The fast flow and Pacific wavebreaking will make this extremely hard on the models. It appears that the energy associated with this system hasn't even moved into the Pacific yet. It looks to ride the nose of the jet steak and set off a huge break into ridge across WCAN. My confidence in this system just got destroyed by typing that... Lots of room for error in this setup, esp in the wrong direction.

Or the right direction, still room for this to trend slower/further west allowing more moisture to spill to the north across the state and more lift if trough can dig further southwest

Much more support now from Euro Ensembles...what's even more interesting is the Euro Control Run looks a lot like the Canadian slipping another S/W underneath the Western Canadian ridge, showing another potential winter storm next Thursday (following Tuesday's system)

[TheProfessor]

It would awesome if the Eastern Midwest and Parts of the Metroplex got to end their WSW droughts within a week of each other. It has been far too long(for areas that don't receive lake effect).

[Ralph's Weather]

We have not hit 65 since 12/21 and it does not appear in the cards for the next few weeks. We could easily go a month with temps not reaching 65.

[DFWLady]

Hey everyone, new weather enthusiast here lol I've following this website for a long time but never really got into looking at models or comparing them until very recently. Can I ask all of you a question please?! Not to sound stupid, but how is it possible that news stations and websites like accuweather are so much different than what is discussed on here? Is it them being cautious, because its easier to put out a 24 hour notice of snow/sleet/frozen rain, or are they looking at completely different models then whats on here? I'm just curious! Thank you in advance for any knowledge you can bestow upon me!

I looked at the US, Euro and Canadian models (15 inches... wooooow that'd be fun ) I hope somehow part of it is true lol I'd love some winter weather in DFW! I'm holding on to hope, but not getting my hopes up lol! Great learning experience though!

[hamburgerman7070]

Hey guys. Could that system next week trend more robust or less exciting? I know bubba mentioned about w Canada ridge so I wasn't sure. I'm, if trough is enough west, I believe we be good

[wxman57]

Hey everyone, new weather enthusiast here lol I've following this website for a long time but never really got into looking at models or comparing them until very recently. Can I ask all of you a question please?! Not to sound stupid, but how is it possible that news stations and websites like accuweather are so much different than what is discussed on here? Is it them being cautious, because its easier to put out a 24 hour notice of snow/sleet/frozen rain, or are they looking at completely different models then whats on here? I'm just curious! Thank you in advance for any knowledge you can bestow upon me!

I looked at the US, Euro and Canadian models (15 inches... wooooow that'd be fun ) I hope somehow part of it is true lol I'd love some winter weather in DFW! I'm holding on to hope, but not getting my hopes up lol! Great learning experience though!

Welcome to the forum, DFWLady. When you look at weather forecasts online or see it on a news station, you don't really know what is being reported. For example, the free forecasts you get from Accuweather are almost certainly pure raw GFS (American) model data driven. There is no meteorologist looking at your forecast and determining which model or combination of models would be best to use. On TV, assuming it's a meteorologist reporting the weather forecast, you won't know what you're getting either. The meteorologist may be parroting the local National Weather Service forecast, or he/she may be coming up with his/her own forecast based upon all of the model guidance.

It's the job of a meteorologist to examine all of the model data and current analysis and come up with a good estimate of what might actually happen. Here on this forum, we discuss many possible scenarios for what might happen early next week, for example. However, with so much model variance and even run-to-run variance, we meteorologists have very little confidence in the long-range forecast. For now, I think it's safe to say that another cold front will arrive in Texas next Tuesday. There is at least the possibility that this front may bring some winter-type precipitation with it, but I would not be comfortable in forecasting winter precipitation just yet (meaning that's what is most likely going to happen).

[DFWLady]

Hey everyone, new weather enthusiast here lol I've following this website for a long time but never really got into looking at models or comparing them until very recently. Can I ask all of you a question please?! Not to sound stupid, but how is it possible that news stations and websites like accuweather are so much different than what is discussed on here? Is it them being cautious, because its easier to put out a 24 hour notice of snow/sleet/frozen rain, or are they looking at completely different models then whats on here? I'm just curious! Thank you in advance for any knowledge you can bestow upon me!

I looked at the US, Euro and Canadian models (15 inches... wooooow that'd be fun ) I hope somehow part of it is true lol I'd love some winter weather in DFW! I'm holding on to hope, but not getting my hopes up lol! Great learning experience though!

Welcome to the forum, DFWLady. When you look at weather forecasts online or see it on a news station, you don't really know what is being reported. For example, the free forecasts you get from Accuweather are almost certainly pure raw GFS (American) model data driven. There is no meteorologist looking at your forecast and determining which model or combination of models would be best to use. On TV, assuming it's a meteorologist reporting the weather forecast, you won't know what you're getting either. The meteorologist may be parroting the local National Weather Service forecast, or he/she may be coming up with his/her own forecast based upon all of the model guidance.

It's the job of a meteorologist to examine all of the model data and current analysis and come up with a good estimate of what might actually happen. Here on this forum, we discuss many possible scenarios for what might happen early next week, for example. However, with so much model variance and even run-to-run variance, we meteorologists have very little confidence in the long-range forecast. For now, I think it's safe to say that another cold front will arrive in Texas next Tuesday. There is at least the possibility that this front may bring some winter-type precipitation with it, but I would not be comfortable in forecasting winter precipitation just yet (meaning that's what is most likely going to happen).

Thank you so much for explaining! I understand now and it makes complete sense! I had no idea the GFS was the American lol I read you all speak about it, but had no idea which model you were talking about! I appreciate the knowledge! Lol well we can hope for some winter weather! From reading this post, I am pretty sure you like the heat anyways?! But, I'm also counting on you to bring DFW some winter weather at some point between now and mid-March lol!

Thanks again!

[Cpv17]

Hey everyone, new weather enthusiast here lol I've following this website for a long time but never really got into looking at models or comparing them until very recently. Can I ask all of you a question please?! Not to sound stupid, but how is it possible that news stations and websites like accuweather are so much different than what is discussed on here? Is it them being cautious, because its easier to put out a 24 hour notice of snow/sleet/frozen rain, or are they looking at completely different models then whats on here? I'm just curious! Thank you in advance for any knowledge you can bestow upon me!

I looked at the US, Euro and Canadian models (15 inches... wooooow that'd be fun ) I hope somehow part of it is true lol I'd love some winter weather in DFW! I'm holding on to hope, but not getting my hopes up lol! Great learning experience though!

Welcome to the forum, DFWLady. When you look at weather forecasts online or see it on a news station, you don't really know what is being reported. For example, the free forecasts you get from Accuweather are almost certainly pure raw GFS (American) model data driven. There is no meteorologist looking at your forecast and determining which model or combination of models would be best to use. On TV, assuming it's a meteorologist reporting the weather forecast, you won't know what you're getting either. The meteorologist may be parroting the local National Weather Service forecast, or he/she may be coming up with his/her own forecast based upon all of the model guidance.

It's the job of a meteorologist to examine all of the model data and current analysis and come up with a good estimate of what might actually happen. Here on this forum, we discuss many possible scenarios for what might happen early next week, for example. However, with so much model variance and even run-to-run variance, we meteorologists have very little confidence in the long-range forecast. For now, I think it's safe to say that another cold front will arrive in Texas next Tuesday. There is at least the possibility that this front may bring some winter-type precipitation with it, but I would not be comfortable in forecasting winter precipitation just yet (meaning that's what is most likely going to happen).

Thank you so much for explaining! I understand now and it makes complete sense! I had no idea the GFS was the American lol I read you all speak about it, but had no idea which model you were talking about! I appreciate the knowledge! Lol well we can hope for some winter weather! From reading this post, I am pretty sure you like the heat anyways?! But, I'm also counting on you to bring DFW some winter weather at some point between now and mid-March lol!

Thanks again!

If the models (GFS/Euro) are still forecasting a winter weather event by Friday or Saturday for next week then the news will probably start to mention it becoming a possibility because they will have more confidence that it may actually happen. At this range (still a week out) they tend to go with the conservative approach and adjust accordingly the closer it gets.

[Ralph's Weather]

I have mentioned that there is an outside chance for flurries Thursday evening and all of a sudden the 18Z GFS looks interesting to that effect. It hangs a bit of energy on the backside to generate flurries in northwest N TX. The more energy that hangs up the better chance we have at beating the dry slot behind the surface low.

[wxman57]

Thank you so much for explaining! I understand now and it makes complete sense! I had no idea the GFS was the American lol I read you all speak about it, but had no idea which model you were talking about! I appreciate the knowledge! Lol well we can hope for some winter weather! From reading this post, I am pretty sure you like the heat anyways?! But, I'm also counting on you to bring DFW some winter weather at some point between now and mid-March lol!

Thanks again!

Heat? I despise temperatures above freezing! However, having lived south of I-10 for 60 years I've learned to tolerate temperatures above freezing. I'll get you some snow before this winter ends. We're only about 3 weeks into winter, by the way.

[DFWLady]

Thank you so much for explaining! I understand now and it makes complete sense! I had no idea the GFS was the American lol I read you all speak about it, but had no idea which model you were talking about! I appreciate the knowledge! Lol well we can hope for some winter weather! From reading this post, I am pretty sure you like the heat anyways?! But, I'm also counting on you to bring DFW some winter weather at some point between now and mid-March lol!

Thanks again!

Heat? I despise temperatures above freezing! However, having lived south of I-10 for 60 years I've learned to tolerate temperatures above freezing. I'll get you some snow before this winter ends. We're only about 3 weeks into winter, by the way.

Oh lol I was mistaken then! Well for your sake I hope we get another cold snap and it stays cold for awhile! Yep I know winter is just starting! Thank goodness because I love the cold as well!