Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Portastorm]

Big changes showing up in the 12z models with our trough in the Pacific. We'll see if it makes a difference in regards to our possible cold weather in the long range.

I see that ... the trough doesn't look as strong and deep and, thus, the NE Pacific ridge is not as pumped as it was in previous runs. Yeah, that could definitely moderate the wintry extreme scenarios of the last few GFS runs for us. Let's see how this one unfolds.

[spencer817]

Big changes showing up in the 12z models with our trough in the Pacific. We'll see if it makes a difference in regards to our possible cold weather in the long range.

I see that ... the trough doesn't look as strong and deep and, thus, the NE Pacific ridge is not as pumped as it was in previous runs. Yeah, that could definitely moderate the wintry extreme scenarios of the last few GFS runs for us. Let's see how this one unfolds.

The storm doesnt even look to come this way now, of course....

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Ridge just takes place later... Hour 204, it starts its ramp up into Alaska.

Front through the panhandle at 216.

Yeah, there it is at 216... difference in this operational is the look of the North Atlantic and SE

[spencer817]

Ridge just takes place later... Hour 204, it starts its ramp up into Alaska.

Front through the panhandle at 216.

I feel like either this is a rogue run, or all the others were just messing with our emotions.

[weatherdude1108]

If this kind of cold verifies, we are going to have a lot of pipe-busting issues on our hands.
My outside hose bib freezes even with a faucet cover and towels. It is within the outside wall of the house. Looks like I may need to let it drip the whole time while I am out of town on Christmas to the 27th.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Ridge just takes place later... Hour 204, it starts its ramp up into Alaska.

Front through the panhandle at 216.

I feel like either this is a rogue run, or all the others were just messing with our emotions.

Actually its shaping up to be a lot like the previous runs. Timing is going to change run to run.

[South Texas Storms]

Trough is much more progressive like the Canadian on the 12z GFS. Don't think we'll see much in the way of frozen precip chances with the storm system in about 10 days.

[ronyan]

EPO forecast to be strongly negative along with the PNA.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Front through Dallas and Houston by evening time on Friday... same timing as before.

[orangeblood]

Trough is much more progressive like the Canadian on the 12z GFS. Don't think we'll see much in the way of frozen precip chances with the storm system in about 10 days.

Because of one operational run 10 days out ???

[South Texas Storms]

Still chilly, but warmer compared to previous runs. No freeze down to the coast. GFS shows some light snow possible in Houston before the precip ends next Saturday morning.

No leftover energy hanging back in the SW US, so no widespread ice this run.

[South Texas Storms]

Trough is much more progressive like the Canadian on the 12z GFS. Don't think we'll see much in the way of frozen precip chances with the storm system in about 10 days.

Because of one operational run 10 days out ???

I never said that. Just saying this run of the GFS wouldn't show much in the way of ice or snow here in the extended. The threat is still there based on the ensembles and many previous runs.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Trough is much more progressive like the Canadian on the 12z GFS. Don't think we'll see much in the way of frozen precip chances with the storm system in about 10 days.

Because of one operational run 10 days out ???

People love to hedge with their emotions.

Actually, this run doesn't bother me at all. Favorable UA pattern is still there and a SE ridge forming on the 23rd/24th.

[orangeblood]

Trough is much more progressive like the Canadian on the 12z GFS. Don't think we'll see much in the way of frozen precip chances with the storm system in about 10 days.

Because of one operational run 10 days out ???

I never said that. Just saying this run of the GFS wouldn't show much in the way of ice or snow here in the extended. The threat is still there based on the ensembles and many previous runs.

Oh gotcha, it came across as a much more definitive statement/conclusion

[sphelps8681]

EPO forecast to be strongly negative along with the PNA.

What does that mean??? Sorry but some of us don't understand what the heck you just said.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Christmas Morning

[Theepicman116]

Edit: I take that back! We do have ice and a bit of snow.

And the freezing rain.

[South Texas Storms]

Because of one operational run 10 days out ???

I never said that. Just saying this run of the GFS wouldn't show much in the way of ice or snow here in the extended. The threat is still there based on the ensembles and many previous runs.

Oh gotcha, it came across as a much more definitive statement/conclusion

Yeah my bad. I should've said that was based on this run of the GFS. Not that I agree with it.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

EPO forecast to be strongly negative along with the PNA.

What does that mean??? Sorry but some of us don't understand what the heck you just said.

A strongly negative EPO is a key ingredient for Texas seeing cold air.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I’m glad there isn’t any ice on this run but sad that there isn’t any snow. Hopefully the next run will produce some snow!

Highly doubtful we would see any snow out of this. At best, sleet.