Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Brent]

lol was just going to post that... same day last year DFW went from 70s to 20s One of the few days last year it was winter.

Apparently quite a few GFS ensembles are interesting in that mid-month timeframe

0z Euro nothing really earth shattering, is a little cooler Wednesday/Thursday with only a few degrees difference between morning and afternoon, Friday morning gets down to 34 at DFW. This is the best shot at an official freeze this upcoming week. Another dramatic cold snap goes east of us at the end of the run.

[Yukon Cornelius]

I noticed something pretty crazy this weekend that ive never noticed before. All of the mesquites in this area lost their leaves awhile back in one of the early freezes or frosts. I guess with it being as warm as its been, they are already putting on new growth and new leaves. Its pretty strange considering the old adage around here is that winter is officially over when the mesquites start putting on new leaves...

[gboudx]

I noticed something pretty crazy this weekend that ive never noticed before. All of the mesquites in this area lost their leaves awhile back in one of the early freezes or frosts. I guess with it being as warm as its been, they are already putting on new growth and new leaves. Its pretty strange considering the old adage around here is that winter is officially over when the mesquites start putting on new leaves...

I've learned about mesquite trees, but now sure if this is applicable to all varieties, is that they are semi-evergreen. They're not like most other non-evergreen trees which lose their leaves based on the amount of sunlight. It's not unusual for mesquites to hold onto their leaves during warm winters, or even produce new buds during a warm winter. I haven't been able to find what the temperature threshold is for invigorating new growth though.

[Ntxw]

Yeah, I've never been a fan of using trees/plants as an indicator. Scientifically they behave based on weather that has already occured, and sometimes that kind of weather may persist based on consistency so it may seem like predictive value but not always the case.

[Yukon Cornelius]

I noticed something pretty crazy this weekend that ive never noticed before. All of the mesquites in this area lost their leaves awhile back in one of the early freezes or frosts. I guess with it being as warm as its been, they are already putting on new growth and new leaves. Its pretty strange considering the old adage around here is that winter is officially over when the mesquites start putting on new leaves...

I've learned about mesquite trees, but now sure if this is applicable to all varieties, is that they are semi-evergreen. They're not like most other non-evergreen trees which lose their leaves based on the amount of sunlight. It's not unusual for mesquites to hold onto their leaves during warm winters, or even produce new buds during a warm winter. I haven't been able to find what the temperature threshold is for invigorating new growth though.

It would be interesting to find what that threshold is. Seeing it blew my mind. Even with last winter being so warm, I never noticed it. My first thought was, "this isn't a good sign for winter".

[TeamPlayersBlue]

My resident squirrel has been very active specifically the last couple weeks.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Yeah, I've never been a fan of using trees/plants as an indicator. Scientifically they behave based on weather that has already occured, and sometimes that kind of weather may persist based on consistency so it may seem like predictive value but not always the case.

I do however feel that insects are animals are a pretty good indicator. The insects have been showing that winter will occur one of these days and will probably be cold. With animals I always look at the cattle's and horse's coats. On colder years they have always put on a really thick coat. Last year their coats didn't change much from the summer type coat and this year is less of a coat than last year.

[CaptinCrunch]

[Ntxw]

Yeah, I've never been a fan of using trees/plants as an indicator. Scientifically they behave based on weather that has already occured, and sometimes that kind of weather may persist based on consistency so it may seem like predictive value but not always the case.

I do however feel that insects are animals are a pretty good indicator. The insects have been showing that winter will occur one of these days and will probably be cold. With animals I always look at the cattle's and horse's coats. On colder years they have always put on a really thick coat. Last year their coats didn't change much from the summer type coat and this year is less of a coat than last year.

Couldn't it just be that the cooler/warmer Falls (sometimes translates to winters) be the precursors to their coats? We've had some pretty mild falls that may have given their bodies indication to not yield such heavy coats. But I'm not sure with animals as I have no experience with them.

I do think there is some skill using fauna/flora for ideas because it can work. Using consistency and prior season's behavior truncated does roll forward often.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Yeah, I've never been a fan of using trees/plants as an indicator. Scientifically they behave based on weather that has already occured, and sometimes that kind of weather may persist based on consistency so it may seem like predictive value but not always the case.

I do however feel that insects are animals are a pretty good indicator. The insects have been showing that winter will occur one of these days and will probably be cold. With animals I always look at the cattle's and horse's coats. On colder years they have always put on a really thick coat. Last year their coats didn't change much from the summer type coat and this year is less of a coat than last year.

Couldn't it just be that the cooler/warmer Falls (sometimes translates to winters) be the precursors to their coats? We've had some pretty mild falls that may have given their bodies indication to not yield such heavy coats. But I'm not sure with animals as I have no experience with them.

I do know that is has been studied, especially with race horses. Historically throughout all of the years I have been around livestock everyday, by December they should have their winter coats fully in. Its definitely a noticeable change that I haven't noticed this year. Also disheartening, I guide coyote and feral hogs hunts as well, both the coyotes and feral hogs are also absent of a thick winter coat.

[Ntxw]

Central Texas folks might want to look out for some sleet sometime Wednesday mixed with light rain. NAM has surface temps in the upper 30s/low 40s with 850s near 0C as precip falls overhead.

It will be quite a contrast where further north in NTX and OKlahoma temps in the 50s while further south is colder beneath the precip shield and upper energy in Austin and Houston.

[bubba hotep]

Euro EPS has been trending ugly with the Pacific jet in the long range. Looks like a warm up just in time for Christmas.

[wxman57]

Yeah, I've never been a fan of using trees/plants as an indicator. Scientifically they behave based on weather that has already occured, and sometimes that kind of weather may persist based on consistency so it may seem like predictive value but not always the case.

I do however feel that insects are animals are a pretty good indicator. The insects have been showing that winter will occur one of these days and will probably be cold. With animals I always look at the cattle's and horse's coats. On colder years they have always put on a really thick coat. Last year their coats didn't change much from the summer type coat and this year is less of a coat than last year.

Couldn't it just be that the cooler/warmer Falls (sometimes translates to winters) be the precursors to their coats? We've had some pretty mild falls that may have given their bodies indication to not yield such heavy coats. But I'm not sure with animals as I have no experience with them.

I do think there is some skill using fauna/flora for ideas because it can work. Using consistency and prior season's behavior truncated does roll forward often.

I've always used pecan trees to signal the end of winter. Pecan trees are always the last to leaf out in the spring.

[spencer817]

Nothing promising on the 12z so far.

[Yukon Cornelius]

I do however feel that insects are animals are a pretty good indicator. The insects have been showing that winter will occur one of these days and will probably be cold. With animals I always look at the cattle's and horse's coats. On colder years they have always put on a really thick coat. Last year their coats didn't change much from the summer type coat and this year is less of a coat than last year.

Couldn't it just be that the cooler/warmer Falls (sometimes translates to winters) be the precursors to their coats? We've had some pretty mild falls that may have given their bodies indication to not yield such heavy coats. But I'm not sure with animals as I have no experience with them.

I do think there is some skill using fauna/flora for ideas because it can work. Using consistency and prior season's behavior truncated does roll forward often.

I've always used pecan trees to signal the end of winter. Pecan trees are always the last to leaf out in the spring.

It wouldn't surprise me if they don't start leafing out soon!

[CaptinCrunch]

Pecan trees never leaf out till March regardless of the Winter. There are 7 pecan trees on my street and last year my Ash was completely leafed out by end of Feburary alond with several trees in the neighborhood except for the Pecans, they didn't start till mid March.

[Tireman4]

Not sure if Srain has posted his forecast for this week yet, but here is Jeff's



Strong cold front will move across the region on Tuesday…period of below normal temperatures.

Short wave responsible for the active weather on Sunday afternoon has exited to the east while another wave is currently approaching from the west. Low level cloud deck has mixed out over much of the region which will allow for rapid heating this morning and may need to bump high temperatures for today into the lower 80’s. Another weak short wave will approach the area this afternoon and with increasing warm air advection expect to see additional showers and thunderstorms develop. Activity should remain more scattered compared to Sunday as the surface warm front is becoming diffuse and difficult to locate over the area which will help reduce a sustained lifting source.

Strong cold front will surge down the plains tonight and across TX early Tuesday. Frontal timing has been changing with model runs, but expect a morning passage at most locations. High temperatures will be before the frontal passage with many areas reaching the 70’s then falling rapidly into the 50’s with the onset of strong cold air advection. A line of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front, but the fast forward motion of the boundary should mitigate any significant rainfall totals and instability is on the low side so not expecting any severe weather.

Cold polar air mass pours into the region Tuesday night near the surface with a warm and moist air mass gliding up and over the surface cold dome due to continued SW/WSW flow aloft. This will result in a period of cold light rain chances Tuesday night-early Thursday. Forecast soundings continue to show a significant layer of dry air in the surface to about 800mb level which will cut down on rainfall production. It appears a stronger disturbance will eject across the region on Wednesday afternoon into the overnight hours. During this period some of the soundings show a brief moistening of the dry near surface layer which could allow a better potential for light rain to reach the ground. Combination of cold air advection and evaporative cooling will likely limit temperatures to the 40’s for highs on Wednesday. Forecast soundings for Wednesday night show the above freezing layer nearly up to 600mb so think sleet is a remote possibility, but cannot rule out some locally enhanced evaporative cooling in any of the stronger cells that might support some sleet. Think best chances will be across the Hill Country into our NW/W counties where the temp profile is a little cooler.

Additional surges of cold and drier air arrive on Thursday and again on Saturday preventing any significant warm up. Clouds should begin to clear on Thursday as the dry surface layer deepens and helps to erode the moisture over the region. Additionally the flow aloft will gradually veer to NW which will help to dry out the upper levels of the atmosphere. Clear skies and light winds will result in cold morning lows Friday and Saturday, but highs will actually warm over Wednesday values into the upper 50’s to near 60 into the weekend.

[Brent]

Euro EPS has been trending ugly with the Pacific jet in the long range. Looks like a warm up just in time for Christmas.

Of course it is



The mid-month period is the only sort of hopeful period I see

[orangeblood]

Euro EPS has been trending ugly with the Pacific jet in the long range. Looks like a warm up just in time for Christmas.

Please explain...I'm seeing nothing too substantial in the form of a pattern change in the long range - West Coast ridge blockade with Eastern Trough. In fact, there are some signs that some Gulf of Alaska energy could break through the top end of the ridge and develop quite a storm in the southern plains mid-month - nothing in the form of a warm-up though!

[Ralph's Weather]

I am hoping for over a half inch of rain from the line tonight.The next few days will be pretty chilly. A small chance for light rain or a few sleet pellets south of I-20 on Wed though most of the accumulating stuff will stay in West Texas and into the Hill Country. East Texas should get a few freezes late this week. After that all eyes will shift to the long advertised mid month possible system.