2017 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

This MJO and Kelvin means business. GFS has a somewhat large monsoon gyre like system in December? It has 2 systems affecting the Marianas.

[euro6208]

18Z GFS continues with a Guam Typhoon...

[euro6208]

A surface trough embedded within moderate to fresh trade winds north
of a near-equatorial trough is going to generate period showers and
a few thunderstorms near Yap today, Koror tonight and Saturday. As
the near-equatorial trough begins to lift northward on Sunday,
converging surface winds near the trough axis will increase shower
activity near both locations. Things should become wetter early next
week as the twin circulations currently southwest of Chuuk and
southwest of Pohnpei approach from the southeast. There is a chance
these circulations will merge into one and become better organized
when arriving at far western Micronesia next week. If so, gusty winds
and choppy seas are possible.

[euro6208]

NAVGEM now on board with development.

00Z



06Z



CMC

[euro6208]

While EURO continues to be quiet, the GFS has multiple lows in a large monsoonal like system. Eventually the eastern most wins out. You can see what is left of 94W near Yap and Palau almost 10 days after formation.

94W THREAD

[mrbagyo]

Faguzzi, fugazzi, it's a whazzie, it's a whoozie.. it's a.. fairy dust. It doesn't exist. It's never landed. It's no matter, it's not on the elemental chart. not real! LOL

[1900hurricane]

Heh, that looks fun to track. Something tells me it's not going to verify though.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I have my doubts about 94W, it's simply scrambled eggs! Interesting to see GFS and CMC insist on a strong typhoon in the mid-range to long-range with the GFS shifting, showing a pretty noticeable trend. Let's see if this verifies. My gut tells me something big could happen this month or early next year.

[euro6208]

I have my doubts about 94W, it's simply scrambled eggs! Interesting to see GFS and CMC insist on a strong typhoon in the mid-range to long-range with the GFS shifting, showing a pretty noticeable trend. Let's see if this verifies. My gut tells me something big could happen this month or early next year.

Viola! 94W dissipates and GFS caves in to EURO showing no development at all. Applause for EURO. Fail for GFS.

[euro6208]

EURO for the first time shows the Guam system but keeps it weak.



GFS continues to be robust with it. It had it peaking sub 900mb but still a cat 5 barreling through the Islands. We've seen this before.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

GFS 18z run faster building ridge would spell problems maybe for PI.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

170KTS @850mb. on the run.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

ECMWF now with a 981 mb typhoon strength system at TAU 240 with it turning east while getting pulled by a trough though a ridge rapidly begins developing. Too early to jump into conclusions thus far

[euro6208]

95W THREAD

Invest now up for Micronesia system.

[euro6208]

EURO and GFS has more possible TC's developing from the Malay Peninsula to southeast of Guam.

[mrbagyo]

[doomhaMwx]

http://www.cma.gov.cn/en2014/news/News/ ... 57038.html
"On November 16, China's most advanced research vessel, named Ke Xue (Science), completed its 2017 scientific expedition in the western Pacific Ocean. To understand the formation and evolution of clouds in low latitude area of the western Pacific Ocean and get insights into their macro- and micro property, MOC conducted the cloud observation in the western Pacific Ocean with millimeter-wave cloud radar and all sky imager onboard Ke Xue. The meteorological group released four meteorological drifting buoys as a way of collecting marine weather data. During this scientific mission, Ke Xue went through three typhoons, namely, Super Typhoon Lan, Typhoon Saola and Haikui."

[mrbagyo]

That area south of Guam is starting to flare once again.
96W?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS and ECMWF still show a weak system intensifying over the South China Sea instead

[euro6208]

Back to back strong phantom systems but nothing materializes.