Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Yukon Cornelius]

This is just an observation and backed by no science at all. Once social media, local mets and big box forecasting outlets such as The Weather Channel and Accuweather really start hyping a pattern change for Texas, ive come to realize that's all it usually turns out to be is hype. I really hope that isn't the case this time. I love cold weather but I have to admit, 60s for highs and 30s for lows sure has felt nice.

The hypes are often associated with one or two OP model runs. The good forecasters and knowledgeable people you will find picks out from the ensembles and significant pattern change well before much media sensation and let the operational guidance go to them.

I agree 100%

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Oh hey guys, ive been in the other thread. Models are all over something happening in Dec. Getting pumped.

[Ralph's Weather]

Except for a few runs yesterday the models and ensembles have been pretty consistent with the big Eastern trough (really more of a PV split) with a piece of it digging into the SW. Though the main upper trough is over the east there is a big surface high over the Rockies which should direct more surface cold down the Plains than models show right now. These pieces add up to me believing that there is a decent threat of snow for a large chunk of NM and TX and good rain for anywhere that does not get quite cold enough next Wed and this precip could well last later into the week depending on how fast the SW low shifts east and if it closes off. We are now less than a week out from this threat.

[spencer817]

12z has it 5-10 degrees cooler on this run on the first blast, shows that this is far from set in stone.

[Ralph's Weather]

12Z GFS shows a good snow for SW TX and the Hill Country, getting close to Austin, on Wednesday. It shows the moisture sagging south too fast for snows E of I-35. It does seem to be starting to see the strength of the cold though I think it is still a bit warm at the surface.

[spencer817]

12Z GFS shows a good snow for SW TX and the Hill Country, getting close to Austin, on Wednesday. It shows the moisture sagging south too fast for snows E of I-35. It does seem to be starting to see the strength of the cold though I think it is still a bit warm at the surface.

You think future runs will be colder than this one?

[spencer817]

Second front much more promising than the past 2 runs, where most of it was east of us until very long range.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

12Z GFS shows a good snow for SW TX and the Hill Country, getting close to Austin, on Wednesday. It shows the moisture sagging south too fast for snows E of I-35. It does seem to be starting to see the strength of the cold though I think it is still a bit warm at the surface.

You think future runs will be colder than this one?

Typically far out, the models dont grab onto the temps at the surface well at all. Even in the short term, arctic fronts typically com in colder by a few degrees then they were expecting.

[spencer817]

12Z GFS shows a good snow for SW TX and the Hill Country, getting close to Austin, on Wednesday. It shows the moisture sagging south too fast for snows E of I-35. It does seem to be starting to see the strength of the cold though I think it is still a bit warm at the surface.

You think future runs will be colder than this one?

Typically far out, the models dont grab onto the temps at the surface well at all. Even in the short term, arctic fronts typically com in colder by a few degrees then they were expecting.

No wonder the locals are forecasting 34 for DFW in 7-8 days and I see that nowhere. Guessing it has something to do with the urban heat island?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

It seems like the Walker cell, i think, in the Western pacific repositioning is REALLY going to work out in our favor. Lets see how long it can remain that strong and in that position. The wave train it creates seems to be great for cold blasts.

[Theepicman116]

As of now the model is showing snow in the dfw area. However it’s light snow based on the total accumulation. Dang south Texans. Getting more snow.


This is the GFS model, if y’all are wondering

[Ralph's Weather]

12Z GFS shows a good snow for SW TX and the Hill Country, getting close to Austin, on Wednesday. It shows the moisture sagging south too fast for snows E of I-35. It does seem to be starting to see the strength of the cold though I think it is still a bit warm at the surface.

You think future runs will be colder than this one?

Yes and likely significantly colder.

[spencer817]

Huge southern snow/ice storm in very long range, 312+ hours, highs in the 20-30s.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Waiting on the euro for confirmation. Very promising. 6 days a way from a cold blast according to the GFS, me like. Been a long summer.

[spencer817]

Waiting on the euro for confirmation. Very promising. 6 days a way from a cold blast according to the GFS, me like. Been a long summer.

Yea I love it, too. Maybe even suggesting 3 cold blasts with maybe even some snow, its certainly promising.

[gboudx]

Another thing to keep in mind is that these types of fronts tend to outperform the models due to the dense nature of the cold air. How many times have we seen the cold air come in faster, and colder than forecasted?

[starsfan65]

Another thing to keep in mind is that these types of fronts tend to outperform the models due to the dense nature of the cold air. How many times have we seen the cold air come in faster, and colder than forecasted?

i seen it a number of times.

[weatherdude1108]

Here's Austin's freezing drizzle, 360 hours out. Work and school shut down for a week, unless the moisture gets scoured out by the polar air first.

[CaptinCrunch]

This thread is going to get popping quickly, COLD is coming. The storm system that will effect the southern plains and NTX is hammering the berrin straight right now and as this system moves SE it will continue to gain strength. It's going to drag down a lot of arctic air as it swings across, and I will go out on the limb here and say we get our first official freeze next Thursday or Friday morning.

Don't be surprised if we only see high's in th 40's Thursday/Friday and maybe even Saturday with lows in the 29-32 range for most of DFW and the surrounding counties.

[weatherdude1108]