Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Brent]

GFS is back to what else? A torch at 300 hours

Cold coming down the plains at 372 hours though

[starsfan65]

GFS is back to what else? A torch at 300 hours

Cold coming down the plains at 372 hours though

There will be a pattern change

[spencer817]

Most of these look like eastern troughs at this point...GFS shows another blast really long range but short lived for us.

[Brent]

DFW doesn't even freeze on the GFS and it goes out to December 14th

[spencer817]

DFW doesn't even freeze on the GFS and it goes out to December 14th

That's just sad, hard to believe we'll even get to 10 like last year at this point.

[starsfan65]

DFW doesn't even freeze on the GFS and it goes out to December 14th

There is no pattern change?

[spencer817]

DFW doesn't even freeze on the GFS and it goes out to December 14th

There is no pattern change?

Not much of one, lowest min temp from the first front that looked oh so promising at first, now has us only getting down to mid-to-upper 30's at this point.

[Brent]

DFW doesn't even freeze on the GFS and it goes out to December 14th

There is no pattern change?

Cold comes down we just get glancing blows like earlier this month(like a day or two where its upper 30s/mid 50s for a high) while a freeze goes deep into Florida

I'm not saying this run is realistic but it's definitely possible. All along some of the signals have looked like the major cold would be east of us

[starsfan65]

DFW doesn't even freeze on the GFS and it goes out to December 14th

There is no pattern change?

Cold comes down we just get glancing blows like earlier this month while a freeze goes deep into Florida

I'm not saying this run is realistic but it's definitely possible. All along some of the signals have looked like the major cold would be east of us

It is more than 7 days away it will go through many changes in the forecast.

[spencer817]

DFW doesn't even freeze on the GFS and it goes out to December 14th

There is no pattern change?

Cold comes down we just get glancing blows like earlier this month(like a day or two where its upper 30s/mid 50s for a high) while a freeze goes deep into Florida

I'm not saying this run is realistic but it's definitely possible. All along some of the signals have looked like the major cold would be east of us

I still trust the EPS and EURO more than the GFS, but it may become a trend soon.

[starsfan65]

There is no pattern change?

Cold comes down we just get glancing blows like earlier this month(like a day or two where its upper 30s/mid 50s for a high) while a freeze goes deep into Florida

I'm not saying this run is realistic but it's definitely possible. All along some of the signals have looked like the major cold would be east of us

I still trust the EPS and EURO more than the GFS, but it may become a trend soon.

a trend?

[Cpv17]

DFW doesn't even freeze on the GFS and it goes out to December 14th

There is no pattern change?

Cold comes down we just get glancing blows like earlier this month(like a day or two where its upper 30s/mid 50s for a high) while a freeze goes deep into Florida

I'm not saying this run is realistic but it's definitely possible. All along some of the signals have looked like the major cold would be east of us

I’m choosing to be optimistic about this situation. I’m taking climatology into account. Now I’m not completely sure about this, but I’m pretty sure that in December, Texas is prone to getting artic blasts. I do believe that December favors these blasts of cold to have more of a southerly trajection vs a southeasterly trajection. Now I think late in February and into March is where climatology favors the southeasterly movement of these artic blasts. I personally do believe it will get quite cold down here and we will see some moisture around as well. I’ve seen too much evidence over the past few days to suggest otherwise.

[Brent]

There is no pattern change?

Cold comes down we just get glancing blows like earlier this month(like a day or two where its upper 30s/mid 50s for a high) while a freeze goes deep into Florida

I'm not saying this run is realistic but it's definitely possible. All along some of the signals have looked like the major cold would be east of us

I’m choosing to be optimistic about this situation. I’m taking climatology into account. Now I’m not completely sure about this, but I’m pretty sure that in December, Texas is prone to getting artic blasts. I do believe that December favors these blasts of cold to have more of a southerly trajection vs a southeasterly trajection. Now I think late in February and into March is where Climatology favors the southeasterly movement of these artic blasts. I personally do believe it will get quite cold down here and we will see some moisture around as well. I’ve seen too much evidence over the past few days to suggest otherwise.

I hope you're right and hey who knows, but I think the next day or two will tell the tale on which way this goes with the initial blast next week.

I'm split on it anyway.. I wouldn't be surprised if it goes east but I also wouldn't be surprised if we have more interesting weather either

and I will say, I'd be very surprised if DFW goes to mid December without a freeze. Even as embarassing as last winter was, still had a freeze next week

0z Euro is looking like a dry fropa Monday Night, not a good start on rain potential, but we'll see how the cold looks

Nothing really cold so far, maybe a day or two with highs in the 50s lows well above freezing

Pattern is too progressive, gonna move the trough right out on the Euro

[South Texas Storms]

All 0z models trended much drier across Texas unfortunately.

We sure could use some rain around here.

[srainhoutx]

I would stick to the Ensembles versus the deterministic GFS/ECMWF solutions this far out. The 00Z GEFS/ECMWF EPS suggest a very similar Upper Air Pattern late next week. A strong PNA Ridge into Alaska and the Artic and a deep Central/Eastern North America trough typically spells a N to NW flow into the Plains and the Eastern US along and to the East of the Rockies allowing dense snow refrigerated cold air in Canada to spill South and SE with ease. Check back this weekend for the "finer" details regarding what our sensible weather may hold beyond next Wednesday...

[Ntxw]

Agree with srain above stick to the ensembles. The guidance is playing catchup to the EPO/PNA plunge. Likely to have arctic/cold blast that the OP can't seem to grasp yet mid to late week followed by succession of more strong fronts after as the ridge is largely in place slowly retrograding.

And if you're worried about a freeze, bet the farm DFW will have one with the air mass coming easily.

[opticsguy]

FWIW, November 1989 started out pretty warm in DFW, and December ended up being pretty brutal towards the end.

[orangeblood]

It appears the biggest threat to the cold pushing to the east of the southern plains is too strong of a positive PNA. Fortunately, the models have been way too aggressive in forecasting a strong PNA over the past several months, particularly in the 10-14 day range

[gboudx]

Some of you should stop basing next week on 1 or 2 model runs. We see this all......the......time. They change, especially in the long-term(7+ days out). Take anything you see with a grain of salt, even if they're showing a foot of snow. There's just not enough data in the models to even been close to accurate at this point.

[Tireman4]

I would stick to the Ensembles versus the deterministic GFS/ECMWF solutions this far out. The 00Z GEFS/ECMWF EPS suggest a very similar Upper Air Pattern late next week. A strong PNA Ridge into Alaska and the Artic and a deep Central/Eastern North America trough typically spells a N to NW flow into the Plains and the Eastern US along and to the East of the Rockies allowing dense snow refrigerated cold air in Canada to spill South and SE with ease. Check back this weekend for the "finer" details regarding what our sensible weather may hold beyond next Wednesday...

Guys, Srain is an old pro. He knows from whence he speaks...just watch the ensembles in the upcoming weeks...