Texas Fall 2017

[CaptinCrunch]

Very chilly and wet morning, highs today won't make it out of the 40's with continuing showers through this late evening. Rest of the week looks cool with slightly below average temperatures. This weekend looks about average with high's in the upper 60's and lower 70's with another chance of rain by Sunday.

Weak upper level ridging in the wake of the exiting upper level
trough will result in dry weather on Thursday. Abundant sunshine
Thursday will allow for a decent warm up. After a chilly start,
temperatures will reach the mid 50s to lower 60s. Lows Thursday
night will still be cool with mid to upper 30s west and low to mid
40s east.

The upper flow will become more zonal Friday and Saturday as the
upper level trough over the eastern U.S. moves east while an upper
level trough moves into the Pacific Northwest and through the
Rockies. This will result in southerly winds returning as lee side
troughing develops. Highs will be in the 60s area wide Friday and
will be in the mid 60s to around 70 Saturday. As the
aforementioned upper level trough moves across the Plains, a cold
front is expected to move through the forecast area Sunday. We
should see a slight chance of showers Sunday and maybe some
lingering low chances Sunday night south of the I-20 corridor.
Highs Sunday will range from the mid 60s north to the lower 70s
across Central Texas. Lows Sunday night will be in the mid 40s
north and west to the low to mid 50s across Central Texas.

Dry weather and moderating temperatures are expected for the
early part of next week. Highs will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s
Monday and in the 70s area wide Tuesday. Lows Monday night will
be in the upper 40s to lower 50s

.

[CaptinCrunch]

This is the type setup we need through out winter, only with high's in the upper 20's lower 30's.

[Ntxw]

47F and raining at DFW midday now. We went from late summer to early winter in less than a week! Houston is now 61F and breezy with clouds. KAUS 51F and chilly.

LaLaLand GFS has been back and forth around Thanksgiving. I'm not so sold on any details. I like the high latitude blocking shown on guidance. In time I think the trough will adjust and east of the Rockies should see a chill around the holiday. Thinking the models will swing that way as blocking up top usually means trough below.'

-AO/-NAO couplet is a good indicator of more persistent below normal. What the Pacific does determines if it's a string of below normal days or a big blast





PNA remains fairly negative to less negative but not positive so I don't think the cold will slide too far east. It's Nina climo. Joe Bastardi, whether you like him or not, has thrown around 1950 which I think is a fair year. Now I don't expect the coldest November temperature on record like Nov 1950 but there should be some cold coming.

[Yukon Cornelius]

What a change from this past weekend. Currently 41 with a wind chill of 32.

[CaptinCrunch]

I agree with you Ntxw!

I think we are in for a colder 2nd half on November than what may be forecast. As for our friend Joe B. he is well known to be East bias on his forecast and perdictions, but November 1950 was a precursor to a colder than average winter for much of the country. The current ONI is about the same as 1950 @ 0.4-0.6, but of course that winter stayed Neutral, but the ONI did get up to .08 it just didn't make the 5 consective 3 month over lapping reading to make an official weak Nina. (which could very well happen this Winter)

[Brent]

models look pretty boring until we get close to Thanksgiving(which is fantasy land)... temps near seasonal levels and then probably above normal next week. No cold air and no widespread rain after today.

[Ntxw]

models look pretty boring until we get close to Thanksgiving(which is fantasy land)... temps near seasonal levels and then probably above normal next week. No cold air and no widespread rain after today.

This was the Euro forecast for today from a week ago at 850s



GFS was better but it turned out a little colder than it too



. Euro has been struggling at times. It's doing better on a global scale but in our region it's had some big misses of late especially medium range where it's wheel barrow is supposed to be. The last update for it has not been kind in the southern plains. Quite simple, it's not handling the low level cold air well, keeps trying to hold it up north due to unfavorable upper air pattern when in fact it slides south anyway.

[Yukon Cornelius]

It didn't get quite to freezing last night/this morning. The low on my weather station showed 34. However, we did have one of the heaviest frosts ive seen in November. Mornings like this just start the day off right.

[CaptinCrunch]

Another cool start to today, and it looks to stay cool through Monday with highs only in the upper 60's. Today we are looking at a high of mid 50"s with lows tonight lower 40's. Rain chances went up another 10% for Saturday night through Monday, and I hope they increase even more as we still need the rain.

after the first 5 days on November we were 12 degrees above the monthly average, with the last 3 cool days we have cut that in half to +6.1 and we'll knock another 2 off with today average. Our rain for the month is 0.81" which is -0.08 below the monthly average at this time. The next 10 days looks to be average to slightly below till about Wednesday of next week where the forecast high is 74.

[dhweather]

models look pretty boring until we get close to Thanksgiving(which is fantasy land)... temps near seasonal levels and then probably above normal next week. No cold air and no widespread rain after today.

This was the Euro forecast for today from a week ago at 850s

http://i67.tinypic.com/xnuouo.png

GFS was better but it turned out a little colder than it too

http://i65.tinypic.com/efp9ux.png

. Euro has been struggling at times. It's doing better on a global scale but in our region it's had some big misses of late especially medium range where it's wheel barrow is supposed to be. The last update for it has not been kind in the southern plains. Quite simple, it's not handling the low level cold air well, keeps trying to hold it up north due to unfavorable upper air pattern when in fact it slides south anyway.

again, not picking on NTXW here....

Where is the social media outrage for this? That's not a slight miss, it's significant. If the GFS did it, we would hear about how much the GFS sucks for a week.

[wxman57]

"Interesting" forecast for December from the GFS ensembles.

[CaptinCrunch]

Not totaly bad, it's puts NTX in the +2.5 for the monthly mean which is basically what December 2016 was @ +2.6 The caviot to last December was the month was on pace to be -2.6 for the monthly mean till the SW ridge butted in and from the 24th thru the 28th (80 on Christmas Day) we averaged about +20 degrees above normal, but we did record 6 freezes and low's of 16 & 17 back to back.

But as with any model run this far out you take it with a grain of salt.

[bubba hotep]

With a period of blocking looking likely, it's too bad that the Pacific most likely won't allow much cold for the S. Plains. Analogs and models are suggesting that we just see glancing blows of cold. It is a good sign that the cold quickly rebuilds in WCAN towards the end of Week 2, so maybe the next dump is for the S. Plains? Also, almost all MacFarland signature events occur during la nina years.

[Brent]

GFS has the cold blast next weekend largely east of us but goes straight into Texas for Thanksgiving

[starsfan65]

GFS has the cold blast next weekend largely east of us but goes straight into Texas for Thanksgiving

Are we going to be above normal next weekend?

[Brent]

GFS has the cold blast next weekend largely east of us but goes straight into Texas for Thanksgiving

Are we going to be above normal next weekend?

there will be some days above normal it appears, probably this time next week then cooler next weekend, and then above normal again before the Thanksgiving front. GFS has a couple days near and above 80 leading up to Thanksgiving.

[starsfan65]

GFS has the cold blast next weekend largely east of us but goes straight into Texas for Thanksgiving

Are we going to be above normal next weekend?

there will be some days above normal it appears, probably this time next week then cooler next weekend, and then above normal again before the Thanksgiving front. GFS has a couple days near and above 80 leading up to Thanksgiving.

Monday and Tuesday before Thanksgiving expected to be near 80 degrees.

[bubba hotep]

The new Euro Weeklies go out to Christmas and are basically a mirror image of this and dry:



Not a lot hope out there for this winter right now.

[Brent]

La Nina favors warm and dry unfortunately. Maybe we'll get lucky but I'm not that optimistic. Dashed hopes too many times.

Lows around 60 in DFW look probable mid next week with highs 75-80. Way above average again.

[starsfan65]

La Nina favors warm and dry unfortunately. Maybe we'll get lucky but I'm not that optimistic. Dashed hopes too many times.

Lows around 60 in DFW look probable mid next week with highs 75-80. Way above average again.

Don't like it at all!!