Texas Fall 2017

[Brent]

76/69 at DFW at 1am

Are we fall back or spring forward?

Euro has DFW In the 80s again at day 10. Isn't that lovely? I got a feeling they are never gonna be far away this winter

[Ntxw]

Some wild contrast in temps with cold north and warm south. Front is marching south. NAM sends initial front tomorrow morning and colder air lagging some as the true deeper cold hits Weds that goes into the gulf. Model says we fall Weds throughout down to low 40s by late afternoon.

[TheProfessor]

Under a Flash Flood Watch for the first time here in Ohio(I always head back home before they usually get them) from what I was told the main street by campus floods fairly easily so I'll probably need to be extra careful if the heavy rain pans out.

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro is a decent rain hit for the DFW area, it is pretty similiar to the 06z GFS.

[bubba hotep]

DFW is already at 92!

[Tireman4]

I was out watching a little league football game. 87 air temperature. 69 degree dew point. Feels like 91. Yep, September. Sigh.

[Ntxw]

Too HOT today! Good news is high res guidance is pushing front sooner for I-20 and north. Wind shift occurs tonight if they are correct



Not hard to see the front, currently sagging in southern Oklahoma



Still looking at 40s for most of the day Weds

[Brent]

94 at DFW again today

I don't even want to know how bad our anomalies are the first 5 days of the month

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Today was absolutely disgusting. Ho does the SAI look? Looks like the snow pack will start building soon in the NW territories for us. Im still on board that we will have cold spells and warm spells this year. Basically like we just had over the last week. Drastic changes. Also dry. Maybe if we get some Greenland blocking we can lock in the cold for a while like Ntx was saying.


Other than that, get this heat out of here!

[Ntxw]

Today was absolutely disgusting. Ho does the SAI look? Looks like the snow pack will start building soon in the NW territories for us. Im still on board that we will have cold spells and warm spells this year. Basically like we just had over the last week. Drastic changes. Also dry. Maybe if we get some Greenland blocking we can lock in the cold for a while like Ntx was saying.


Other than that, get this heat out of here!

SAI was a negative this year because the growth was slow over the month. But extent in the end was high, especially over North America

[1900hurricane]

[gboudx]

Woke up, the temp was 65, just 20 mins later it was 72 under mostly cloudy skies. I guess the front is sloshing around overhead.

[Ntxw]

Front is bisecting the metroplex stalled. Eastplexers are in a warmer SW wind 70s while 60s with a WNW wind for the western side. Everyone in-between oscillates with the wind change.

[gboudx]

Yep, wind is definitely from the SW here.

[Ntxw]

57 60 63 67 74

In that order Denton, Fort Worth, DFW Airport, Dallas, Rockwall currently almost a 20F difference between locations. Some 40s even further NW around Wichita Falls

[Tireman4]

Man, yesterday was hot. Goodness gracious. I was at Turner Stadium in Humble with my son watching a little league football game. We tied the record at 88. We will come close today and tomorrow ( the record high both days are 88...set back in 1963 today and 1969 tomorrow).


00
FXUS64 KHGX 061121
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion...COR
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
520 AM CST Mon Nov 6 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Zonal upper flow pattern across the Southern Plains going into
the first full week of November. Record level warmth continues as
the only maximum high or low temperature "not" tied or broken
on Sunday was College Station`s high temperature. Entrenched
southwesterly flow within this southern-based upper ridging has
advected in mid-level warm and dry air from southern Texas so...
when mixed down to surface during the afternoon hours...has warmed
ambient temperatures into the average upper 80s...15 degrees
above normal for early November. Morning minimum temperature
readings have also been abnormally high...on average near 20
degrees above seasonable standards...as (in feedback fashion) the
combination of low stratus brought on by high lower level moisture
pulled in on overnight southerly breezes will not allow these
very warm afternoon temperatures to fall much below 75 F. The
static nature to the synoptic will maintain this warm and muggy
theme the next couple of days. A Wednesday cold frontal passage
will finally break us out of this uncomfortable summer-like
scenario.

Not an overly strong frontal passage early Wednesday that will
focus the higher rain accumulations to those communities across
the far north-northeastern CWA. Most along and north of I-10 will
pick up about a third of an inch of rain with half inch to slightly
over inch amounts across the northern third of the forecast area.
Those south of I-10 will likely only receive a tenth to near quarter
of an inch just ahead of or along the near surface boundary.
Downstream mid-level capping and dry air above the inversion will
signal just light rain/showers. The front is timed to be off the
coast by noon...west-to-east precipitation clearing out from late
afternoon through midnight Thursday. Cool and dry air advection will
provide a much needed break from 80s/70s...regulating afternoon
warmth to the 60s/70s and allowing temperatures to fall into 40s/50s
from late night through sunrise going into the weekend...or slightly
below normal Thursday and Friday. In summary...a yo-yo week
temperature-wise with a little mid-week rain. The next cold front
Sunday is modeled to be weak...a backdoor-type boundary that looks
to do nothing more than just keep any significant warming at bay
heading into mid month. 31

&&

.MARINE...
Light to moderate onshore winds can be expected for the first half
of the week. The next cold front pushes off the coast on Wednesday.
Look for increasing north to northeast winds and building seas after
the front passes. Wednesday night and Thursday, caution flags will
likely be required, and a small craft advisory might be needed.
Expect decreasing northeast to east winds and lower seas at the
end of the week, and light to moderate east to southeast winds
over the weekend. 42

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly MVFR ceilings early this morning will begin lifting after
sunrise with VFR conditions anticipated to develop by later in the
morning or early in the afternoon and S to SSW winds around 10 knots.
Expecting another round of mainly MVFR clouds and possible fog late
tonight through Tuesday morning. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 87 70 85 58 65 / 10 10 10 40 50
Houston (IAH) 89 72 87 66 73 / 10 10 10 30 50
Galveston (GLS) 84 74 84 71 76 / 10 10 10 20 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 AM CST early this
morning for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...31/42

[starsfan65]

57 60 63 67 74

In that order Denton, Fort Worth, DFW Airport, Dallas, Rockwall currently almost a 20F difference between locations. Some 40s even further NW around Wichita Falls

How much progress will the front make today?

[Ntxw]

How much progress will the front make today?

Not much, it's settled where it is most of today, perhaps slightly further south and east. NAM is capturing it well, has DFW in the 50s tomorrow and 40s Wednesday. It is a tale of two worlds right now in the metroplex. Some feels like September while others November. It will blast through the rest of Texas tomorrow afternoon and evening as height rises.

[starsfan65]

How much progress will the front make today?

Not much, it's settled where it is most of today, perhaps slightly further south and east. NAM is capturing it well, has DFW in the 50s tomorrow and 40s Wednesday. It is a tale of two worlds right now in the metroplex. Some feels like September while others November. It will blast through the rest of Texas tomorrow afternoon and evening as height rises.

What is the difference in Temperatures in DFW?

[Ntxw]

How much progress will the front make today?

Not much, it's settled where it is most of today, perhaps slightly further south and east. NAM is capturing it well, has DFW in the 50s tomorrow and 40s Wednesday. It is a tale of two worlds right now in the metroplex. Some feels like September while others November. It will blast through the rest of Texas tomorrow afternoon and evening as height rises.

What is the difference in Temperatures in DFW?

Almost 10-20F between neighboring counties