Texas Fall 2017

[Ntxw]

Per GFS tomorrow maybe close to 80-85, Sunday a bit warmer. Quite warm for November, Monday afternoon and evening front blows through and 50s to low 60s for highs Tues. 40s and 50s Wednesday. 50s/60s through end of next week. Doesn't look like endless 90s to me...

[Ntxw]

I have been digging through some SST analogs. I took some weight with second year cold neutral or Ninas but not all is the case. There's not precise match but some years to ponder.

Current November daily



2000 is a decent match. Nina is a little more focused central that year. IO displaced somewhat. Fall warmth but November and December took the cake for cold. December 2000 at DFW was the last time the average monthly temperature was below 40F.



The following year in 2001



2005- big Atlantic hurricane season



2013- NE Pac blob, isn't there this year but ENSO is decent

[bubba hotep]

+IOD and extensive warmth centered around Hawaii make this a tough year to figure. QBO makes '00 & '05 matches. '05 is closer SST wise to what we see now. If willing to ignore QBO then that pulls in '16... Don't produce the '05 + '16 temp analogs unless you want to cry.

[Portastorm]

Record-setting heat today in Austin as we hit 88 degrees at Camp Mabry, breaking a 23-year-old record there. We tied the record high at the airport with 87 degrees.

[Brent]

Looks like 3 more days and then big changes will start

Wouldn't be surprised if some places in North Texas struggle to stay in the 50s Wednesday with possibly rain

[1900hurricane]

I wish there was some middle ground between soupy dewpoints >70ºF and <30ºF frostpoints that induce lip fossilization.

[Ntxw]

I wish there was some middle ground between soupy dewpoints >70ºF and <30ºF frostpoints that induce lip fossilization.

You got to befriend chapsticks! I didn't like it at first but it really helps.

[Brent]

The warmest high on the 0z Euro at DFW after Tuesday is barely 70 with several days struggling to make the low 60s late next week and a pretty sizable chilly rain event on Wednesday. The 0z GFS isn't as wet but has mid 40s and light rain during the day Wednesday. The Euro has some upper 30s after the rain ends Thursday morning

[weatherdude1108]

Record-setting heat today in Austin as we hit 88 degrees at Camp Mabry, breaking a 23-year-old record there. We tied the record high at the airport with 87 degrees.

My car said 88 degrees the entire way home from work yesterday. My house station didn't get higher than 84 it showed. Sickening none-the-less.

[bubba hotep]

The warmest high on the 0z Euro at DFW after Tuesday is barely 70 with several days struggling to make the low 60s late next week and a pretty sizable chilly rain event on Wednesday. The 0z GFS isn't as wet but has mid 40s and light rain during the day Wednesday. The Euro has some upper 30s after the rain ends Thursday morning

GFS is much drier and the Euro has been pretty horrible with precipitation placement in the medium range. Maybe it will finally be right? But I suspect that we will see the Euro trend drier over the weekend. The GFS is more sheared out looking and the Euro has much more compact s/w. However, it does look like the chances are going up for a cold snap in the 2nd half of Nov., if the Pacific jet will play along then we could see a +PNA/-EPO/-WPO setup. If the PNA can stay more neutral then we could also see the chances of winter weather increase as well.

[bubba hotep]

With the semi permanent ridge over N. Mexico and no blocking to speak up, all we can seem to line up are glancing blows of cold air over the next couple of weeks. Really need something to shake up this pattern.

[starsfan65]

With the semi permanent ridge over N. Mexico and no blocking to speak up, all we can seem to line up are glancing blows of cold air over the next couple of weeks. Really need something to shake up this pattern.

What does it need for a pattern shake up?

[South Texas Storms]

Another record high for DFW today, might hit 90F again.

[Ntxw]

With the semi permanent ridge over N. Mexico and no blocking to speak up, all we can seem to line up are glancing blows of cold air over the next couple of weeks. Really need something to shake up this pattern.

What does it need for a pattern shake up?

We need blocking to hold in the cooler air masses. But regardless, the globe currently is spiking unusually warm this fall. 2017 500mb heights have been above normal, 2016 was more than 2015 and that more than 2014...we know the drill.

UAH and RSS are two sources that have long data trends for such kept records. They have a spike going on that typically is associated with El Nino, however we currently do not have one. It's just a lot of warmth in the troposphere in the NHEM so warm spells have more umph.

[Ntxw]

On a good note. CFSv2 monthlies are not looking to shabby. Workable

December



Jan



Feb



500mb looks decent with west coast ridging hooking up with Alaskan higher heights

[Brent]

Feels like spring out just need some storms to go along lol

[bubba hotep]

89 at DFW... ugh. Should have no problem hitting 90 tomorrow.

[Brent]

New record high already set and if the airport doesn't drop below 70 tonight we'll have a new record highest minimum

So exciting

[bubba hotep]

New record high already set and if the airport doesn't drop below 70 tonight we'll have a new record highest minimum

So exciting

Rewriting the record books! Woo! If only we could see a cold snap this extreme

[bubba hotep]

Welp, there it is.

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
0424 PM CDT SAT NOV 04 2017

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT DALLAS FORT WORTH...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 90 DEGREES WAS SET AT DALLAS FORT
WORTH TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 88 SET IN 1987.