Texas Fall 2017

[weatherdude1108]

I know. I have my system on "auto" with setpoints for "heat" and "cool", set for a multiple degree differential between the "heat" and "cool" settings at different times of day/night, based on personal comfort levels agreed upon by family.

Last year, it alternated constantly between heat in the morning and cool in the afternoon.

This year so far, it has switched from "cool" to "heat", but stayed on heat longer (since last Friday). No heating or cooling turned on yesterday, and it was warm enough to start feeling sultry in house, but not warm enough for "cool" to switch on, nor cool enough for "heat" to switch on (set on 73 to 80 for "cool" at different times of day; and 65-71 for "heat" at different times of day).

It sometimes gets uncomfortable in house if it has been raining and not quite hot enough for AC to come on. Then I do it manually, or turn on house fan or ceiling fan. I am sure it's hot enough for AC to turn on today.

[dhweather]

Think of it this way - if this 90+ degree heat persists, that increases our chances for A CAT 5 IN THE GULF !!!!!!!! (tm)

[TheProfessor]

I don't envy yall lol. Today was finally a day where I didn't need my jacket or sweatshirt(not totally ready for winter) I might be a bit too far east for some Severe Weather this weekend, but it should be interesting.

[Ntxw]

Officially 94F today at DFW. 84 at KAUS and 90 at IAH.

NTX was the hottest place in the country today centered around the metroplex. Cold front on the way...

[Brent]

Officially 94F today at DFW. 84 at KAUS and 90 at IAH.

NTX was the hottest place in the country today centered around the metroplex. Cold front on the way...

the cold front tomorrow kind of came out of nowhere

But its going to warm right back up by Sunday, hopefully closer to upper 80s than mid 90s

[Ntxw]

Officially 94F today at DFW. 84 at KAUS and 90 at IAH.

NTX was the hottest place in the country today centered around the metroplex. Cold front on the way...

the cold front tomorrow kind of came out of nowhere

But its going to warm right back up by Sunday, hopefully closer to upper 80s than mid 90s

Short range guidance is hinting at a front Monday before a bigger one mid week. As I mentioned earlier we are sitting between very warm south and a lot of cold air up north. The models are not grasping the weight of the cold as they hang it up in the medium to long range.

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro goes 90, 92, 91 for Sun - Tue... From no 90s to 90s all the time. Also, the Euro Weeklies offer no hope, above normal temps and below normal precip through the 1st 2/3s of DEC. Say good bye to winter in Texas lol

[Brent]

The 3km NAM has DFW struggling to make 70 tomorrow though out of the blue

Small hopes lol

[bubba hotep]

The 3km NAM has DFW struggling to make 70 tomorrow though out of the blue

Small hopes lol

It refused to move DFW past 89 for today. I would love sub 70 tomorrow before our torch of a weekend.

[Brent]

0z GFS has some fantasy land fun(I don't know why I bother)... a big cold dump at mid-month and a close call for some frozen precip NW/west of DFW as the precip ends

too bad its 300 hours out

[Ntxw]

The 3km NAM has DFW struggling to make 70 tomorrow though out of the blue

Small hopes lol

I believe the models were calling for near 90 or close previously for today. That is a pretty big bust from earlier in the week by the globals. They had yesterday right.

[Ntxw]

58F and cloudy now with a NW wind. Slow climb up until this afternoon. Unfortunately it won't make progress for central and S Texas.

Reminder of the time change Fall back this weekend. We will also move to the Winter thread once this month is up.

[South Texas Storms]

Man the upcoming pattern sure does look boring. Warm and dry.

Not seeing much hope for change in the long-range models until December (based on the Euro weeklies). Hope it happens sooner.

[gpsnowman]

Man the upcoming pattern sure does look boring. Warm and dry.

Not seeing much hope for change in the long-range models until December (based on the Euro weeklies). Hope it happens sooner.

From 94 degrees, shorts, and flip flops yesterday to jeans and a sweatshirt this morning to shorts, flip flops, a/c, and temps near 90 for a few days. This is absurd. I can't wait for another heat filled autumn with hot breezes in my face while watching fall leaves blow northward. Nothing says autumn like sweating while eating your Thanksgiving turkey and cranking the a/c to rid your home of humidity on Christmas Day!!!! It's the most wonderful time of year!!!!! What do we have to do around here to get some cold, moisture, or both??? I am on the cliff........contemplating.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Hasn't the Euro been pretty unreliable lately?

[CaptinCrunch]

A much cooler morning than forecast even last night, and foggy across a lot of areas. We'll be lucky to reach 74 today, and I don't see upper 80's tomorrow either, more like lower 80's.

Yes, the Euro has been horrible as of lately and the NAM has done fairly well on the short range stuff. I'm not relying much on the long range models as they have not been very good either since we are in this transition flux between warm and cold air masses.

[Ntxw]

A much cooler morning than forecast even last night, and foggy across a lot of areas. We'll be lucky to reach 74 today, and I don't see upper 80's tomorrow either, more like lower 80's.

Yes, the Euro has been horrible as of lately and the NAM has done fairly well on the short range stuff. I'm not relying much on the long range models as they have not been very good either since we are in this transition flux between warm and cold air masses.

You can see clear why the globals wanted to make it warm. Above normal heights and NW trough usually spells torch. For some S of Waco it will still be but to the north it's also clear how the shallow surface cold layer made its way through despite the warmer aloft pattern

Visuals





5000ft temps suggest it should be hot



But it's not in those areas.

[Brent]

DFW still 57 at 11am... -37 off 4pm yesterday.

Also the globals are trending faster with the mid-week front, could now pass DFW early Tuesday saving another record day.

58 at noon, the high was 70? at midnight and we might be lucky to beat that lol NBC 5 just went 69

[Ralph's Weather]

Today is pretty representative of the fact that this winter will have its share of cold. Upper air pattern is very close to what is expected this winter. West Texas should be pretty cold while I-35 and east will be swinging between the eastern ridging and the NW troughiness.

Here is the 500mb anomalies for North America currently:



Here is the latest CanSIPS for DJF:



This is why I do not buy a torch winter though the upper levels will def be warm.

[CaptinCrunch]

DFW still 57 at 11am... -37 off 4pm yesterday.

Also the globals are trending faster with the mid-week front, could now pass DFW early Tuesday saving another record day.

58 at noon, the high was 70? at midnight and we might be lucky to beat that lol NBC 5 just went 69

1pm and it's only 61 @ DFW, that 69 may be a stretch for today

I like what they said here as to why we are cooler than expected.

Based on latest observations, temperatures were lowered several
degrees across the northwestern half of the area where low cloud
cover is expected to hang tough into the early afternoon, while
temperatures were raised just a bit across our far south and east
ahead of the front where mixing will allow temperatures to rise
into the mid 80s.

A compact, but pretty potent shortwave is currently spiraling
across southern Oklahoma, and this feature seems to have aided in
pushing our cold front a bit farther south and east than
anticipated.