ATL: PHILIPPE - Models
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models
06Z
06z Intensity... Moderate TS potential over next 48 hours...
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models
GFS & HWRF show strongest winds to be E and south of COC with minimal impacts to south FL, windwise.
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- gatorcane
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models
00Z ECMWF ensembles take this generally through South Florida on a SW to NE trajectory:
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models
12z GFS is stronger than previous runs, as a warm core moderate to strong tropical storm as crosses the Bahamas Sunday morning.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models
When should it go to So Fl? What part of So Fl should be most affected?
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models
sunnyday wrote:When should it go to So Fl? What part of So Fl should be most affected?
It’s looking like it might miss S. FL to the south going through the Florida straits.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models
TheStormExpert wrote:sunnyday wrote:When should it go to So Fl? What part of So Fl should be most affected?
It’s looking like it might miss S. FL to the south going through the Florida straits.
maybe not
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _atl_8.png
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- gatorcane
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models
12Z CMC ensembles shift slightly west. 0 to 48 hour animation below with many passing through South Florida and the Keys:
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models
12z Euro is still not doing much with it, I am tossing it out the window.
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- gatorcane
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L - Models
12Z ECMWF ensembles animation. looks like 93L meets up with the cold front over or near South Florida/Keys:
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- gatorcane
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models
Another slight west shift with the GFS because it looks to move 93L faster:
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models
18z HWRF has a sizeable shift west and now right offshore. Another shift west like that it will be over Miami.
Now down 984mb.
Now down 984mb.
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models
Hard to understand where the models are getting this data - considering the system is very poorly organized and shear already present over South Florida is forecast to increase ahead of the front.
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- gatorcane
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models
Frank2 wrote:Hard to understand where the models are getting this data - considering the system is very poorly organized and shear already present over South Florida is forecast to increase ahead of the front.
Because the models move the upper anticyclone NE in tandem with 93l. For example:
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Re: ATL: EIGHTEEN - Models
models have this very close to south fl as this comes off cuba it could bounce right over remember what fay did when she bouced off cuba right to so fl so in watching mode here anything can happen
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