ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Lutz Florida Just had a gust of 28mph.

very far from the storm.

[CrazyC83]

Recon no longer supports the current intensity. Peaked at 12Z perhaps, and down now? We'll see what trends hold.

[Aric Dunn]

missed the center again..

[artist]

000
URNT12 KNHC 071823
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162017
A. 07/18:10:10Z
B. 27 deg 40 min N
088 deg 58 min W
C. 700 mb 2966 m
D. 70 kt
E. 062 deg 19 nm
F. 149 deg 72 kt
G. 063 deg 18 nm
H. 983 mb
I. 9 C / 3043 m
J. 19 C / 3074 m
K. 4 C / NA
L.
M. NA
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF305 0816A NATE OB 26
MAX FL WIND 87 KT 122 / 42 NM 16:55:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 170 / 19 KT
;

[psyclone]

Lutz Florida Just had a gust of 28mph.

very far from the storm.

Big deal. we don't even have a small craft advisory for our coastal waters. And our winds (which really have nothing to do with Nate) are far lower than they were earlier this week.

[tolakram]

000
URNT12 KNHC 071823
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162017
A. 07/18:10:10Z
B. 27 deg 40 min N
088 deg 58 min W
C. 700 mb 2966 m
D. 70 kt
E. 062 deg 19 nm
F. 149 deg 72 kt
G. 063 deg 18 nm
H. 983 mb
I. 9 C / 3043 m
J. 19 C / 3074 m
K. 4 C / NA
L.
M. NA
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF305 0816A NATE OB 26
MAX FL WIND 87 KT 122 / 42 NM 16:55:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 170 / 19 KT
;

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: Euro is still very persistent of a track very close to Nola.

I agree with the EURO. I think unfortunately the Greater New Orleans metro area just may get Nate's entire eyewall passing over the city late tonight.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Recon no longer supports the current intensity. Peaked at 12Z perhaps, and down now? We'll see what trends hold.

Kinda hard to support it when they miss the center though.

[GCANE]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 18:10:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°40'N 88°58'W (27.6667N 88.9667W)

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 983mb (29.03 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,074m (10,085ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 4°C (39°F)

L. Eye Character: No Observation
M. Eye Shape: Not Available

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071826
AF309 0916A NATE HDOB 01 20171007
181600 2936N 09510W 0059 ///// 0047 +303 +215 000000 000 /// /// 23
181630 2936N 09510W 0059 ///// 0047 +302 +215 000000 000 /// /// 23
181700 2936N 09510W 0059 ///// 0047 +306 +215 000000 000 /// /// 23
181730 2936N 09510W 0059 ///// 0047 +304 +214 000000 000 /// /// 23
181800 2936N 09510W 0059 ///// 0047 +296 +214 000000 000 /// /// 23
181830 2936N 09510W 0059 ///// 0046 +292 +214 000000 000 /// /// 23
181900 2936N 09510W 0059 ///// 0046 +294 +214 000000 000 /// /// 23
181930 2936N 09510W 0059 ///// 0046 +295 +214 000000 000 /// /// 23
182000 2936N 09510W 0059 ///// 0046 +297 +214 000000 000 /// /// 23
182030 2936N 09510W 0059 ///// 0046 +297 +214 000000 000 /// /// 23
182100 2936N 09510W 0059 ///// 0046 +300 +214 000000 000 /// /// 23
182130 2936N 09510W 0059 ///// 0046 +299 +214 000000 000 /// /// 23
182200 2936N 09510W 0059 ///// 0046 +300 +214 000000 000 /// /// 23
182230 2936N 09510W 0059 ///// 0046 +304 +214 000000 000 /// /// 23
182300 2936N 09510W 0059 ///// 0046 +303 +215 000000 000 /// /// 23
182330 2936N 09510W 0059 ///// 0046 +306 +216 000000 000 /// /// 23
182400 2936N 09510W 0059 ///// 0046 +307 +217 000000 000 /// /// 23
182430 2936N 09510W 0059 ///// 0046 +320 +217 000000 000 /// /// 23
182500 2936N 09510W 0059 ///// 0046 +325 +218 000000 000 /// /// 23
182530 2936N 09510W 0059 ///// 0046 +324 +219 000000 000 /// /// 23
$$
;

[GCANE]

[tolakram]

Considering the fact they missed the center I would say no weakening trend yet, at least maintaining strength.

[tolakram]

[Dave C]

Seems the southern side kinda got smacked. Could it be some mid level shear? 983 with 19 knts ... about 981-982 mb.

[Shell Mound]

Yes, Nate's southern quadrant and inner core are definitely experiencing south-southwesterly shear. The reason for the apparent weakening can be seen on satellite imagery. Nate has left the protective shield of its upper-level anticyclone and has outrun it. That is why convection near the inner core has decreased while outer bands have intensified. Note that upper-level winds from the southwest are converging over and just northwest of Nate. You can see that winds over Nate's inner core are from the south-southwest, while winds just to the west and northwest are from the southwest. Had these winds been diverging over a distance, they would have favored an expansion of Nate's outflow to the north and west, allowing an outflow channel to develop. That would be a jet exit region, hence divergence. However, what we see with Nate is a jet entrance region (convergence). The upper-level trough axis over the Midwest is to the northeast of Nate, not to its northwest, so the flow behind the trough axis is converging, not spreading apart. This pinches Nate and causes it to experience shear as it nears land. Also, upper-level convergence not only indicates shear, but also allows drier mid-level continental air to enter Nate from the north. This explains the arc clouds and outflow boundaries on Nate's northwestern quadrant. So Nate probably has peaked and will now weaken rather than strengthen up until landfall, which is common for late-season (October) storms that near the northern Gulf Coast (i.e., Lili of 2002), as opposed to storms that occur earlier in the year, in August and September, when continental troughs are weaker and the trough axis is sometimes farther west, allowing outflow expansion and moister low-level air, as with Camille and Harvey.

[Aric Dunn]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 18:10:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°40'N 88°58'W (27.6667N 88.9667W)

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 983mb (29.03 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,074m (10,085ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 4°C (39°F)

L. Eye Character: No Observation
M. Eye Shape: Not Available

yep missed the center..

[wxman57]

looks like a normal process before deepening.. eye is clearing on visible.... just have to keep watching.

The eye may be becoming visible because convection is diminishing and there is less cirrus overhead.

[artist]

2 more flights on their way in

[NDG]

looks like a normal process before deepening.. eye is clearing on visible.... just have to keep watching.

Yeap, I think later this evening is when is going to put up its last show right before making landfall and chance to get to high end Cat 2.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like a normal process before deepening.. eye is clearing on visible.... just have to keep watching.

The eye may be becoming visible because convection is diminishing and there is less cirrus overhead.

yeah that typically happens... then eyewall convection builds again.. time will tell radar showing more eyewall convection building..