ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2161 Postby wxman57 » Sat Oct 07, 2017 1:01 pm

Looks like it is starting to feel the effects of increasing shear, to me. I think it peaked earlier this morning.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Recon Data

#2162 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 07, 2017 1:02 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 071758
AF305 0816A NATE HDOB 57 20171007
174900 2825N 08759W 6967 03135 0019 +103 +058 144046 047 030 003 00
174930 2824N 08800W 6969 03132 0018 +105 +057 143046 047 031 003 00
175000 2822N 08801W 6967 03133 0012 +109 +047 143045 046 034 003 00
175030 2821N 08803W 6969 03130 0016 +103 +051 142047 049 035 004 00
175100 2820N 08804W 6969 03129 0019 +100 +057 140049 050 038 004 00
175130 2819N 08805W 6967 03130 0013 +105 +053 140050 050 039 003 00
175200 2818N 08807W 6970 03127 0007 +106 +059 139051 052 042 002 00
175230 2816N 08808W 6967 03127 0001 +111 +054 139047 050 043 002 00
175300 2815N 08810W 6969 03123 9995 +115 +052 138043 046 047 002 00
175330 2814N 08811W 6969 03122 9996 +111 +056 135042 043 047 002 00
175400 2813N 08812W 6967 03122 0001 +106 +067 137043 043 048 003 00
175430 2812N 08814W 6971 03115 9992 +111 +070 140042 044 048 003 00
175500 2810N 08815W 6969 03117 9993 +107 +077 137042 045 045 003 00
175530 2809N 08817W 6968 03115 9999 +100 +077 136045 047 049 006 03
175600 2808N 08818W 6969 03113 0004 +096 +079 139046 047 049 007 00
175630 2807N 08820W 6970 03111 0011 +088 +081 137049 051 048 007 00
175700 2805N 08821W 6969 03111 0006 +091 +078 140051 054 046 008 00
175730 2804N 08822W 6967 03111 0007 +087 +080 144059 061 053 008 00
175800 2803N 08824W 6965 03107 0009 +083 +083 143061 062 053 010 03
175830 2802N 08825W 6968 03102 0013 +087 +087 144064 065 055 011 00
$$
;
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Re: ATL: NATE - Models

#2163 Postby tolakram » Sat Oct 07, 2017 1:04 pm

12Z Euro

Image
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Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2164 Postby psyclone » Sat Oct 07, 2017 1:08 pm

wxman57 wrote:Looks like it is starting to feel the effects of increasing shear, to me. I think it peaked earlier this morning.


Let's hope. we deserve an underperformer at this point.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2165 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sat Oct 07, 2017 1:08 pm

wxman57 wrote:Looks like it is starting to feel the effects of increasing shear, to me. I think it peaked earlier this morning.


Yep IR is heating up everywhere. Will be a bad little storm, but it could of been a lot worse. I will pray for everyone. :cry:
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Re: ATL: NATE - Recon Data

#2166 Postby artist » Sat Oct 07, 2017 1:09 pm

Missed 55, 56

000
URNT15 KNHC 071758
AF305 0816A NATE HDOB 57 20171007
174900 2825N 08759W 6967 03135 0019 +103 +058 144046 047 030 003 00
174930 2824N 08800W 6969 03132 0018 +105 +057 143046 047 031 003 00
175000 2822N 08801W 6967 03133 0012 +109 +047 143045 046 034 003 00
175030 2821N 08803W 6969 03130 0016 +103 +051 142047 049 035 004 00
175100 2820N 08804W 6969 03129 0019 +100 +057 140049 050 038 004 00
175130 2819N 08805W 6967 03130 0013 +105 +053 140050 050 039 003 00
175200 2818N 08807W 6970 03127 0007 +106 +059 139051 052 042 002 00
175230 2816N 08808W 6967 03127 0001 +111 +054 139047 050 043 002 00
175300 2815N 08810W 6969 03123 9995 +115 +052 138043 046 047 002 00
175330 2814N 08811W 6969 03122 9996 +111 +056 135042 043 047 002 00
175400 2813N 08812W 6967 03122 0001 +106 +067 137043 043 048 003 00
175430 2812N 08814W 6971 03115 9992 +111 +070 140042 044 048 003 00
175500 2810N 08815W 6969 03117 9993 +107 +077 137042 045 045 003 00
175530 2809N 08817W 6968 03115 9999 +100 +077 136045 047 049 006 03
175600 2808N 08818W 6969 03113 0004 +096 +079 139046 047 049 007 00
175630 2807N 08820W 6970 03111 0011 +088 +081 137049 051 048 007 00
175700 2805N 08821W 6969 03111 0006 +091 +078 140051 054 046 008 00
175730 2804N 08822W 6967 03111 0007 +087 +080 144059 061 053 008 00
175800 2803N 08824W 6965 03107 0009 +083 +083 143061 062 053 010 03
175830 2802N 08825W 6968 03102 0013 +087 +087 144064 065 055 011 00
$$


URNT15 KNHC 071748
AF305 0816A NATE HDOB 56 20171007
173900 2849N 08731W 6978 03146 0078 +080 +079 136041 046 039 008 00
173930 2847N 08733W 6968 03159 0080 +075 +070 143045 048 040 005 00
174000 2846N 08734W 6969 03155 0065 +086 +064 144047 048 040 005 00
174030 2845N 08735W 6969 03154 0061 +088 +061 145046 047 041 003 00
174100 2844N 08737W 6969 03151 0057 +090 +059 147047 047 038 003 00
174130 2843N 08738W 6969 03149 0055 +090 +059 150046 047 037 002 00
174200 2841N 08739W 6967 03149 0056 +086 +059 149046 047 037 003 00
174230 2840N 08741W 6968 03149 0053 +089 +070 146043 044 038 003 00
174300 2839N 08742W 6969 03148 0050 +090 +077 147044 044 036 003 00
174330 2838N 08744W 6970 03146 0044 +094 +075 146044 045 035 003 00
174400 2837N 08745W 6970 03145 0041 +096 +077 147045 045 033 003 00
174430 2836N 08746W 6967 03146 0051 +087 +079 146045 046 035 007 00
174500 2834N 08748W 6972 03140 0070 +077 +077 144044 046 036 009 00
174530 2833N 08749W 6972 03138 0055 +083 +074 147042 043 035 009 00
174600 2832N 08750W 6967 03143 0045 +089 +065 147044 045 035 002 00
174630 2831N 08752W 6973 03138 0037 +095 +077 148045 045 033 003 00
174700 2830N 08753W 6965 03145 0028 +101 +072 146045 046 034 003 00
174730 2828N 08754W 6971 03137 0029 +100 +065 147047 048 033 003 00
174800 2827N 08756W 6967 03139 0030 +097 +066 146049 050 033 003 00
174830 2826N 08757W 6967 03138 0027 +099 +063 144048 051 032 002 00
Select All
Last edited by artist on Sat Oct 07, 2017 1:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2167 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 07, 2017 1:10 pm

no doubt the two things that saved the northern Gulf coast from a potential major hurricane hit were:

(1) the NONAME system
(2) the fast forward speed.

the NONAME system had something to do with (2)
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Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2168 Postby Blown Away » Sat Oct 07, 2017 1:11 pm

On satellite does not appear to be a strengthening storm anymore...
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Re: ATL: NATE - Recon Data

#2169 Postby artist » Sat Oct 07, 2017 1:11 pm

Duplicate
Last edited by artist on Sat Oct 07, 2017 1:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2170 Postby NDG » Sat Oct 07, 2017 1:11 pm

12z Euro edge a little to east, 10 miles east of Nola but still well west of the NHC's track.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Models

#2171 Postby NDG » Sat Oct 07, 2017 1:12 pm

:uarrow: Euro is still very persistent of a track very close to Nola.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Recon Data

#2172 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 07, 2017 1:13 pm

URNT15 KNHC 071808
AF305 0816A NATE HDOB 58 20171007
175900 2801N 08826W 6968 03096 0008 +089 +089 149065 066 054 015 03
175930 2800N 08827W 6969 03091 9992 +090 +090 151065 065 056 012 03
180000 2759N 08829W 6970 03087 9983 +091 +091 152066 067 056 011 00
180030 2757N 08830W 6964 03090 9977 +092 +092 152066 067 056 009 00
180100 2756N 08831W 6969 03079 9966 +096 +092 153065 067 056 006 00
180130 2755N 08832W 6970 03073 9947 +105 +091 152067 067 058 005 00
180200 2754N 08834W 6970 03065 9933 +111 +091 151066 068 058 007 00
180230 2753N 08835W 6969 03061 9928 +110 +089 153063 065 059 007 00
180300 2752N 08836W 6964 03061 9944 +093 +092 153067 067 062 012 00
180330 2751N 08837W 6968 03052 9936 +093 +092 153069 071 066 016 00
180400 2750N 08839W 6971 03041 9934 +092 +091 153070 071 070 017 00
180430 2749N 08840W 6963 03044 9922 +094 +091 150072 072 071 019 03
180500 2748N 08841W 6977 03017 9912 +096 +091 152070 072 061 026 03
180530 2747N 08842W 6964 03027 9918 +094 +094 150067 069 054 025 00
180600 2745N 08843W 6963 03024 9896 +106 +106 160058 066 061 012 00
180630 2744N 08845W 6972 03003 9876 +114 +114 162053 056 061 010 03
180700 2744N 08846W 6976 02996 9845 +124 +113 158037 046 062 005 00
180730 2743N 08848W 6966 03006 9836 +133 +087 154025 034 059 005 00
180800 2742N 08850W 6972 02996 9835 +132 +082 168020 022 046 001 03
180830 2741N 08852W 6967 03001 9835 +130 +083 168019 020 034 001 00
$$
;

Intensity levelling off?
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Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2173 Postby funster » Sat Oct 07, 2017 1:14 pm

Looking weird on satellite while on radar it looks like eyewall closing off. :?:
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Re: ATL: NATE - Recon Data

#2174 Postby artist » Sat Oct 07, 2017 1:15 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 071809
NOAA9 WE16A NATE HDOB 05 20171007
180000 2809N 08507W 1772 13224 0677 -570 //// 230019 020 /// /// 05
180030 2805N 08506W 1772 13225 0678 -573 //// 224016 016 /// /// 05
180100 2802N 08506W 1772 13226 0679 -573 //// 222015 015 /// /// 05
180130 2758N 08505W 1773 13226 0679 -573 //// 222015 016 /// /// 05
180200 2754N 08505W 1772 13227 0679 -572 //// 224016 016 /// /// 05
180230 2751N 08504W 1772 13226 0679 -571 //// 226015 016 /// /// 05
180300 2747N 08504W 1772 13227 0679 -573 //// 223013 014 /// /// 05
180330 2743N 08503W 1773 13226 0679 -573 //// 224013 013 /// /// 05
180400 2740N 08503W 1772 13226 0679 -574 //// 225011 012 /// /// 05
180430 2736N 08502W 1773 13226 0679 -575 //// 223009 010 /// /// 05
180500 2732N 08501W 1772 13226 0679 -576 //// 226010 010 /// /// 05
180530 2729N 08501W 1772 13227 0679 -576 //// 237011 011 /// /// 05
180600 2725N 08501W 1772 13225 0679 -576 //// 239009 009 /// /// 05
180630 2721N 08501W 1773 13224 0679 -574 //// 236008 008 /// /// 05
180700 2718N 08502W 1772 13227 0680 -574 //// 226006 007 /// /// 05
180730 2714N 08502W 1772 13228 0681 -574 //// 220006 006 /// /// 05
180800 2710N 08502W 1771 13226 0681 -575 //// 212005 006 /// /// 05
180830 2706N 08502W 1773 13227 0681 -576 //// 186005 006 /// /// 05
180900 2703N 08502W 1772 13227 0681 -575 //// 206006 006 /// /// 05
180930 2659N 08502W 1772 13228 0681 -574 //// 210008 008 /// /// 05
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Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2175 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Oct 07, 2017 1:17 pm

It sure looks to be a very, very close call with regards to a possible direct impact to Greater New Orleans. The eyewall may indeed go right over them later tonight.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2176 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Oct 07, 2017 1:17 pm

looks like a normal process before deepening.. eye is clearing on visible.... just have to keep watching.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2177 Postby psyclone » Sat Oct 07, 2017 1:17 pm

Blown Away wrote:On satellite does not appear to be a strengthening storm anymore...


There does appear to be some degradation in recent frames.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2178 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Sat Oct 07, 2017 1:19 pm

it isn't degrading folks...its eyewall is forming. its deepening. Had this storm had 12 more hours it would be a very nasty storm.
Last edited by SEASON_CANCELED on Sat Oct 07, 2017 1:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2179 Postby Janie2006 » Sat Oct 07, 2017 1:19 pm

Huh. How about that. Decade-old Duracells fresh in the box work just fine. And I need more alcohol, otherwise I'm loaded for bear.

Now we play the waiting game. Time is almost up. And while it's too soon to say what could have been, I am encouraged by some of the signs this afternoon. He's running out of real estate quickly. No rain yet, but winds are easterly at 20.
Last edited by Janie2006 on Sat Oct 07, 2017 1:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NATE - Recon Data

#2180 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 07, 2017 1:20 pm

URNT15 KNHC 071818
AF305 0816A NATE HDOB 59 20171007
180900 2741N 08854W 6972 02994 9828 +137 +081 164016 017 034 001 00
180930 2740N 08856W 6962 03009 9808 +154 +091 180006 014 030 001 00
181000 2740N 08857W 6967 03005 9797 +168 +083 284005 006 024 001 00
181030 2739N 08859W 6979 02994 9801 +169 +078 294012 015 019 001 00
181100 2739N 08901W 6965 03016 9802 +174 +065 294014 016 019 000 00
181130 2738N 08903W 6979 03005 9804 +179 +057 298019 022 017 001 00
181200 2738N 08905W 6969 03021 9807 +179 +057 300017 021 013 002 03
181230 2739N 08906W 6954 03041 9807 +181 +052 306015 018 016 001 00
181300 2740N 08908W 6952 03045 9806 +185 +046 014013 017 020 001 00
181330 2741N 08909W 6931 03073 9807 +184 +044 029019 020 024 001 00
181400 2743N 08910W 6871 03146 9809 +176 +043 027020 021 024 001 00
181430 2744N 08912W 6778 03263 9814 +167 +039 029021 024 025 001 03
181500 2744N 08914W 6703 03363 9825 +158 +035 042028 035 032 001 00
181530 2744N 08914W 6703 03363 9830 +154 +034 016021 025 035 002 00
181600 2745N 08918W 6589 03520 9847 +136 +041 023021 022 040 001 00
181630 2745N 08920W 6513 03623 9852 +131 +035 038026 027 041 001 00
181700 2745N 08922W 6439 03727 9866 +120 +036 023029 032 041 002 00
181730 2746N 08925W 6370 03817 9871 +113 +026 014033 034 043 001 00
181800 2746N 08927W 6298 03911 9884 +098 +018 011036 037 040 001 00
181830 2746N 08929W 6127 04141 9881 +087 +000 022039 040 040 001 00
$$
;

Pressure 980mb.
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