ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Javlin]

You watch this WV loop of the E/CONUS and see were the push is to the N you have your flow/track

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071458
AF305 0816A NATE HDOB 39 20171007
144900 2534N 08906W 6970 03122 0009 +105 +059 241022 022 018 001 00
144930 2534N 08904W 6968 03125 0008 +104 +061 242023 024 019 001 00
145000 2534N 08902W 6969 03124 0008 +102 +068 241023 024 019 001 00
145030 2534N 08900W 6969 03125 0007 +105 +072 243024 025 020 002 00
145100 2534N 08857W 6970 03124 0009 +102 +067 240024 025 020 002 00
145130 2534N 08855W 6967 03127 0008 +105 +064 236023 024 026 001 00
145200 2534N 08853W 6969 03126 0009 +103 +076 241021 022 028 001 00
145230 2534N 08851W 6967 03127 0007 +105 +069 240024 025 030 001 00
145300 2534N 08849W 6970 03126 0009 +105 +064 240024 025 031 002 00
145330 2534N 08847W 6967 03127 0008 +105 +064 240024 025 032 002 00
145400 2533N 08844W 6967 03130 0011 +104 +070 244024 024 033 001 00
145430 2533N 08842W 6970 03129 0019 +100 +071 247024 024 033 001 00
145500 2533N 08840W 6968 03133 0021 +100 +071 246025 026 032 001 00
145530 2533N 08838W 6970 03132 0023 +100 +071 244026 027 033 001 00
145600 2533N 08836W 6969 03133 0023 +100 +072 245029 032 033 002 00
145630 2533N 08833W 6970 03135 0022 +102 +082 234035 037 034 002 00
145700 2533N 08831W 6966 03140 0022 +103 +070 244031 037 033 002 00
145730 2533N 08829W 6971 03132 0017 +106 +073 238031 032 034 001 00
145800 2533N 08827W 6968 03137 0019 +105 +074 241033 034 033 002 00
145830 2533N 08824W 6967 03137 0022 +102 +076 237034 035 033 003 00
$$
;

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/916681350350036992

[artist]

000
URNT15 KWBC 071504
NOAA2 WD16A NATE HDOB 44 20171007
145500 2718N 08404W 5002 05915 0343 -040 -090 150036 036 /// /// 03
145530 2719N 08402W 5184 05632 0326 -030 -064 152037 037 /// /// 03
145600 2720N 08359W 5362 05365 0309 -012 -051 155037 037 /// /// 03
145630 2721N 08357W 5563 05074 0092 +005 -021 160037 037 018 002 03
145700 2722N 08354W 5730 04833 0095 +019 -005 165038 040 /// /// 03
145730 2722N 08352W 5876 04632 0102 +030 +004 162038 040 022 001 03
145800 2723N 08349W 6046 04403 0098 +047 +007 166038 038 022 000 03
145830 2724N 08347W 6046 04212 0109 +052 +020 170037 038 021 000 03
145900 2725N 08344W 6271 04099 0106 +061 +019 166037 037 023 000 00
145930 2726N 08342W 6384 03956 0106 +071 +020 164036 037 021 000 00
150000 2727N 08339W 6500 03805 0110 +079 +025 165037 038 021 000 00
150030 2727N 08337W 6628 03646 0111 +089 +032 170039 039 021 000 00
150100 2728N 08334W 6726 03527 0108 +100 +035 170039 039 020 001 00
150130 2729N 08332W 6795 03443 0109 +106 +035 169038 039 020 000 00
150200 2730N 08329W 6903 03312 0111 +113 +040 168037 038 019 001 00
150230 2731N 08327W 6958 03246 0112 +118 +046 164036 036 019 002 00
150300 2731N 08325W 6955 03252 0116 +114 +060 163035 035 019 000 00
150330 2732N 08322W 6951 03253 0112 +115 +058 162034 034 021 000 00
150400 2733N 08320W 6950 03253 0111 +115 +053 164034 035 021 000 00
150430 2734N 08318W 6951 03251 0111 +115 +050 167035 035 021 000 00

[HurricaneBelle]

Going to be very interesting to see how far inland damaging winds go with Nate, given that it's moving about as fast toward the coast as I've seen any Gulf storm. I think western Georgia could be in for a rude surprise.

Also interesting is that in the wind probabilities, NHC is showing a non-zero (3-4%) chance of hurricane force winds on Long Island down the road. I'm guessing that's due to Nate possibly turning a bit more due E, emerging off New Jersey and getting baroclinic enhancement instead of the forecast track through New England.

[drezee]

Latest drop would suggest Nate is already a Cat2...

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... 86-104-103

[supercane4867]

Looks like we have a 90kt CAT2 according to dropsonde.

[Sanibel]

That possible rapid intensification from the black IR burst in the Yucatan Channel last night didn't pan out...Hope we didn't scare anyone, but Nate simmered down right afterward and geared more slowly up to its present correctly-predicted form by the National Hurricane Center...The outer band is 120 miles west of us and the center is already past us...Just some bush-shaking light gusts here...


This forward speed is more like that seen out in the Atlantic under the mid-Atlantic ridge...

[stormreader]

Latest drop would suggest Nate is already a Cat2...

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... 86-104-103

CDO really looking nice now. Pretty good chance we may see an eye appear.

[Rocketman]

I just don't like storms coming through at night. Camille is to blame for that.

[GCANE]

No impairments all the way to NOLA.

[Raebie]

Now a Cat 2.

Not yet, but NHC is forecasting an increase to Cat 2 at landfall.

Yeah. I swear TWC said it was now a Cat 2 and I got several news alerts saying the same thing.

[Sanibel]

No impairments all the way to NOLA.

Yet still an open eye which means it is having some kind of GOM problem...

[Big Easy Breeze]

Looking at the bias chart, it may go east of most of the models.

Gotta like where that Euro triangle falls on that chart.

I don't see any riight bias to this storm and it making landfall any further east than Biloxi.

[hurricaneCW]

Reminds me an East coast cane with that speed, would not be surprised to see some very strong gusts mix down (120+) on the east side given that forward speed.

[galaxy401]

Now a Cat 2.

Not yet, but NHC is forecasting an increase to Cat 2 at landfall.

Yeah. I swear TWC said it was now a Cat 2 and I got several news alerts saying the same thing.

Me too. Some of the news must have misread the advisory.

[GeneratorPower]

We’ve seen many a strong storm weaken on approach to the northern Gulf Coast. Maybe this time we shall see a strengthening storm through landfall. Could be some surprises to the upside on winds and surge.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KWBC 071514
NOAA2 WD16A NATE HDOB 45 20171007
150500 2735N 08315W 6950 03252 0111 +114 +049 167034 034 021 000 00
150530 2735N 08313W 6951 03253 0111 +114 +050 168033 034 021 000 00
150600 2736N 08310W 6951 03253 0112 +114 +054 169032 032 020 000 00
150630 2737N 08308W 6949 03256 0112 +115 +054 167032 033 020 000 00
150700 2738N 08305W 6949 03256 0114 +115 +040 165033 033 020 000 00
150730 2739N 08302W 6949 03258 0118 +114 +031 162033 033 019 000 03
150800 2740N 08300W 6948 03258 0121 +111 +035 160031 032 /// /// 03
150830 2740N 08257W 6950 03256 0119 +112 +040 160031 031 /// /// 03
150900 2741N 08255W 7193 02964 0117 +128 +047 166032 032 /// /// 03
150930 2742N 08252W 7492 02620 0113 +155 +060 167032 032 /// /// 03
151000 2743N 08250W 7710 02380 0108 +174 +077 165030 030 /// /// 03
151030 2744N 08247W 7804 02277 0111 +181 +082 168030 030 /// /// 03
151100 2744N 08245W 7809 02271 0112 +182 +089 171030 031 /// /// 03
151130 2745N 08243W 7811 02273 0114 +182 +087 168029 029 /// /// 03
151200 2746N 08240W 7809 02276 0117 +183 +074 168029 029 /// /// 03
151230 2747N 08238W 7811 02274 0123 +175 +092 172029 029 /// /// 03
151300 2747N 08236W 7810 02275 0126 +171 +102 173029 029 /// /// 03
151330 2748N 08234W 7809 02277 0127 +171 +104 174028 029 /// /// 03
151400 2749N 08231W 7829 02255 0129 +170 +105 173027 028 /// /// 03
151430 2749N 08229W 8058 02006 0126 +187 +104 170026 027 /// /// 03

[stormreader]

That possible rapid intensification from the black IR burst in the Yucatan Channel last night didn't pan out...Hope we didn't scare anyone, but Nate simmered down right afterward and geared more slowly up to its present correctly-predicted form by the National Hurricane Center...The outer band is 120 miles west of us and the center is already past us...Just some bush-shaking light gusts here...


This forward speed is more like that seen out in the Atlantic under the mid-Atlantic ridge...

I've got a little age on me, so I can relate the forward speed to an important hurricane of the past. Betsy (65) came rolling in from S Fl and made landfall at Grand Isle La as a major hurricane with this type of forward speed---early to mid Sept storm.

[Kazmit]

I hope they do a special advisory if it's really a cat 2 now.