ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Chris_in_Tampa]

5:47am CDT sonde: 986mb, 4 knots of surface wind
(4:31am CDT sonde was 986mb, 6 knots of surface wind)



UZNT13 KWBC 071058
XXAA 57118 99253 70876 08157 99986 27409 17004 00624 ///// /////
92568 24606 18510 85309 21407 14506 88999 77999
31313 09608 81047
61616 NOAA2 WD16A NATE OB 09
62626 CENTER SPL 2527N08757W 1050 MBL WND 18006 AEV 33304 DLM WND
16007 985753 WL150 16505 082 REL 2527N08756W 104707 SST 287 =
XXBB 57118 99253 70876 08157 00986 27409 11850 21407 22753 17217
21212 00986 17004 11923 19010 22872 17510 33850 14506 44753 13007
31313 09608 81047
61616 NOAA2 WD16A NATE OB 09
62626 CENTER SPL 2527N08757W 1050 MBL WND 18006 AEV 33304 DLM WND
16007 985753 WL150 16505 082 REL 2527N08756W 104707 SST 287 =

[artist]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AlabamaEMA
Need a ride to a @mobilecountyal shelter: Go to a regular Wave Transit bus stop & let the bus driver know #TSNate

[artist]

Derek Ortt
Derek Ortt @DerekOrtt
·
2h
On satellite imagery, it appears that #Nate continues to steadily intensify. The brutal 2017 season continues
2
Derek Ortt
Derek Ortt @DerekOrtt
·
3h
Replying to @DerekOrtt
Plus, the greatest tidal surge will be east of the center where the winds are onshore
Derek Ortt
Derek Ortt @DerekOrtt
·
3h
Replying to @DerekOrtt
That is important as the winds will be much stronger east of the center than they will be to the west due to the fast motion
1
Derek Ortt
Derek Ortt @DerekOrtt
·
3h
Morning global models are calling for a Louisiana first landfall of #Nate. Looks like just east of New Orleans

[GCANE]

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)

A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 10:46:53Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°15'N 87°32'W (25.25N 87.5333W)

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 986mb (29.12 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,442m (8,012ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,435m (7,989ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)

L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available

[GCANE]

[Chris_in_Tampa]

NOAA (750mb level) through 6:04am CDT.
Air Force (700mb level) through 6:08am CDT.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

Would this make NHC bump Nate into Cat. 2 (or strong Cat. 1)? I am asking a question.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT12 KWBC 071105
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162017
A. 07/10:46:53Z
B. 25 deg 15 min N
087 deg 32 min W
C. NA
D. 65 kt
E. 107 deg 28 nm
F. 175 deg 87 kt
G. 103 deg 36 nm
H. 986 mb
I. 13 C / 2442 m
J. 18 C / 2435 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234 / NA
O. 0.1 / 2 nm
P. NOAA2 WD16A NATE OB 10
MAX FL WIND 87 KT 103 / 36 NM 10:37:06Z
CENTER SST 28.7C FROM AXBT
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 170 / 04 KTS



Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 11:05Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 16 in 2017
Storm Name: Nate (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission: Fourth flight of a sequence of non-tasked research missions into this system
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 10:46:53Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°15'N 87°32'W (25.25N 87.5333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 359 statute miles (578 km) to the S (183°) from Pensacola, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 65kts (~ 74.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles) to the ESE (107°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 175° at 87kts (From the S at ~ 100.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 36 nautical miles (41 statute miles) to the ESE (103°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 986mb (29.12 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,442m (8,012ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,435m (7,989ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.1 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 87kts (~ 100.1mph) which was observed 36 nautical miles (41 statute miles) to the ESE (103°) from the flight level center at 10:37:06Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 170° at 4kts (From the S at 5mph)

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
CENTER SST 28.7C FROM AXBT

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Wide view.

NOAA (750mb level) through 6:04am CDT.
Air Force (700mb level) through 6:08am CDT.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Air Force

NE Quadrant at very last ob in this HDOB set:

SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind: 72 knots (82.9 mph)



URNT15 KNHC 071118
AF305 0816A NATE HDOB 17 20171007
110900 2519N 08755W 6971 03028 9857 +141 +087 354014 018 029 002 00
110930 2520N 08754W 6970 03024 9853 +140 +091 336008 012 026 002 00
111000 2520N 08752W 6969 03024 9847 +143 +086 349003 009 019 002 00
111030 2521N 08750W 6968 03020 9844 +143 +082 249003 004 018 002 00
111100 2522N 08748W 6967 03021 9856 +131 +086 104002 005 018 001 00
111130 2522N 08746W 6966 03018 9847 +134 +086 112005 006 016 001 03
111200 2523N 08745W 6965 03017 9849 +129 +093 106004 005 017 002 00
111230 2525N 08743W 6965 03017 9850 +127 +089 064006 008 019 002 00
111300 2526N 08742W 6965 03013 9837 +140 +068 067011 013 016 001 00
111330 2527N 08741W 6969 03008 9826 +150 +057 081008 011 017 000 00
111400 2528N 08739W 6969 03008 9828 +147 +064 069007 008 017 001 00
111430 2530N 08738W 6963 03011 9825 +146 +071 113011 013 021 000 00
111500 2531N 08736W 6969 03002 9818 +149 +087 130019 022 022 001 00
111530 2532N 08735W 6970 02998 9815 +149 +090 129028 030 028 001 00
111600 2533N 08734W 6970 02998 9823 +140 +091 130037 039 034 004 00
111630 2535N 08732W 6967 03001 9826 +136 +105 138048 051 042 003 00
111700 2536N 08731W 6967 03004 9830 +137 +093 136046 051 047 004 00
111730 2537N 08730W 6969 03007 9838 +137 +085 136050 051 068 008 00
111800 2539N 08728W 6952 03029 9864 +125 +119 142057 066 069 031 03
111830 2540N 08727W 6977 03012 9882 +113 +111 141059 064 072 020 00

[Frank P]

Cat 2 storm normally has pressure around 980 mb

[wxman57]

Interesting second center found by recon. So far, nothing to indicate more than a 65-70kt storm. Also, very little in the way of wind west of the center. Good for New Orleans.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

NE Quadrant:

Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.): 87 knots (100.1 mph)
Peak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind: 88 knots (101.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind: 72 knots (82.9 mph)



URNT15 KNHC 071128
AF305 0816A NATE HDOB 18 20171007
111900 2541N 08726W 6982 03014 9917 +109 +109 135064 066 072 021 03
111930 2542N 08724W 6960 03045 9916 +109 +109 138070 071 068 019 03
112000 2544N 08723W 6967 03041 9900 +112 +096 134067 071 069 019 03
112030 2545N 08722W 6970 03042 9903 +115 +086 135069 070 066 009 00
112100 2546N 08720W 6968 03051 9912 +112 +089 137073 074 063 006 00
112130 2547N 08719W 6963 03062 9914 +113 +092 138075 077 063 005 00
112200 2548N 08718W 6965 03064 9921 +113 +091 140075 077 058 005 00
112230 2550N 08716W 6973 03060 9934 +107 +095 141079 082 058 005 00
112300 2551N 08715W 6958 03080 9937 +108 +095 146081 082 059 006 03
112330 2552N 08714W 6974 03069 9946 +105 +093 145083 084 056 007 00
112400 2554N 08712W 6967 03079 9956 +099 +092 146087 088 053 008 00
112430 2555N 08711W 6960 03091 9960 +099 +093 148078 087 056 006 00
112500 2556N 08709W 6976 03076 9959 +107 +090 144070 074 056 002 00
112530 2557N 08708W 6966 03093 9955 +113 +081 144069 072 056 002 00
112600 2559N 08707W 6961 03103 9953 +119 +078 144064 068 054 003 00
112630 2600N 08705W 6962 03104 9962 +115 +079 143062 062 052 005 00
112700 2601N 08704W 6970 03099 9972 +111 +076 143066 067 050 006 00
112730 2603N 08702W 6967 03108 9974 +113 +069 143070 070 049 006 00
112800 2604N 08701W 6968 03108 9977 +114 +059 141069 070 050 003 00
112830 2605N 08700W 6965 03114 9984 +111 +051 142066 067 051 003 00
$$
;

[GCANE]

Looks like a large tower may be beginning to fire off.

[tolakram]

0z euro landfall location

[tolakram]

HWRF

[tolakram]

Track errors

[tolakram]

HMON near landfall

[Jelff]

Here is NOAA’s latest storm surge forecast. When this map opens it is zoomed in a bit on the Mobile Alabama area. Red indicates a storm surge of more than 9 feet.

If you zoom in any more then the surge forecast data does not appear. The zoom levels at which this data appears on the map is defined on NOAA’s GIS server. I have no control over that setting.

To see the map legend please click “Map Tips” in the upper left corner.

Map link: https://goo.gl/vYPTKg

[GCANE]

AF305 Reporting::

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 11:10:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°21'N 87°51'W (25.35N 87.85W)

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 988mb (29.18 inHg) - Extrapolated

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)

L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available