ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 070924
NOAA2 WD16A NATE HDOB 10 20171007
091500 2522N 08708W 7520 02458 9965 +151 +119 115063 064 042 002 00
091530 2521N 08708W 7525 02449 9965 +147 +132 116066 068 043 002 00
091600 2519N 08708W 7528 02442 9960 +148 +134 119066 067 044 002 00
091630 2517N 08708W 7519 02448 9955 +147 +132 118064 064 043 002 00
091700 2515N 08708W 7531 02426 9950 +150 +135 116065 066 044 002 00
091730 2514N 08708W 7513 02450 9944 +152 +138 119064 064 045 004 00
091800 2512N 08708W 7522 02435 9938 +153 +144 118065 066 047 007 00
091830 2510N 08708W 7524 02429 9938 +148 +146 115068 071 047 005 00
091900 2508N 08708W 7526 02424 9928 +153 +152 118064 065 050 006 00
091930 2507N 08708W 7510 02436 9922 +151 //// 123066 070 049 007 01
092000 2505N 08708W 7496 02446 9914 +150 //// 123060 064 052 007 01
092030 2503N 08708W 7499 02436 9908 +151 //// 122055 058 053 006 01
092100 2501N 08708W 7512 02418 9898 +158 //// 124054 057 056 007 01
092130 2500N 08708W 7526 02399 9893 +163 +146 118055 056 056 005 00
092200 2458N 08708W 7517 02405 9896 +155 +138 123055 056 057 005 03
092230 2456N 08709W 7520 02395 9894 +151 +138 124053 054 045 003 00
092300 2454N 08710W 7518 02392 9891 +149 +141 125051 053 039 002 00
092330 2453N 08711W 7512 02399 9880 +154 +153 126045 046 035 002 00
092400 2451N 08712W 7529 02372 9871 +157 //// 124040 043 034 003 01
092430 2449N 08713W 7517 02376 9853 +169 +153 127036 037 032 003 00

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 070928
AF305 0816A NATE HDOB 06 20171007
091900 2754N 09326W 4102 07381 0375 -135 -163 180023 024 /// /// 03
091930 2753N 09324W 4099 07386 0375 -136 -165 184023 023 /// /// 03
092000 2751N 09323W 4102 07381 0376 -140 -166 181026 027 /// /// 03
092030 2749N 09321W 4097 07390 0375 -140 -167 181029 029 /// /// 03
092100 2748N 09320W 4099 07383 0374 -138 -168 183029 029 /// /// 03
092130 2746N 09318W 4099 07383 0374 -135 -169 183028 029 /// /// 03
092200 2744N 09317W 4101 07381 0376 -137 -170 177029 029 /// /// 03
092230 2742N 09316W 4101 07387 0379 -136 -171 174029 029 /// /// 03
092300 2741N 09314W 4098 07390 0379 -140 -171 177027 028 /// /// 03
092330 2739N 09313W 4098 07392 0379 -140 -172 175027 027 /// /// 03
092400 2738N 09311W 4099 07388 0379 -137 -172 173027 028 /// /// 03
092430 2736N 09310W 4099 07389 0379 -136 -173 176026 028 /// /// 03
092500 2734N 09309W 4098 07389 0379 -137 -173 177025 026 /// /// 03
092530 2732N 09308W 4097 07393 0379 -139 -174 176024 024 /// /// 03
092600 2730N 09308W 4098 07390 0378 -140 -174 176023 023 /// /// 03
092630 2728N 09307W 4098 07389 0377 -141 -174 170023 024 /// /// 03
092700 2727N 09306W 4106 07376 0376 -140 -173 164023 023 /// /// 03
092730 2725N 09305W 4113 07361 0374 -140 -172 166023 023 /// /// 03
092800 2723N 09305W 4119 07349 0373 -138 -171 168023 023 /// /// 03
092830 2721N 09304W 4126 07337 0373 -136 -171 167023 024 /// /// 03
$$

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 070934
NOAA2 WD16A NATE HDOB 11 20171007
092500 2448N 08714W 7524 02368 9848 +174 +142 126031 033 029 003 00
092530 2446N 08716W 7525 02367 9835 +187 +145 130023 028 023 002 00
092600 2444N 08717W 7524 02369 9827 +199 +140 154017 020 026 001 03
092630 2444N 08719W 7527 02368 9832 +197 +139 139009 012 013 001 03
092700 2442N 08721W 7523 02380 9837 +195 +145 253004 007 005 002 03
092730 2440N 08722W 7528 02377 9848 +190 +139 276010 012 009 002 03
092800 2438N 08722W 7527 02381 9859 +182 +139 262012 014 017 002 00
092830 2436N 08722W 7524 02389 9870 +174 +148 253018 020 022 001 00
092900 2434N 08722W 7522 02396 9878 +174 +133 246018 020 023 002 00
092930 2432N 08722W 7524 02400 9886 +172 +134 254026 033 025 001 00
093000 2430N 08722W 7522 02409 9894 +171 +136 256035 036 027 002 00
093030 2428N 08722W 7525 02410 9903 +169 +127 248039 040 031 002 00
093100 2426N 08722W 7525 02416 9908 +170 +127 249038 038 031 002 00
093130 2424N 08722W 7523 02424 9918 +164 +129 249034 035 030 002 00
093200 2423N 08722W 7525 02425 9921 +164 +132 242033 034 033 002 00
093230 2421N 08722W 7526 02428 9928 +162 +134 246038 039 034 003 00
093300 2419N 08722W 7524 02435 9936 +158 +129 251038 038 033 003 00
093330 2417N 08722W 7527 02435 9940 +157 +132 246040 041 035 003 00
093400 2415N 08722W 7516 02448 9948 +150 +134 242041 041 038 003 00
093430 2413N 08722W 7513 02452 9952 +147 +142 240037 039 035 005 00

[Sciencerocks]

ext pressure near 983mb
Flight level 71knts
smrf 57 knts

Northeast quad

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 070938
AF305 0816A NATE HDOB 07 20171007
092900 2719N 09303W 4135 07322 0374 -135 -170 166022 023 /// /// 03
092930 2717N 09302W 4095 07395 0377 -134 -171 167025 026 /// /// 03
093000 2715N 09302W 4099 07388 0377 -134 -172 169022 025 /// /// 03
093030 2713N 09301W 4098 07389 0376 -133 -173 166022 024 /// /// 03
093100 2711N 09300W 4098 07386 0375 -128 -171 170023 023 /// /// 03
093130 2710N 09259W 4101 07383 0375 -128 -172 173023 023 /// /// 03
093200 2708N 09258W 4098 07388 0375 -128 -174 169023 023 /// /// 03
093230 2706N 09258W 4101 07382 0374 -127 -175 160023 023 /// /// 03
093300 2704N 09257W 4099 07383 0374 -130 -175 159024 025 /// /// 03
093330 2702N 09256W 4098 07384 0373 -130 -174 162021 023 /// /// 03
093400 2700N 09255W 4099 07383 0372 -130 -174 164019 020 /// /// 03
093430 2658N 09255W 4099 07383 0372 -129 -173 154018 019 /// /// 03
093500 2656N 09254W 4098 07386 0373 -131 -173 163020 021 /// /// 03
093530 2654N 09253W 4099 07384 0374 -132 -173 170025 026 /// /// 03
093600 2652N 09252W 4098 07385 0373 -133 -173 172024 025 /// /// 03
093630 2650N 09252W 4099 07383 0373 -130 -176 171024 024 /// /// 03
093700 2648N 09251W 4099 07384 0373 -130 -177 170024 025 /// /// 03
093730 2647N 09249W 4101 07381 0373 -127 -179 166025 025 /// /// 03
093800 2646N 09247W 4098 07387 0374 -132 -180 164024 024 /// /// 03
093830 2645N 09245W 4099 07385 0376 -135 -182 162025 026 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 5:34am EDT:

[AlabamaDave]

Isn't it odd for NHC to only have. Hurricane Warning extended about 35-40 miles east of where they have the center making landfall? The configuration of the warning seems opposite of most storms with an extension far to the west of the anticipated landfall point. I get that they're accounting for trajectory and west wobbles bringing hurricane force winds over SELA.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 070944
NOAA2 WD16A NATE HDOB 12 20171007
093500 2411N 08722W 7518 02450 9955 +147 +146 241035 037 037 007 00
093530 2409N 08722W 7504 02469 9960 +143 //// 241030 032 039 015 01
093600 2407N 08722W 7513 02459 9962 +140 //// 240033 036 039 014 01
093630 2405N 08722W 7513 02460 9964 +138 //// 239038 042 045 015 01
093700 2404N 08721W 7513 02503 9971 +133 //// 226044 045 042 018 01
093730 2402N 08721W 7513 02471 9976 +135 //// 227047 049 040 017 01
093800 2400N 08721W 7523 02459 9983 +132 //// 224050 052 038 011 01
093830 2358N 08721W 7525 02460 9984 +136 //// 226044 047 040 012 01
093900 2356N 08721W 7507 02483 9984 +140 +134 224046 048 039 006 00
093930 2355N 08721W 7517 02474 9988 +141 +127 226044 045 039 003 00
094000 2353N 08721W 7520 02472 9992 +137 +128 228042 043 038 004 00
094030 2351N 08721W 7530 02459 9996 +135 +127 224040 041 039 004 00
094100 2349N 08721W 7523 02473 0000 +135 +126 224039 040 036 005 00
094130 2347N 08721W 7523 02475 0004 +134 +129 223039 039 035 006 00
094200 2346N 08721W 7530 02466 0003 +135 +128 223038 038 035 006 00
094230 2344N 08721W 7525 02478 0009 +133 +127 224038 039 035 006 00
094300 2342N 08721W 7521 02479 0012 +132 +124 223039 040 033 006 00
094330 2340N 08721W 7525 02479 0014 +129 //// 224038 039 032 006 01
094400 2338N 08721W 7521 02483 0013 +130 //// 224039 040 030 007 01
094430 2337N 08721W 7517 02488 0013 +130 //// 224037 038 029 005 01

[Alyono]

NHC says no hurricane winds on W side of center and the stuck with following TVCN consensus and not slight W per ECMWF... Seems N.O stays out of the worst if current track verifies...

it should be west of NHC track. I've seen no reason to deviate from a landfall just east of New Orleans

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 5:44am EDT:

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT12 KWBC 070946
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162017
A. 07/09:26:48Z
B. 24 deg 43 min N
087 deg 20 min W
C. NA
D. 56 kt
E. 031 deg 22 nm
F. 114 deg 71 kt
G. 023 deg 30 nm
H. 986 mb
I. 15 C / 2452 m
J. 20 C / 2441 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234 / NA
O. 0.1 / 1 nm
P. NOAA2 WD16A NATE OB 04
MAX FL WIND 71 KT 023 / 30 NM 09:18:26Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 190 / 06 KTS

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 070948
AF305 0816A NATE HDOB 08 20171007
093900 2643N 09244W 4098 07387 0377 -135 -182 160026 027 /// /// 03
093930 2642N 09242W 4098 07390 0377 -135 -183 163025 026 /// /// 03
094000 2641N 09240W 4101 07385 0377 -134 -184 165025 026 /// /// 03
094030 2640N 09238W 4101 07384 0376 -134 -184 167024 025 /// /// 03
094100 2638N 09237W 4098 07386 0374 -131 -185 164025 026 /// /// 03
094130 2637N 09235W 4099 07381 0373 -130 -186 164026 026 /// /// 03
094200 2636N 09233W 4098 07384 0372 -130 -186 163027 027 /// /// 03
094230 2634N 09231W 4099 07382 0373 -129 -187 162026 027 /// /// 03
094300 2633N 09229W 4098 07384 0373 -127 -188 161025 026 /// /// 03
094330 2632N 09228W 4099 07382 0373 -123 -189 157023 024 /// /// 03
094400 2631N 09226W 4099 07384 0374 -119 -190 157023 023 /// /// 03
094430 2629N 09224W 4099 07386 0375 -119 -191 158023 023 /// /// 03
094500 2628N 09222W 4098 07387 0376 -115 -193 164023 023 /// /// 03
094530 2627N 09221W 4098 07388 0377 -115 -194 166020 022 /// /// 03
094600 2626N 09219W 4099 07386 0376 -113 -195 172020 020 /// /// 03
094630 2624N 09217W 4099 07385 0376 -112 -196 178019 020 /// /// 03
094700 2623N 09215W 4099 07387 0377 -118 -195 169018 019 /// /// 03
094730 2622N 09213W 4097 07390 0377 -119 -196 164016 017 /// /// 03
094800 2620N 09211W 4102 07380 0376 -121 -196 154018 018 /// /// 03
094830 2619N 09210W 4098 07387 0376 -123 -196 160016 018 /// /// 03
$$

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Wide view through 5:44am EDT:

[AlabamaDave]

The new track has it landfalling near Biloxi rather than the MS/AL border, so they did shift west a bit.

[Blown Away]

Isn't it odd for NHC to only have. Hurricane Warning extended about 35-40 miles east of where they have the center making landfall? The configuration of the warning seems opposite of most storms with an extension far to the west of the anticipated landfall point. I get that they're accounting for trajectory and west wobbles bringing hurricane force winds over SELA.

I think the tiny size of Nate, don't think there is a very big swath of hurricane winds and none on W side of center per NHC...

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Wide view.

NOAA through 5:44am EDT.
Air Force through 5:48am EDT.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 070954
NOAA2 WD16A NATE HDOB 13 20171007
094500 2335N 08721W 7519 02487 0015 +130 //// 215040 041 030 004 01
094530 2333N 08721W 7518 02491 0018 +128 //// 217039 040 029 004 01
094600 2331N 08721W 7514 02492 0016 +129 //// 214040 040 027 003 01
094630 2330N 08721W 7517 02491 0017 +131 +130 214039 040 027 002 00
094700 2328N 08721W 7514 02497 0019 +132 +127 215038 038 026 002 00
094730 2326N 08721W 7519 02494 0022 +132 +126 215037 038 024 002 00
094800 2324N 08721W 7517 02497 0023 +132 +122 214038 038 023 001 00
094830 2322N 08721W 7518 02495 0024 +133 +114 213037 037 021 002 00
094900 2321N 08721W 7518 02498 0028 +130 +108 207038 038 019 002 00
094930 2319N 08721W 7515 02501 0029 +131 +093 204039 039 019 002 00
095000 2317N 08721W 7517 02499 0024 +137 +098 202039 040 017 002 00
095030 2315N 08721W 7518 02499 0017 +143 +107 201038 038 015 003 00
095100 2314N 08721W 7518 02499 0021 +143 +093 200038 038 014 003 00
095130 2312N 08721W 7516 02503 0023 +142 +085 199037 037 017 002 00
095200 2310N 08721W 7513 02506 0023 +143 +084 197037 037 017 002 03
095230 2310N 08718W 7517 02504 0025 +143 +081 198036 037 011 002 00
095300 2311N 08716W 7514 02506 0025 +142 +086 198039 039 012 003 03
095330 2313N 08715W 7517 02504 0027 +141 +085 199038 039 019 003 00
095400 2315N 08714W 7517 02503 0026 +141 +086 198040 040 021 002 00
095430 2317N 08712W 7517 02502 0025 +141 +085 198042 042 019 003 00

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 070958
AF305 0816A NATE HDOB 09 20171007
094900 2618N 09208W 4100 07385 0375 -119 -196 166016 017 /// /// 03
094930 2616N 09206W 4098 07386 0376 -122 -196 161014 016 /// /// 03
095000 2615N 09204W 4098 07390 0377 -121 -195 162015 016 /// /// 03
095030 2614N 09202W 4098 07390 0377 -125 -195 167016 016 /// /// 03
095100 2612N 09200W 4101 07383 0376 -125 -195 168016 016 /// /// 03
095130 2611N 09158W 4098 07390 0377 -127 -196 163016 016 /// /// 03
095200 2610N 09157W 4100 07386 0377 -125 -195 163016 016 /// /// 03
095230 2608N 09155W 4100 07386 0378 -127 -195 157016 018 /// /// 03
095300 2607N 09153W 4098 07392 0380 -129 -194 151016 018 /// /// 03
095330 2606N 09151W 4098 07392 0380 -125 -192 157015 016 /// /// 03
095400 2605N 09149W 4099 07391 0380 -126 -192 160014 015 /// /// 03
095430 2603N 09148W 4098 07392 0380 -126 -191 147013 015 /// /// 03
095500 2602N 09146W 4101 07387 0380 -125 -190 140015 016 /// /// 03
095530 2601N 09144W 4099 07385 0375 -124 -189 145014 015 /// /// 03
095600 2559N 09142W 4099 07383 0374 -125 -188 166014 016 /// /// 03
095630 2558N 09140W 4101 07383 0374 -123 -189 153013 014 /// /// 03
095700 2557N 09138W 4095 07389 0373 -124 -189 141011 013 /// /// 03
095730 2555N 09137W 4098 07385 0373 -125 -190 148009 011 /// /// 03
095800 2554N 09135W 4098 07385 0374 -124 -190 150010 010 /// /// 03
095830 2553N 09133W 4098 07384 0374 -125 -190 152010 011 /// /// 03
$$
;

[GCANE]

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 071004
NOAA2 WD16A NATE HDOB 14 20171007
095500 2319N 08711W 7516 02503 0023 +141 +086 199042 042 020 003 00
095530 2321N 08710W 7516 02501 0024 +140 +086 197043 044 023 002 00
095600 2323N 08708W 7517 02500 0023 +140 +085 198044 044 023 002 00
095630 2325N 08707W 7516 02501 0025 +138 +089 199045 045 023 002 00
095700 2327N 08706W 7514 02504 0030 +133 +092 201044 044 025 002 00
095730 2329N 08704W 7518 02498 0033 +128 +096 200045 045 028 002 00
095800 2331N 08703W 7515 02502 0034 +129 +095 201046 046 028 002 00
095830 2333N 08701W 7515 02502 0034 +127 +099 199047 047 029 002 00
095900 2335N 08700W 7519 02497 0033 +127 +104 199047 047 031 002 03
095930 2337N 08658W 7515 02501 0034 +127 +105 199048 049 031 003 00
100000 2339N 08656W 7515 02502 0033 +127 +105 199050 050 032 003 00
100030 2341N 08655W 7518 02497 0034 +125 +110 199050 050 030 004 00
100100 2343N 08653W 7517 02496 0034 +123 +112 199051 051 032 003 00
100130 2344N 08651W 7519 02495 0033 +123 +109 198052 052 033 002 00
100200 2346N 08649W 7514 02499 0031 +125 +106 198052 052 033 003 00
100230 2348N 08648W 7514 02499 0031 +125 +104 198053 053 034 003 00
100300 2349N 08646W 7515 02498 0031 +126 +106 200053 054 034 003 00
100330 2351N 08644W 7518 02495 0033 +125 +103 199054 055 034 008 00
100400 2353N 08642W 7517 02497 0033 +124 +104 197055 055 036 002 00
100430 2355N 08640W 7517 02498 0033 +125 +101 198056 057 033 003 00