ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Bamagirl2408]

One question: if Keesler is unavailable, where would Recon fly out of?

Possibly Tyndall in Panama City? Not sure...

[Alyono]

One question: if Keesler is unavailable, where would Recon fly out of?

Possibly Tyndall in Panama City? Not sure...

probably Ellington Field

[caneman]

Fyi for those on the northern gulf coast. Just drove home on the Courtney Cmpbell Causeway in Clearwater and the water level was extremely high. Also saw a pic from the Dunedin causeway and same thing. In addition, my boss lives on Tampa Bay and has water in his yard and said he hadn't seen it like that in a long time. I fear the surge may be worse than what is being indicated

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 062222
AF307 0716A NATE HDOB 13 20171006
221230 2344N 08639W 4053 07464 0373 -121 //// 126019 020 032 003 01
221300 2342N 08637W 4169 07250 0357 -112 //// 103022 024 035 002 01
221330 2340N 08636W 4354 06914 0334 -093 //// 117020 024 032 003 01
221400 2339N 08634W 4558 06555 0303 -075 //// 121018 019 033 003 01
221430 2337N 08632W 4642 06408 0289 -066 -068 122019 021 033 002 01
221500 2335N 08631W 4662 06365 0284 -065 -071 117024 025 032 002 00
221530 2334N 08630W 4655 06386 0284 -065 //// 119021 024 032 002 01
221600 2332N 08628W 4664 06367 0283 -065 //// 125015 019 032 002 01
221630 2330N 08627W 4661 06370 0283 -068 //// 112018 020 033 002 01
221700 2329N 08625W 4659 06373 0285 -068 //// 111018 020 032 002 01
221730 2327N 08624W 4664 06370 0284 -065 //// 111019 020 031 002 01
221800 2326N 08622W 4660 06371 0285 -064 -067 117019 021 032 001 01
221830 2324N 08621W 4663 06373 0285 -062 -078 120021 022 032 001 00
221900 2322N 08620W 4660 06373 0284 -064 -078 114020 021 032 000 00
221930 2321N 08618W 4662 06369 0285 -064 -078 115019 020 031 001 00
222000 2319N 08617W 4662 06372 0285 -065 -077 111017 019 030 001 00
222030 2317N 08615W 4787 06171 0279 -055 -066 121018 021 030 001 00
222100 2316N 08614W 4946 05918 0263 -044 -048 124018 021 032 000 00
222130 2314N 08612W 5121 05642 0243 -031 -038 117018 022 031 000 01
222200 2312N 08611W 5297 05369 0225 -019 -019 118024 025 030 001 01
$$
;

Slowly descending.

[psyclone]

Fyi for those on the northern gulf coast. Just drove home on the Courtney Cmpbell Causeway in Clearwater and the water level was extremely high. Also saw a pic from the Dunedin causeway and same thing. In addition, my boss lives on Tampa Bay and has water in his yard and said he hadn't seen it like that in a long time. I fear the surge may be worse than what is being indicated

The tide cycle will be very important since we're dealing with a king tide...we'd be having some impressive tides even in the absence of a storm.

[otowntiger]

something looks off, those winds are quite low. I'd wait for a dropsonde to be sure there is not an extrapolation error going on

Winds tend to lag behind pressure drops but you are correct.

Pretty sure he meant 'pressure' was too low instead of winds, lol. The winds are probably about right. The satellite presentation is still not very impressive- it would have been hard to beleive it was undergoing that kind of intensification. This storm has a lot of work to do to get to get itself together.

[NDG]

The SE quadrant is where the strongest winds should be, deep convection keeps building there.

[Nimbus]

That noname vort really did moisten up the environment ahead of Nate.
Hopefully the fast forward speed verifie, down to 983 mb already, below 960 mb it would be nasty on the strong side of the storm.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 062232
AF307 0716A NATE HDOB 14 20171006
222230 2311N 08610W 5469 05112 0206 -003 -006 124032 034 030 001 03
222300 2310N 08608W 5625 04887 9990 +008 +002 131035 035 030 001 00
222330 2309N 08606W 5731 04732 9995 +014 +006 137033 034 031 000 00
222400 2308N 08605W 5823 04592 9988 +022 +011 140032 035 030 001 00
222430 2308N 08603W 5938 04431 9975 +037 +018 139034 035 030 001 00
222500 2307N 08601W 6066 04292 0008 +049 +024 139035 036 029 001 00
222530 2306N 08559W 6192 04126 0008 +059 +032 135031 034 030 001 00
222600 2305N 08558W 6319 03952 0017 +063 +033 126027 029 029 001 00
222630 2305N 08556W 6449 03788 0031 +064 +040 125029 030 029 001 00
222700 2304N 08554W 6569 03637 0029 +074 +052 130032 033 030 001 00
222730 2303N 08553W 6681 03492 0026 +082 +062 135034 035 030 000 00
222800 2303N 08551W 6788 03359 0028 +089 +063 137035 035 030 001 03
222830 2302N 08549W 7075 03005 0032 +102 +086 137036 037 030 000 03
222900 2301N 08548W 7399 02629 0028 +120 +109 138039 040 030 001 00
222930 2300N 08546W 7601 02400 0026 +136 +117 139038 039 031 001 00
223000 2300N 08544W 7817 02178 0037 +151 +128 137033 036 031 002 00
223030 2259N 08543W 8000 01976 0038 +161 +134 136036 038 030 001 00
223100 2258N 08541W 8199 01763 0039 +165 +160 138040 041 031 001 01
223130 2258N 08540W 8333 01624 //// +172 //// 132041 043 033 001 01
223200 2257N 08538W 8416 01535 //// +166 //// 124043 044 033 001 01
$$
;

[dhweather]

One question: if Keesler is unavailable, where would Recon fly out of?

they've already moved to Ellington Field, TX and Little Rock.


http://www.403wg.afrc.af.mil/News/Artic ... -missions/

[NDG]

Last vis sat loop before sunset, is trying really hard to wrap that convection all the way around.

[Aric Dunn]

unfortunately the llc keeps out running it. at least right now..

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 062242
AF307 0716A NATE HDOB 15 20171006
223230 2257N 08537W 8425 01524 //// +163 //// 119048 049 032 001 01
223300 2256N 08536W 8422 01529 //// +166 //// 120048 049 032 001 01
223330 2256N 08535W 8428 01524 0037 +172 //// 121048 048 031 002 01
223400 2255N 08533W 8430 01522 0033 +179 +171 123049 050 031 002 00
223430 2255N 08532W 8429 01522 0033 +181 +170 126051 052 035 001 00
223500 2254N 08531W 8431 01519 0041 +172 //// 127049 052 034 003 01
223530 2253N 08530W 8425 01524 0044 +172 //// 126047 049 036 005 01
223600 2253N 08529W 8428 01525 0046 +171 //// 128047 047 036 005 05
223630 2252N 08527W 8429 01521 0044 +174 //// 126045 046 037 006 01
223700 2252N 08526W 8430 01521 0047 +175 //// 129039 043 036 005 01
223730 2251N 08525W 8430 01523 0045 +176 //// 126039 040 035 006 01
223800 2250N 08524W 8428 01523 0049 +178 +178 124042 044 035 010 00
223830 2250N 08523W 8418 01532 0049 +181 +181 121047 049 036 012 00
223900 2249N 08521W 8433 01514 0049 +178 +178 128055 059 035 012 00
223930 2248N 08520W 8409 01542 0052 +174 +174 133057 059 055 013 00
224000 2248N 08519W 8443 01504 0052 +177 +177 135054 059 045 025 03
224030 2247N 08518W 8422 01530 0058 +175 +175 133050 052 038 024 00
224100 2247N 08516W 8430 01525 0050 +168 //// 136049 050 037 006 05
224130 2246N 08516W 8428 01529 0048 +174 //// 134047 048 /// /// 05
224200 2245N 08517W 8428 01524 //// +171 //// 137046 048 029 003 05
$$
;

59 kt FL, 55 kt SFMR.

[tropicwatch]

Some nifty 63mph surface winds NNE of the center quite aways out being found.

[bella_may]

Intensity is still stronger than was forecasted at this point. RI not impossible late tonight or tomorrow by any means

[tarheelprogrammer]

About to wrap up good in the next few hours.

[supercane4867]

Overall organizing trend today looks good. Fortunately it won't spend another day over the crazy high OHCs of western Caribbean

[aperson]

About to wrap up good in the next few hours.

Looks to me like the SE convection is starting to close off with the NW convection. The LLC won't be outrunning it for much longer.



I think the biggest ingredient now will be if mid level shear relaxes at all and if upper shear continues to keep moving westward. SSTs are solidly in the 29C range the whole way from here.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 062252
AF307 0716A NATE HDOB 16 20171006
224230 2244N 08517W 8429 01520 //// +170 //// 136046 047 032 002 01
224300 2242N 08518W 8429 01521 //// +169 //// 132049 049 032 002 01
224330 2241N 08519W 8431 01520 //// +164 //// 129051 053 031 002 05
224400 2240N 08519W 8428 01522 //// +170 //// 131050 053 032 001 05
224430 2238N 08520W 8431 01519 //// +172 //// 129048 050 030 001 01
224500 2237N 08521W 8427 01521 //// +171 //// 129050 051 031 000 01
224530 2236N 08521W 8433 01516 //// +175 //// 131049 050 031 002 01
224600 2234N 08522W 8428 01519 0028 +183 +173 132047 048 034 000 00
224630 2233N 08523W 8429 01517 0026 +185 +172 130047 048 034 001 00
224700 2231N 08523W 8430 01516 0027 +184 +173 127046 047 036 000 00
224730 2230N 08524W 8432 01514 0027 +182 +170 125046 047 034 000 00
224800 2229N 08525W 8429 01518 0026 +184 +176 129045 047 034 001 03
224830 2227N 08526W 8435 01510 0026 +181 +173 132048 049 035 001 00
224900 2226N 08526W 8425 01519 0024 +182 +173 133047 048 035 001 03
224930 2225N 08527W 8432 01508 0022 +183 +172 134048 049 034 001 00
225000 2223N 08528W 8424 01518 0021 +180 +172 134050 051 033 000 00
225030 2222N 08528W 8433 01508 0021 +181 +172 131049 049 035 000 00
225100 2220N 08529W 8426 01512 0018 +179 +170 132049 050 033 001 01
225130 2219N 08530W 8433 01503 //// +179 //// 129045 048 032 001 05
225200 2218N 08530W 8425 01513 //// +177 //// 122045 048 034 001 01
$$

[Aric Dunn]

Fact that the highest winds are well away from the center means its is not well organized.. which is good news.