ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

appears that was a bad reading.. looks like 991 mb

[CrazyC83]

One question: if Keesler is unavailable, where would Recon fly out of?

[NDG]

That sucks, the recon went straight south instead of sampling the SE quadrant where the strongest winds should be.

[leanne_uk]

My lil bro is currently at the Moon Palace in Cancun.... they are on a lock down of sorts as they prepare for Nate passing by over the next few hours.

Anyone have any radar links for around the Cancun area so I can at least get him to chill out a little?
Thank you in advance.

[supercane4867]

Remember, monsoon systems like Nate can have very low pressures with weak winds. The windspeed will eventually catch up when the inner core tightens.

[Aric Dunn]

also looking at the wind data.. still no core per se as the winds are not concentrated closest to the center. pretty flat wind profile.

and the convection is south of the center.. center is out runnning convection.. good news.

[NDG]

appears that was a bad reading.. looks like 991 mb

Yeah, you might be right, it went from 983mb to 991mb in just 30 seconds.

[bella_may]

Convection is blossoming on the NW side

[NDG]

Convection is blossoming on the NW side

And SE quadrant.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 062202
AF307 0716A NATE HDOB 11 20171006
215230 2511N 08728W 3978 07624 0400 -135 -212 122016 017 028 002 00
215300 2509N 08728W 3985 07606 0398 -135 -181 111014 016 027 003 00
215330 2506N 08727W 3976 07619 0398 -135 -194 110014 015 029 000 00
215400 2504N 08726W 3978 07618 0398 -135 -188 113014 015 029 000 00
215430 2502N 08725W 3978 07619 0397 -137 -186 111014 014 026 000 03
215500 2459N 08724W 3977 07624 0397 -137 -184 103014 014 026 000 00
215530 2457N 08723W 3978 07621 0398 -139 -184 101015 017 026 000 00
215600 2454N 08722W 3978 07627 0399 -135 -186 108016 017 026 000 03
215630 2452N 08721W 3977 07618 0397 -130 -194 099017 018 028 001 00
215700 2450N 08720W 3977 07624 0396 -130 -195 097018 018 028 001 00
215730 2447N 08720W 3978 07618 0395 -129 -198 098017 018 028 000 00
215800 2445N 08719W 3978 07618 0396 -126 -199 104017 018 028 000 00
215830 2443N 08718W 3978 07619 0394 -125 -194 094016 017 028 000 00
215900 2440N 08717W 3978 07619 0395 -121 -203 087015 016 029 001 00
215930 2438N 08716W 3976 07621 0394 -124 -211 093014 016 028 001 00
220000 2436N 08715W 3978 07617 0394 -125 -206 093012 013 028 000 00
220030 2433N 08714W 3977 07620 0395 -126 -204 086012 013 029 000 00
220100 2431N 08713W 3979 07619 0394 -127 -202 084014 014 028 000 00
220130 2428N 08713W 3978 07618 0395 -130 -199 080014 014 029 000 00
220200 2426N 08712W 3976 07620 0394 -130 -197 079015 015 030 000 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

Nate continues to quickly intensify. The NOAA plane just measured an extrapolated pressure of 983.0mb.

This is really starting to feel like Opal when people went to bed with a minimal hurricane and woke up to a strong 4

Opal had a much stronger inner core to work with though before RI'ing. That said, if the track shifts east into the Loop Current, that could be problems.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

As long as we are talking about model runs in the model thread all is good, we just don't want this filled with a bunch of back and forth which makes it hard to find anything. It is very rare when we take down posts in the discussion thread, it's a lot more common here to keep things focused and on topic.

well said

I love this forum this time of year i have learned so much. People in the office literally ask me what you guys say as always i tell them the disclaimer

[Aric Dunn]

low level and mid level circ are far apart deep convection is lagging well behind.. radar presentation is not very organized.. no inner core developing yet..

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... OAA-2-.kmz

[Aric Dunn]

Upper level and mid level winds are ideal for deepening.. but low level shear appears to be a problem.. coming from this large GYRE it is embedded in

[Alyono]

994mb from dropsonde with only 2 kts of wind

As I suspected, that 983 was off

[AutoPenalti]

something looks off, those winds are quite low. I'd wait for a dropsonde to be sure there is not an extrapolation error going on

Winds tend to lag behind pressure drops but you are correct.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 062212
AF307 0716A NATE HDOB 12 20171006
220230 2424N 08711W 3978 07615 0394 -130 -199 075014 014 031 000 00
220300 2421N 08710W 3979 07614 0394 -130 -196 079015 016 033 000 00
220330 2419N 08709W 3978 07615 0393 -130 -197 083016 017 033 001 00
220400 2417N 08708W 3978 07617 0393 -128 -200 083018 020 040 004 00
220430 2415N 08706W 3978 07617 0392 -127 -198 081019 021 040 006 03
220500 2413N 08704W 3976 07617 0391 -128 -196 076019 019 040 005 03
220530 2411N 08703W 3978 07613 0389 -130 -175 076021 022 039 003 00
220600 2409N 08701W 3976 07616 0389 -130 -172 073022 022 034 003 00
220630 2407N 08659W 3978 07615 0389 -129 -167 079019 021 028 003 00
220700 2405N 08658W 3978 07609 0387 -129 -151 088019 020 028 002 00
220730 2403N 08656W 3978 07607 0385 -126 -169 071018 019 028 002 00
220800 2401N 08654W 3979 07607 0386 -126 -178 059019 020 030 001 00
220830 2359N 08652W 3976 07617 0386 -131 -155 069018 019 029 001 00
220900 2357N 08651W 3978 07610 0385 -133 -143 081020 022 030 001 01
220930 2356N 08649W 3976 07605 0384 -130 -141 090017 022 027 003 01
221000 2354N 08647W 3976 07614 0384 -132 //// 097013 016 030 002 01
221030 2352N 08646W 3976 07609 0384 -131 -132 105014 016 031 002 00
221100 2350N 08644W 3978 07601 0382 -126 -126 109016 017 035 008 00
221130 2348N 08642W 3978 07602 0382 -133 -135 099012 016 035 003 01
221200 2346N 08641W 4010 07542 0378 -127 -131 104013 016 036 002 01
$$
;

[NDG]

Pressure higher than I thought, no RI going on.

URNT12 KWBC 062211
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162017
A. 06/21:42:46Z
B. 20 deg 39 min N
085 deg 34 min W
C. 700 mb 3037 m
D. 32 kt
E. 352 deg 44 nm
F. 108 deg 42 kt
G. 349 deg 31 nm
H. 994 mb
I. 11 C / 3062 m
J. 14 C / 3061 m
K. 35 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 7
O. .01 / 2 nm
P. NOAA2 WC16A NATE OB 05
MAX FL WIND 42 KT 349 / 31 NM 21:35:18Z
MAX FL TEMP 14 C 328 / 10 NM FROM FL CNTR
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 315 / 02 KTS

[CrazyC83]

994mb from dropsonde with only 2 kts of wind

As I suspected, that 983 was off

Sometimes that happens. I remember in Tomas 2010 there was a 983 pressure in Barbados reported but discarded because Recon concurrently had 997.

[CrazyC83]

Pressure higher than I thought, no RI going on.

URNT12 KWBC 062211
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162017
A. 06/21:42:46Z
B. 20 deg 39 min N
085 deg 34 min W
C. 700 mb 3037 m
D. 32 kt
E. 352 deg 44 nm
F. 108 deg 42 kt
G. 349 deg 31 nm
H. 994 mb
I. 11 C / 3062 m
J. 14 C / 3061 m
K. 35 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 7
O. .01 / 2 nm
P. NOAA2 WC16A NATE OB 05
MAX FL WIND 42 KT 349 / 31 NM 21:35:18Z
MAX FL TEMP 14 C 328 / 10 NM FROM FL CNTR
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 315 / 02 KTS

The 35C external temperature seems unlikely - that temperature at 700mb is unrealistic.