ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Is some sort of rapid intensification in the cards the models are not seeing or is the upper air no good??

I will say its getting its act together real nice..real quick

[bob rulz]

NHC went with 60mph and said it could be conservative even now.

Also:

Conditions appear favorable for continued strengthening up to
landfall on the northern Gulf Coast, and Nate is expected to make
landfall there as a hurricane.

So sorry PackMan, I'm going to trust the NHC over your analysis. No offense.

[bella_may]

Latest update has winds currently 60mph with 80!mph landfall near Biloxi. Expect intensity forecast to increase if this keeps strengthening

[gatorcane]

cool, dry air is not going to be an issue

The issue will be if the low level winds become more favorable. If the convergence increases, this can intensify quickly. If not, it will struggle

Yeah I see what you mean, it just seems like the area is not spinning quite enough in a situation where you expect RI. Plus it is moving so quickly to the NW now:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Alyono]

cool, dry air is not going to be an issue

The issue will be if the low level winds become more favorable. If the convergence increases, this can intensify quickly. If not, it will struggle

Yeah I see what you mean, it just seems like the area is not spinning quite enough in a situation where you expect RI. Plus it is moving so quickly to the NW now:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

However, the structure is supporting an intensification rate of .5 to 1 mb per hour. This would mean a pressure perhaps as low as 965mb at landfall. A true RI phase would result in a sub 950mb pressure at landfall (using the Holliday and Thompson definition)

[PSUHiker31]

I'm anxious to see what recon will say. This could be a borderline hurricane now... And tonight would be quite the opportune time for a rapid deepening phase.

[La Breeze]

Are there plans to drop the watches to the west of Morgan City anytime soon or will they keep them until landfall?

[sunny]

New Orleans is now under a hurricane warning...

[Blown Away]

Conditions appear favorable for continued strengthening up to
landfall on the northern Gulf Coast, and Nate is expected to make
landfall there as a hurricane. The new intensity forecast, which is
an update of the previous one, lies near the upper edge of the
intensity guidance. Given the current developments, there is still
a possibility of a period of rapid intensification as Nate crosses
the Gulf of Mexico. As alternative scenarios to the actual forecast
of steady strengthening, the ECMWF forecasts no additional
strengthening as Nate crosses the Gulf of Mexico, and the GFS/UKMET
forecast little additional strengthening until the last 12 h before
landfall.

Going against the ECMWF, Ukmet, and GFS for now...

[stormreader]

Already zipped past that buoy, winds there are now ssw.

We could be talking landfall in just over 24 hours at this rate...it's moving at like 25 mph right now.

Faster motion would mean stronger winds east of landfall.

And that's something that is not given enough credit. The forward speed most definitely adds an extra "pop" to the system as it makes landfall. There is more of a sense of "rushing upon you" as the storm makes its approach.

[Alyono]

Conditions appear favorable for continued strengthening up to
landfall on the northern Gulf Coast, and Nate is expected to make
landfall there as a hurricane. The new intensity forecast, which is
an update of the previous one, lies near the upper edge of the
intensity guidance. Given the current developments, there is still
a possibility of a period of rapid intensification as Nate crosses
the Gulf of Mexico. As alternative scenarios to the actual forecast
of steady strengthening, the ECMWF forecasts no additional
strengthening as Nate crosses the Gulf of Mexico, and the GFS/UKMET
forecast little additional strengthening until the last 12 h before
landfall.

Going against the ECMWF, Ukmet, and GFS for now...

UKMET has this under 980mb at landfall

[GBPackMan]

Please take a look at some 850mb temp maps. There is plenty of warm air all across the GOM, Caribbean and even into Texas, New Mexico and Arizona where 850mb temps are anywhere from 15-25C. There is no upper level cool air being sucked into this storm. Period. There's a reason models show this intensifying fairly quickly in the GOM and usually when in a favorable environment as depicted with high RH, low shear and very warm waters you see a storm that deepens very quickly. The Hurricane Center also is the best in the business and they have been constantly mentioning the possibility of RI and the favorable environment.

True BUT warm air does not necessarily mean humid air once you get more than 100-200ft off sea level. Most people focus on 100-200 miles at sea level near the path of the eye/center, so much of their expectations and suggestions are based on ground/sea level observations, which is why many here are expecting and suggesting RI.... Versus the models showing it failing to intensify too much are also looking at med and upper level interactions which can keep the core from warming up too much/too fast, or some mid to high level dry air continually interacting as is common in October storms. This is why they are still suggesting a weak Cat 1 at US landfall.

[Blown Away]

Conditions appear favorable for continued strengthening up to
landfall on the northern Gulf Coast, and Nate is expected to make
landfall there as a hurricane. The new intensity forecast, which is
an update of the previous one, lies near the upper edge of the
intensity guidance. Given the current developments, there is still
a possibility of a period of rapid intensification as Nate crosses
the Gulf of Mexico. As alternative scenarios to the actual forecast
of steady strengthening, the ECMWF forecasts no additional
strengthening as Nate crosses the Gulf of Mexico, and the GFS/UKMET
forecast little additional strengthening until the last 12 h before
landfall.

Going against the ECMWF, Ukmet, and GFS for now...

UKMET has this under 980mb at landfall

Nate has increased since 12z Euro/GFS/Ukmet, so the NHC not going with those models in short term...

[tolakram]

As long as we are talking about model runs in the model thread all is good, we just don't want this filled with a bunch of back and forth which makes it hard to find anything. It is very rare when we take down posts in the discussion thread, it's a lot more common here to keep things focused and on topic.

[NDG]

I think that the recon will find a pressure more like 990 mb if not lower. IMO.

[stormreader]

That Euro run is slightly west of the NHC track. Maybe initial landfall is right on but it continues north into Louisiana instead of hooking towards MS/AL coastline.

Yeah, you're not noticing that immediate NE hook at landfall on the last run. Would make more of a substantial hit on SE La with that run. Looks to be really intensifying, too. Should be a hurricane shortly. Wonder if NHC will adjust track back west a tad, or perhaps wait to see 0Z Euro run. Been out of touch today. Haven't seen most recent GFS. NHC really does like to tag very close to Euro. The lack of a NE hook at landfall could make quite a difference in the metro New Orleans area, if that plays out.

[bella_may]

That Euro run is slightly west of the NHC track. Maybe initial landfall is right on but it continues north into Louisiana instead of hooking towards MS/AL coastline.

Yeah, you're not noticing that immediate NE hook at landfall on the last run. Would make more of a substantial hit on SE La with that run. Looks to be really intensifying, too. Should be a hurricane shortly. Wonder if NHC will adjust track back west a tad, or perhaps wait to see 0Z Euro run. Been out of touch today. Haven't seen most recent GFS. NHC really does like to tag very close to Euro. The lack of a NE hook at landfall could make quite a difference in the metro New Orleans area, if that plays out.

They already did. Went from MS/AL line to Biloxi

[NDG]

Finally a fresh microwave pass.

[stormreader]

I think that the recon will find a pressure more like 990 mb if not lower. IMO.

Very close to hurricane intensity right now, IMO.

[Steve Cosby]

There is a tropical system to the north and to the west (Pacific) that is robbing Nate right now. Those have to get out of the way for the intensification to occur.