Texas Fall 2017

[Tireman4]

GFS totally lost the front next week, CMC has trended warmer, Euro is our last hope and its been all over the place with the tropics east of us, had Nate going to Florida and now it goes to New Orleans.

the Euro still has a front but its also going warmer. It's somewhat below normal Tue/Wed then warms back up.

GFS is now ABOVE normal the entire 16 days..

This happens all the time before big fronts come in...so...same same...LOL

[starsfan65]

GFS totally lost the front next week, CMC has trended warmer, Euro is our last hope and its been all over the place with the tropics east of us, had Nate going to Florida and now it goes to New Orleans.

the Euro still has a front but its also going warmer. It's somewhat below normal Tue/Wed then warms back up.

GFS is now ABOVE normal the entire 16 days..

How did they lose the front so fast?

[starsfan65]

Is it a bad run or is it for real?

[Brent]

I mean it is Texas, nothing's ever guaranteed here other than hot and dry...

[Yukon Cornelius]

Ah, model watching during fall and winter in Texas, a constant disappointment..

[Brent]

FWD, basically average temps at best

While the
ECMWF offers some truly fall-like afternoon temperatures (highs
in the 60s and 70s), it`s more probable that high temperatures
will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s areawide.

[Ntxw]

Yes in large part this week remains above normal...quite boring. Next week has hints of front and fall but models are wavering.

The first few days of Oct has DFW over 8F above normal. As I mentioned earlier its not high 90s or 100s but it is Oct so well into 80s is above. Lows should be getting into the 50s which we are missing by a lot. We are risking another warm fall since Sept was above. Hopefully we can make a comeback second half though my bets would be above normal again.

Why are the models wavering?

They are flatter with Alaskan ridge. But that is usual risk of 7+ days in model world. My guess is take the middle ground probably frontal passage with cooler air, not earth shattering and close to normal for a few days. 40s maybe for outside urban areas a day or two.

[starsfan65]

Yes in large part this week remains above normal...quite boring. Next week has hints of front and fall but models are wavering.

The first few days of Oct has DFW over 8F above normal. As I mentioned earlier its not high 90s or 100s but it is Oct so well into 80s is above. Lows should be getting into the 50s which we are missing by a lot. We are risking another warm fall since Sept was above. Hopefully we can make a comeback second half though my bets would be above normal again.

Why are the models wavering?

They are flatter with Alaskan ridge. But that is usual risk of 7+ days in model world. My guess is take the middle ground probably frontal passage with cooler air, not earth shattering and close to normal for a few days. 40s maybe for outside urban areas a day or two.

What is our normal high?

[Brent]

Why are the models wavering?

They are flatter with Alaskan ridge. But that is usual risk of 7+ days in model world. My guess is take the middle ground probably frontal passage with cooler air, not earth shattering and close to normal for a few days. 40s maybe for outside urban areas a day or two.

What is our normal high?

82 today, 79 by next Friday

Channel 8 had 70s Tue/Wed then back into the 80s for the rest of the 10 day

[starsfan65]

They are flatter with Alaskan ridge. But that is usual risk of 7+ days in model world. My guess is take the middle ground probably frontal passage with cooler air, not earth shattering and close to normal for a few days. 40s maybe for outside urban areas a day or two.

What is our normal high?

82 today, 79 by next Friday

Channel 8 had 70s Tue/Wed then back into the 80s for the rest of the 10 day

I hope the Euro wins out.

[starsfan65]

What is our normal high?

82 today, 79 by next Friday

Channel 8 had 70s Tue/Wed then back into the 80s for the rest of the 10 day

I hope the Euro wins out.

How high in the 80s?

[Brent]

82 today, 79 by next Friday

Channel 8 had 70s Tue/Wed then back into the 80s for the rest of the 10 day

I hope the Euro wins out.

How high in the 80s?

85 next Sunday

18z GFS is a little better, at least temps would be near average for a few days.

[starsfan65]

I hope the Euro wins out.

How high in the 80s?

85 next Sunday

18z GFS is a little better, at least temps would be near average for a few days.

is there high temps in the 70s next week.

[dhweather]

FWD seems to have backed off a little bit on that front and temps.

[Brent]

How high in the 80s?

85 next Sunday

18z GFS is a little better, at least temps would be near average for a few days.

is there high temps in the 70s next week.

maybe for a day or two

Far cry from what was shown the other day

To further this point the 240-hour Euro has a summer like pattern for the plains and east with a huge area of high pressure

[starsfan65]

85 next Sunday

18z GFS is a little better, at least temps would be near average for a few days.

is there high temps in the 70s next week.

maybe for a day or two

Far cry from what was shown the other day

To further this point the 240-hour Euro has a summer like pattern for the plains and east with a huge area of high pressure

i hate a summer like pattern!!

[starsfan65]

Is it because of Nate why the front isn't that strong?

[Brent]

Is it because of Nate why the front isn't that strong?

its probably related, remember after Irma summer got worse... hurricanes going east of us are usually not good

[starsfan65]

Is it because of Nate why the front isn't that strong?

its probably related, remember after Irma summer got worse... hurricanes going east of us are usually not good

Why is hurricanes east of us not good?

[Brent]

these models...

now the 0z GFS/CMC blast a big front through Monday Night/Tuesday

CMC is really cold with 40s in DFW Wednesday morning lol, GFS has highs around 70 Tuesday