ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Track along right side of cone would be really not good for the Tampa area with onshore SW flow. Let's hope the east shifts have stopped but if we learned anything from IRMA it could keep shifting up to near the point of landfall.

[crm6360]

156mb 100knt cane on sim.

Must be a pretty broad wind field to justify only 100kt at the surface.

[otowntiger]

While 90L is embedded in a large-scale monsoon gyre, the soon to be TC is looking more compact and organized than I was expected. I'm still worried that RI/EI is possible over the next couple days if it can avoid too much land interaction.

RL3AO: I appreciate your expert opinion as I do all of our Pro -Mets on here. Your thoughts here are a little ominous and duly noted. As a non professional I have a question: I know that "RI" stands for Rapid Intensification, what does "EI" stand for? Thanks!

Explosive Intensification - the more extreme case of RI
Drop in central pressure at a rate of at least 2.5 mb per hour for a minimum of 12 hours.

ok, thanks. I was thinking 'Extreme Intensification'. 'Explosive' sounds worse.

[chris_fit]

Amazing how the NHC pretty much scuffs the GFS for track guidance

[blp]

Amazing how the NHC pretty much scuffs the GFS for track guidance

I believe the NHC was never fully onboard with the upgrade. I heard they were against it when it was running as Parrallel but don't have confirmation so it is not a surprise to me. It has performed poorly so far with this one no doubt.

[Steve]

NAM 12Z looks reasonable too with pending landfall Escambia/Santa Rosa/Okaloosa Counties, Florida.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

[Blown Away]

06z GFS... NHC seems to be pretty much discounting the GFS and hitching on the Euro...

[northjaxpro]

Looking more and more that landfall probably will be somewhere from Panama City to Cedar Key. Models now are trending more east with time.

[NDG]

Amazing how the NHC pretty much scuffs the GFS for track guidance

In a way I am not surprised, it picked up on the system just 24 hours ago so a very low confidence on the GFS at this point especially when it does not do that well against the Euro's sypnotic forecast in the 4-6 day range.

[Ivanhater]

Scary track for NW Florida...starting preps today

[NDG]

Just as I thought RI is not out of the possibilities as mentioned by the NHC if it stays away from land while in the Caribbean.

Other than land interaction between 24-36 hours, environmental
conditions look conducive for intensification of the depression. A
large mid/upper-level trough is forecast to drop over the SW Gulf of
Mexico, providing a low-shear environment for the cyclone. Rapid
intensification is a possibility over the northwestern Caribbean or
southern Gulf of Mexico while the system is traversing rather warm
and deep waters, although it remains to be seen how separate the
depression becomes from a larger gyre over central America. The
official intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS model, on the
high side of the intensity guidance since much of the GFS-based
tracks show much more land interaction than the official forecast.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1441.shtml

[SunnyThoughts]

Scary track for NW Florida...starting preps today

Same here. Hopefully intensity stays in check, but considering this cane season, just don't know.

[Stormcenter]

I don't think they are entirely discounting the GFS at all. They are hedging their bets on the EURO but do put the disclaimer at the end of their discussion stating their forecast being of "low confidence" based partly on the GFS.

Amazing how the NHC pretty much scuffs the GFS for track guidance

[GeneratorPower]

Scary track for NW Florida...starting preps today

Good news is there is time to prepare. That’s really fantastic. Brings back memories of all those northern Gulf Coast hits of 2004-2005. Dennis, Ivan, Etc.

[psyclone]

That track verbatim could really pile up the water in the forgotten coast/big bend area. A place like St George island and St Marks would really be vulnerable. Dennis (05) delivered a big water rise in that area despite landfalling well to the west. The evolution of the size of the windfield will be worth monitoring in subsequent days...in addition to track adjustments.

[SunnyThoughts]

NAM 12Z looks reasonable too with pending landfall Escambia/Santa Rosa/Okaloosa Counties, Florida.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

How strong does that look, cat 1?

[Blown Away]

[Steve]

NAM 12Z looks reasonable too with pending landfall Escambia/Santa Rosa/Okaloosa Counties, Florida.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

How strong does that look, cat 1?

Yeah, +/-. Could be a Cat 1 or a higher-end Tropical Storm. It doesn't appear to be able to get the pressure all that low. Even in the Globals, it seems the 980s are most likely where the ceiling is. That's generally Cat 1.

[latitude_20]

NAM 12Z looks reasonable too with pending landfall Escambia/Santa Rosa/Okaloosa Counties, Florida.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

How strong does that look, cat 1?

High-end Cat 1 according to the latest HWRF. We'll know more once recon reaches the system and that data gets fed into the models.

[Javlin]

GFS,NAM and the CMC show the stronger trof I think I will put some stock in those esp.the CMC and NAM.The CMC deals more with this synoptic's of that region of the continent along with the NAM.Thinking LA/MS line to Destin.